La Brea and Malibu - both at 7 furlongs

[Mark]

As I understand this concept extra energy expended or reserved in the 1st fraction results in its doubling in the final fraction, not final time. I believe this can be validated by considering the value of a 5th of a second in the first fraction when the horses are fresh from the gate and traveling at their maximum speed, something usually around 60 fps. Late in the race during the 3rd fraction all but the deepest closers will be traveling 52 to 53 fps. However, the reserved energy allows them to maintain a more gradual deceleration whereas the Early horses are usually falling off the cliff! The net is a final time adjustment about equal to the energy lost or reserved in the first fraction!

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Mark

As I understand this concept extra energy expended or reserved in the 1st fraction results in its doubling in the final fraction, not final time. I believe this can be validated by considering the value of a 5th of a second in the first fraction when the horses are fresh from the gate and traveling at their maximum speed, something usually around 60 fps. Late in the race during the 3rd fraction all but the deepest closers will be traveling 52 to 53 fps. However, the reserved energy allows them to maintain a more gradual deceleration whereas the Early horses are usually falling off the cliff! The net is a final time adjustment about equal to the energy lost or reserved in the first fraction!

Mark...

Bradshaw stated that it was up to the horse to redistribute its saved energy on the rest of the race.

First call expended or conserved then no change in second fraction;
therefore change of energy adjusted on final times....

[lone speed]

example: 6 Furlong race with the three fractions

horse goes gate to wire:

22.0 for 2 furlongs then 45.0 for 4 furlongs with final time of 1:10.0

final fraction of 25.0

if horse slows down one tick at first call:
(if we apply to final fraction then we have) 25.0 final fraction minus 2 ticks or 24.3 then we have

22.1 for 2 furlongs then 45.1 for 4 furlongs plus 24.3; we end up with 109.4 or only one tick faster at the finish.

looking at the other example:

we have ;

22.1 for 2 furlongs then 45.1 for 4 furlongs plus 24.2; we end with 109.3 for final time or two ticks faster at the final times as postulated by Jim Bradshaw and Huey Mahl....

[Mark]

This 2 for 1 is mentioned and "quoted" in a number of places, books etc. Your post is crystal clear but i have seen it elsewhere from Jim himself where he talked about 3rd fraction and when I have thought it through, that makes more sense to me. For instance, if an E horse runs 1/5 faster than his "norm" in the first fraction where will it impact? Again, my understanding is that his second fraction will be the same as normal for him so the 2nd call may be faster by 1/5 of a second. Either way, the only place for this early extra expenditure can impact is in the final fraction when the increased deceleration from reaching his peak speed earlier will make have its affect. That affect is premature deceleration. Think about it. If a horse enters the final fraction at approximately 56 fps and has a final fraction rating of 50 fps, linearly that means that his velocity at the wire was about 44 fps. That doesn't take into effect the amount of energy consumed in "fighting" for a quarter or half mile.(sprint). In fact, the extra expenditure of early speed and fighting may have the horse up the track as he struggles to stay upright. Having run track myself in high school, I have experienced this and when you hit the wall, its as though you no longer have control of your body parts. Quality of horse will have a bearing for sure and I am in complete agreement with your view of variants and speed figures. However, some folks figure out a way to make that work for themselves, although I don't know how.
Anyway, few seem to grasp this concept and that is probably why as Matchers we can still enjoy a diet of fine mutuels.