Last Night at Mountianeer 12-15-08

[shrink1]

Bill,
Thanks.
Ira

[Ted Craven]

Ira,

RDSS can be used either as a tool to assist in applying Matching techniques taught by Jim Bradshaw and RichieP (i.e. raw data, projected pace, tandems, positional colours, power moves, power lines, fighters, etc) - OR - the way Doc Sartin evolved his Methodology which uses equalized, normalized and adjusted call times, and velocities, energy distribution, compounded factors and deceleration - based on those adjusted times.

If one approach is working for you, and your records report a hit rate and average mutuel producing a consistent profit from a cycle of races, and the consecutive losses are not too psychologically tough - please stick with that and congratulations! I am told that both approaches can lead to this happy result. I myself have never been comfortable enough with the raw/visual Match Up alone (using RDSS or the DRF). The adjusted figures work just fine for me.

However, I was stunned to work this race referred to by Richie: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4876, using my normal adjusted approach (failing horribly), then discovering after the fact that the 11-1 winner possessed 2 lines with the fastest raw 1st and 2nd call times on the board, despite weak overall Total Energy. The 5 Step Match Up approach was all over that one (only the E/L revealed anything useful to compare), and I reaffirm the value I know to lie in finding FAST horses (i.e. visually Early, and dominant at the 1st and 2nd calls, fighters even better).

So swing left or swing right, but swing for the bleachers!

Ted

[shrink1]

Ted,
Thanks for the encouragement. Your program is great and has led me on to many nice priced horses. I am always looking to improve my skills, and if I am missing something in using the program I would like to know about it. Any helpful hints would be greatly appreciated. That is why I asked the question in the first place.
Ira

[raceman5]

for Bill V. Bill you had said that you do not use any line where the horse is beaten by more than 7.50 lengths. My question for you is this. Lets say you have a 6fur sprint. the horses last 3 lines are all at 6f. but in his last 3 races he finished 2nd beaten by 9 next race fin 3rd beaten by 10 lengths and third race back fin 4th beaten 9 lenghts. What do you do in that case?


Oh by the way RDSS users. I was at Tampa Bay downs yesterday and the software had the 78.00 turf horse in the 8th race yesterday right on top after scratches. For the winner i used his pace line from Sept 12 as his line from Nov 8 was a troubled line. Nailed the p3 for 1,000. I think this is a good time to be playing Tampa because horses are shipping in from all over the place.

Bob

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by raceman5

Oh by the way RDSS users. I was at Tampa Bay downs yesterday and the software had the 78.00 turf horse in the 8th race yesterday right on top after scratches. For the winner i used his pace line from Sept 12 as his line from Nov 8 was a troubled line. Nailed the p3 for 1,000. I think this is a good time to be playing Tampa because horses are shipping in from all over the place.

Bob

Way to go Bob - Merry Christmas! I do think the TrackMaster ITVs do a good job in general of helping to equalize different tracks, so the time of a meet where shippers are over represented and misunderstood does offer great wagering against some relatively uninformed money.

I'll let Bill respond to the 1st part of your question (but remember his 7.5 beaten length comment applies to the Val mode due to the way Val treats BL during the 3rd fraction - I would not be so hesitant about BL=7.5 if you are using Spec mode).

Ted

[raceman5]

thanks Ted. I am using Spec.

[Bill V.]

Oh well. thanks for asking. any way Its probably best to use RDSS in Spec mode and do the race the way that will win for you


Bill

[raceman5]

i still want your input on the validator and how you use it differently then spec.


Bob

[Ted Craven]

Bob,

I don't use the Validator mode of RDSS, that's why I wanted to defer to Bill on that. He is a master of Validator as far as I am concerned (DOS or Windows). I hope he will respond. And perhaps other RDSS or Val4 users - I know you're out there.

Ted

[Bill V.]

for Bill V. Bill you had said that you do not use any line where the horse is beaten by more than 7.50 lengths. My question for you is this. Lets say you have a 6fur sprint. the horses last 3 lines are all at 6f. but in his last 3 races he finished 2nd beaten by 9 next race fin 3rd beaten by 10 lengths and third race back fin 4th beaten 9 lenghts. What do you do in that case?

Hi Bob i'll try to answer
lets say I saw this. I would think, Why is this horse finishing in the money but so far back ? Is is dropping from racing against better
Were the speed ratings in the races high compared to the
contenders in this race? I would look at the race ratings for the races too This type of horse is usually high in APV and CR
if so I would look at line 4 or 5 and use one of them if it was okay
BL wise. Another thing I could look at is the early late graph.
To finish in the money but far back 3 races in a row, maybe its too early or late for the track its been running at. Is todays EL fit better ?
I would look at these things. Most likely I would not put in a line for this horse if it had poor apv class ratings or total energy
Thats the way it is with Validator
But as I said Its probably much better to use the Spec mode
Bill