I Am So Frustrated.Can You Guide Me???

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Well, I play Pick3s all the time, but not at CRC or, God forbid, anywhere in Maryland.

Funny you should mention that about Beyer. I stood behind him once at Saratoga and he must have made about 50 cheap exotic bets for one race. I, along with everyone else behind him, got shut out. I never stood in line with him again.

I should amend that as I once played a pick three many years ago. I had faith in two of the three legs where the horse was a likely odds-on, and had two selections in the remaining race. So, I bought two tickets and cashed in on a 26 dollar pick three. It was the only way I could get any value out of the situation, a rare one in which I found three consecutive races in which I felt confident.

I've never played one since.

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by clore1030

I should amend that as I once played a pick three many years ago. I had faith in two of the three legs where the horse was a likely odds-on, and had two selections in the remaining race. So, I bought two tickets and cashed in on a 26 dollar pick three. It was the only way I could get any value out of the situation, a rare one in which I found three consecutive races in which I felt confident.

I've never played one since.

I don't think I'd play Pick3s in Europe; it's quite difficult to win one in a row there.

At some U.S. tracks the Pick3 is a fantastic bet. I usually select two horses per leg for an eight dollar investment.

This is anecdotal, but last Sunday I hit the first Pick3 at Aqueduct. It paid $595 for a two dollar investment. So, I got half of that for my $8. Hard to disregard that kind of return.

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

I don't think I'd play Pick3s in Europe; it's quite difficult to win one in a row there.

At some U.S. tracks the Pick3 is a fantastic bet. I usually select two horses per leg for an eight dollar investment.

This is anecdotal, but last Sunday I hit the first Pick3 at Aqueduct. It paid $595 for a two dollar investment. So, I got half of that for my $8. Hard to disregard that kind of return.

Wow - congrats on that score. Sunday was a weird day at Aqueduct. The LPs were winning the sprints, and the EPs were winning the routes. Only in the ninth did that pattern vary, with the top two of my EP horses winning the 6 furlong heat, and combining for a $323 exacta.

[Cincyhorseplayer]

I guess I should have been a little more specific(and perhaps this isn't the thread for this).

Does the Sartin methodology still use the DRF variant?

If I'm wanting to make my own Quirin-Style pace figs is there a way to put them into Excel with the DRF variants and produce them???Or is there a program already existing that does this???

In addition,as I said I have the basic algorithms programmed into Excel and that's what I use to produce the ratings now.But that is after I have hand adjusted the numbers with the DRF variant.Is there a program that does the ratings that you just type in raw numbers with the variants that spits out the ratings???

And if so,does that same program take into account the track to track adjustments,in addition to the DRF variant????

I think I can adjust my pars to the current reality when I get info info from my own style of track profiles.But especially at the beginning of meets it's very tenuous comparing the basic skills of horses coming from so many different tracks.

There is so much to interpret once you have the data anyway that it's almost as if there is no time to think once the work has been put in.That's the big issue I'm having right now.I don't know how to write complex Macros on Excel and I know nothing of older or current computer programs for the Sartin Methodology.Especially to the needs I'm trying to get to,and hopefully without breaking the pocket book!!

Thanks so much for your suggestions thus far.I still have yet to research some of them but I difinitely will in the near future.

Rod

[Charlie D]

Cincy

The Modern Sartin Methodology use Trackmaster data

[Ted Craven]

Rod,

Sartin programs since about the mid 1990's have made use of TrackMaster/Equibase DTV and ITV adjustments. Arguably, unless one is a diehard do-it-yourself type, or simply has a better idea, any of the pre-fabricated, commercially available sets of DTV/ITVs (e.g. HSH, HDW, CJ, TrackMaster) would seem to leave more time in the handicapper's hands to do the real brain work of race analysis and wager strategy. If the end goal is to make money, I'd argue for deploying scarce resources (brain time) where needed the most i.e. not grunt calculation work.

Unfortunately, TrackMaster DTV/ITVs (like HDW) have always been embedded in data sets provided for their or 3rd party software (e.g. Sartin stuff) and so aren't much use without the accompanying software, and not much use for individual home-made applications.

Then again, I'd also make the argument that winning money is more important than tinkering with software (unless one is a tinker). You could try on one of the Sartin programs (e.g. RDSS) and contrast its outputs to your Excel analysis (both for time cost and cyclical effectiveness). Even throw up some mystery races and get a round-table analysis here of how different handicapping approaches (even with the same software, data and adjustments) could shine some light. For example, to see how one would analyse a race without knowing how the track was playing (no model), compared to knowing which readouts to favour if you had a recent model (e.g. the Early/Late range). Just throwing out ideas.

