I Am So Frustrated.Can You Guide Me???

[Tim Y]

Having tunnel vision to the last line is NOT a practical way to function and is the domain of the unimaginative. Find a line that is competitive, then search the rest of the HISTORY THAT IS PROVIDED TO YOU (it is given to you for a logical reason as it tells the tale of the horse in performance chapters) to find similar lines.

It is important to see if there is a down turn or up turn in the form cycle by looking at SEVERAL lines coming into today's race. ONE bad race between the last good line is not enough to disqualify it, but TWO begins to make that a strong possibility.

[Jonathan Steele]

"ADW = Advance Deposit Wagering = i.e., betting through an online account "

Thanks David.

Jon

[Cincyhorseplayer]

Originally Posted by tom

Cincy...the HSH pars are very good. In spite of the attack on pars here, TM uses pars to get their variants and track to track adjustments, so denying them while using them is kind of nuts. So you using them if not using a program that adjusts is very valid. I used them for a long time with good results.

I guess you are using velocity ratings, ala Pace Makes the Race?

Modifying pace lines before you do velocity ratings works very well if you keep profiles and models ( another Doc tool!).

Tom I like that you are picking my brain back.

What I'm contemplating is using the DRF variant and the 10,000 par to gauge ability,nothing more.But without it one is handicapped.

I tell you between the Beyer numbers,DRF variants,Quirin Numbers,and numerous other numbers out there.Trying to quantify things into a believable truth is a task that is more likely to make your head explode before resolve sets in.But there has to be an answer and if it's not out there I want to be a part of finding it.It exists.I have had success with the races.I just want to isolate the winning mentality with every factor.I am totally intrigued by what the energy distribution numbers bear out with the synthetic tracks.I've been wondering why California horseplayers have been so quiet since that advent.

The good thing is I read tracks well and I can walk into a site,pick up a form and "Lock in" after a few races.But I would really like to have a better grip on the races reality.I'm reading Jim Quinn's Handicapper's Stakes Festival and he has great points in keeping up with the stakes population.What I want to know is how to go from A to B.How to quantify performances with the Quirin figs.I have barely a clue.I thought I'd put it out there because that gap seems tremendous.What is the state of the methodology???

[Charlie D]

Charles

What i posted is not a rule, it is a guideline from the Paceline Manual


I used it to show that class shifts are not irrelevant material in the Sartin methodology, just like your statement "comparable class" shows class shifts are not irrelevant material





Hope that helps

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Charles

What i posted is not a rule, it is a guideline from the Paceline Manual


I used it to show that class shifts are not irrelevant material in the Sartin methodology, just like your statement "comparable class" shows class shifts are not irrelevant material





Hope that helps

Every little bit helps Charlie.

I see each race as being different in terms of the way they must be approached. For example, class shifts. I try to not use maiden pace lines for races with multiple winners.

I also tend to toss out entrants with severe class drops within the claiming ranks, but not before I analyze their potential in today's race. If they look to be unbeatable, I can always pass the race entirely.

I like to think that the method gives me a bunch of tools to use, and sometimes one needs a hammer and chisel and other times a blowtorch will do. A master mechanic (and I don't claim to be one yet in this analogy) knows there is a time and reason for each tool in his tool kit to be used.

And he must be mindful that there may be new tools in the future to consider adding to the collection.

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by clore1030

Every little bit helps Charlie.

I see each race as being different in terms of the way they must be approached. For example, class shifts. I try to not use maiden pace lines for races with multiple winners.

I also tend to toss out entrants with severe class drops within the claiming ranks, but not before I analyze their potential in today's race. If they look to be unbeatable, I can always pass the race entirely.

I like to think that the method gives me a bunch of tools to use, and sometimes one needs a hammer and chisel and other times a blowtorch will do. A master mechanic (and I don't claim to be one yet in this analogy) knows there is a time and reason for each tool in his tool kit to be used.

And he must be mindful that there may be new tools in the future to consider adding to the collection.

Totally agree Charles


Good post

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Totally agree Charles


Good post

Thanks Charlie, much appreciated.
I'm going through one of my frequent bouts of insomnia, I'm surprised that I made any sense.

Don't know what I'm going to do with the Big A closed until December 26. Maybe I'll try Calder if I'm awake later.

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by clore1030

Thanks Charlie, much appreciated.
I'm going through one of my frequent bouts of insomnia, I'm surprised that I made any sense.

Don't know what I'm going to do with the Big A closed until December 26. Maybe I'll try Calder if I'm awake later.

I was at Calder this weekend. Saw Nick Zito on Saturday.

My friend is an owner and is at the track almost daily. He knows the ins and outs of Calder.

I'll give you a tip about Calder. Don't play multi-race wagers. They play games there. It's bad enough to lose one questionable race; no sense parlaying it.

And there's no sense going back over a losing race looking for another paceline...if you catch my drift.

[Cincyhorseplayer]

I guess I should have been a little more specific(and perhaps this isn't the thread for this).

Does the Sartin methodology still use the DRF variant?

If I'm wanting to make my own Quirin-Style pace figs is there a way to put them into Excel with the DRF variants and produce them???Or is there a program already existing that does this???

In addition,as I said I have the basic algorithms programmed into Excel and that's what I use to produce the ratings now.But that is after I have hand adjusted the numbers with the DRF variant.Is there a program that does the ratings that you just type in raw numbers with the variants that spits out the ratings???

And if so,does that same program take into account the track to track adjustments,in addition to the DRF variant????

I think I can adjust my pars to the current reality when I get info info from my own style of track profiles.But especially at the beginning of meets it's very tenuous comparing the basic skills of horses coming from so many different tracks.

There is so much to interpret once you have the data anyway that it's almost as if there is no time to think once the work has been put in.That's the big issue I'm having right now.I don't know how to write complex Macros on Excel and I know nothing of older or current computer programs for the Sartin Methodology.Especially to the needs I'm trying to get to,and hopefully without breaking the pocket book!!

Thanks so much for your suggestions thus far.I still have yet to research some of them but I difinitely will in the near future.

Rod

[Charlie D]

Cincy

The Modern Sartin Methodology use Trackmaster data