Met Mile & HANDICAP races

[For The Lead]

Read through the teaching thread. There are a few in here that talk about various conditions.

[Bill V.]

Hello FTL

No worries, It was me who misspoke, I am aware that
the starter allowance races are not a series
I should have said at Parx In the starter allowance condition,
they also have sub conditions for lifetime wins
There is also a condition for the starter allowance races
for a time period, These are generally in the $8000 and $10000
range.

Here are the conditions for the 7th race at Parx on May 21
Its a Starter Alw 8000 which means any horse can get in
to the race as long as it has run in an $8000 or less claiming race
in 2012 -13






What I find interesting is there are no $8000 claimers at Parx
They 6 sub conditions for the CL 7500 level
and the have $10000 claimers I wonder why then they set the
price at $8000?

Also I was being facetious about the Handicap races
Part of the reason for the low odds in the 3 handicap races
the last 3 days was these were the first 3 races of the Parx
turf season and early in the turf season there are many horses off long layoffs or have no turf form The 3 winning horses had recent turf lines.
Actually the May 26 race was taken off the turf

Bill

[For The Lead]

I don't think Penn National is a track that most people follow, but this past Saturday night it presented the best card they have ever put on in the history of the track. That is NOT my opinion. It is a fact as presented by the track itself. They presented 5 STAKES races and 2 HANDICAP races as part of their 9 race program. One stakes race carried a purse of $500,000, The LARGEST purse ever presented in the history of the track, but it is the 2 HANDICAP races I want to focus on.

I started this thread with some, what I hope to b helpful, information with regard to handicap races. In light of that, I feel compelled to expand on that information as all handicap races are not straight forward. In other words, not every handicap race has three horses that are "different" weights and are the top three weights in the race, such as, 123, 121, 119. Sometimes there are multiple horses carrying the same high weight or second high weight or even 3rd high weight. The second race at Penn National Saturday night was one such race.

Below you will see that chart of this race. If you look at the weights, the top three high weights encompass the ENTIRE FIELD. 5 horses came in carrying 122lbs. 4 horses came in carrying 119lbs. And the remaining horse came in carrying 118lbs. This is not a playable race based on the concept of using the top 3 high weighted horses as your primary, or only, contenders.



The 3rd race at Penn National Saturday night was the other handicap race on the card. Again, this is not a playable race based on the concept of using the top 3 high weight horses as your primary, or only, contenders. Why? 2 horses came in carrying 117lbs. 3 horses came in carrying 116lbs. 2 horses came in carrying 115lbs. That covers the top 3 high weights, but it also covers every horse in the race except for 1. Here's the chart of that race.



The point I am making here is, don't take the information I set forth at the outset of this thread and think that it applies to all handicap races regardless of how many horses are included in that top 3 weights like the ones I have discussed here. It doesn't!

I would constrict the number of horses to the basic "3" high weights or perhaps "4".

[Bill V.]

Thanks FTL

I don't know if you remember the problem race from 4/16

The winner of that race was Easter Gift
here is the link
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...92&postcount=3

I did not down load Penn Saturday night. I had no idea of the great card
But I knew something was up because they never show Penn at Surfside
at Del Mar, but there it was up on the main giant screens. When I saw
Easter Gift in the warm ups and post parade
I ran and put $5 buck on it to win, Just for the fact it beat Ruler on Ice and
I had it to win that day at Parx.
Great to see it win again on the big stage

Bill

[vderdak]

FTL,

Took your advice and played the two highest weights in the Brooklyn Handicapyesterday and sure enough the high weight won at 7-1.

Thanks again for for pointing out another way to look at these races.

[vderdak]

FTL

Another score on the high weighted horse for the Solana Beach Handicap this evening at Del Mar Race #8 Halo Dolly #2 at 2.5-1. decent odds with 5 horses. This insight you gave us just pays over and over and over.

[For The Lead]

I am very happy to hear that!

There was also a "Starter Handicap" at Monmouth today. The co-highweight won and paid $9.40.

[Bill V.]

I worked this race when I saw FTL'S post

I made this video for FTL, I wanted to show him and ask his advice on
my work. FTL wrote back and told me to look closer at the conditions of the race.
"This is a "series" of races that has a $10,000 BONUS. In order for the owner/trainer to be eligible for that bonus,
the horse has to start in two out of the three races in the series"

Thanks FTL I missed that part.

Here Is my video.

highweight SH.mp4

I'm talking very slow and not loud.
I guess This is my voice after a full day of races LOL
Bill

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I don't think Penn National is a track that most people follow, but this past Saturday night it presented the best card they have ever put on in the history of the track. That is NOT my opinion. It is a fact as presented by the track itself. They presented 5 STAKES races and 2 HANDICAP races as part of their 9 race program. One stakes race carried a purse of $500,000, The LARGEST purse ever presented in the history of the track, but it is the 2 HANDICAP races I want to focus on.

I started this thread with some, what I hope to b helpful, information with regard to handicap races. In light of that, I feel compelled to expand on that information as all handicap races are not straight forward. In other words, not every handicap race has three horses that are "different" weights and are the top three weights in the race, such as, 123, 121, 119. Sometimes there are multiple horses carrying the same high weight or second high weight or even 3rd high weight. The second race at Penn National Saturday night was one such race.

Below you will see that chart of this race. If you look at the weights, the top three high weights encompass the ENTIRE FIELD. 5 horses came in carrying 122lbs. 4 horses came in carrying 119lbs. And the remaining horse came in carrying 118lbs. This is not a playable race based on the concept of using the top 3 high weighted horses as your primary, or only, contenders.

Attachment 34392

The 3rd race at Penn National Saturday night was the other handicap race on the card. Again, this is not a playable race based on the concept of using the top 3 high weight horses as your primary, or only, contenders. Why? 2 horses came in carrying 117lbs. 3 horses came in carrying 116lbs. 2 horses came in carrying 115lbs. That covers the top 3 high weights, but it also covers every horse in the race except for 1. Here's the chart of that race.

Thanks for this thread FTL.

I'm not understanding what makes a card playable or not. Why wouldn't the two horses carrying 117 be the pics based on the discussion?

If you get the chance to respond I'd appreciate it.

[Appy]

Another very good and beneficial thread!

FTL said, "The idea is to make the best horse (in the racing secretary's opinion) carry the most weight and then scale the weights down from there."

True. In theory the weight difference is supposed to create a field wherein each entry has equal chance of winning. But your stats show it doesn't work that way as the more heavily weighted horses win anyway.
Very revealing and potentially profitable.