And I see Charlie's RDSS settings above aren't using TrackMaster's ITV and DTV settings anyway - but there you go. They also spell and talk funny across the pond (Brit).

yours,

Ted

[Cincyhorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Rod,

Sartin programs since about the mid 1990's have made use of TrackMaster/Equibase DTV and ITV adjustments. Arguably, unless one is a diehard do-it-yourself type, or simply has a better idea, any of the pre-fabricated, commercially available sets of DTV/ITVs (e.g. HSH, HDW, CJ, TrackMaster) would seem to leave more time in the handicapper's hands to do the real brain work of race analysis and wager strategy. If the end goal is to make money, I'd argue for deploying scarce resources (brain time) where needed the most i.e. not grunt calculation work.

Unfortunately, TrackMaster DTV/ITVs (like HDW) have always been embedded in data sets provided for their or 3rd party software (e.g. Sartin stuff) and so aren't much use without the accompanying software, and not much use for individual home-made applications.

Then again, I'd also make the argument that winning money is more important than tinkering with software (unless one is a tinker). You could try on one of the Sartin programs (e.g. RDSS) and contrast its outputs to your Excel analysis (both for time cost and cyclical effectiveness). Even throw up some mystery races and get a round-table analysis here of how different handicapping approaches (even with the same software, data and adjustments) could shine some light. For example, to see how one would analyse a race without knowing how the track was playing (no model), compared to knowing which readouts to favour if you had a recent model (e.g. the Early/Late range). Just throwing out ideas.

And I see Charlie's RDSS settings above aren't using TrackMaster's ITV and DTV settings anyway - but there you go. They also spell and talk funny across the pond (Brit).

yours,

Ted

Ted,

Being as you've read a few of my posts I just wanted to ask you a few questions because I'm obviously at the infantile stages of where the methodology began but I'm willing to learn.Plus there seems to have been divergent paths within the evolution of the methodology as I see some conflicting opinions occasionally.And I have to maintain a hierarchy of needs to implement for the present and long-term future.

Here And Now

-I would much rather use a program to produce the numbers than what I'm doing with Excel because I'm just learning a lot of the basics to it also.I would like to buy a program to use with the simple knowledge I have of these materials.But if the programs are dated as to track to track adjustments( because pars change) or if I can't enter raw data such as fractional times,beaten lengths,and DRF variants.Is there any way to be able to put in new material such as the Horsestreet Pars on CDRom????

-I'd like to be able to find a way to use the ratings without having to hand adjust fractional times by the DRF variant and track to track adjustments.What is your best recommendation on something I can utilize on the races now???

Future

Where can I get reading materials and is there available a chronological list of such reading materials on how the game has evolved???I have read Brohamer's book,nothing more.And I know it will take some time for me to digest the materials and think through the ideas to see where I want to take my game in the present reality of the methodology.I'd like to be able to talk on this board more!!!!But I don't understand some of the terms,what they imply,and where it all evolved from point A to B.So it would be easier to start reading the work and asking questions.

Any suggestions I would be grateful for.

Rod

[Ted Craven]

Rod,

Whew, holiday time warp, sorry for this delay! You have been mentioning DRF supplied daily variants (DTV) and current inter-track variants (ITV) such as HSH pars. I'm not sure if that means you really like those variants and those track-to-track pars and want to use only those, or if you mean simply 'good and standardized figs'. Naturally I understand you'd like software to do the number crunching for you.

If you like DRF/HSH I think it is possible to use some older Sartin software like Synergism 4 and construct a table of current track pars from major suppliers. Syn4 users could verify this. However, I think that puts you back to hand data-entry.

If what you really mean is that you want reliable and reputable DTV and ITV adjustments in up to date Methodology software which calculates all the Sartin factors - at the risk of sounding like an ad, I could recommend RDSS. The TrackMaster supplied ITV and DTVs work pretty well most of the time (except when they don't...). You get to see the DTV figs on the readouts, but you don't get to see the ITV figs - they are just embedded in the adjusted numbers. RDSS is pretty cheap to get going and use ongoing, but some work to get the hang of contender and paceline selection, readout interpretation and wagering strategy. Just let me know (end of 'ad'). I hope I understood your question re 'Here and Now'.

Re 'Future' and ongoing education, or covering the distance between Modern Pace Handicapping (1991) and 2008, I would recommend 3 steps:

- for historical purposes and also for grasping the mechanics behind some of the still-used modern ideas, get Pace Makes the Race (Dick Schmidt still sells some copies, or his son does via eBay - write to him c/o PaceAdvantage). If you can find the 1st Edition, so much the better.

- delve into the Pace and Cap Sartin Library (but pack a lunch). Read the Dynamics of Incremental Energy and Follow Ups 73 - 88. Many of the screenshots referred to in concept presentation in those later Follow Ups are from older DOS programs but the Factors referred to are still in use today.

- browse through the Hat Check Forum and go over Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step approach to the Match Up

You'll need a Password to the Library, and I'll send that to you by PM. I think it is entirely what Pace and Cap is about to provide a forum for folks who have been using these concepts for a while to be able to respond to others who want to catch up or get the hang of it, like you. You could ask questions as you go along, and as your vocabulary expands, start posing finer and finer grained questions.

Hope that also is in the direction your were thinking.

Happy Holidays!

Ted