Help with race last weekend - Pace and Cap

patecatl · 03-12-2013, 06:25 PM

Im new to Sartin Methodology and have been reading as much as I can. I used to just use speed numbers and trip handicap. Now I am trying to learn to use pace numbers. After looking at one perticular race last weekend at Oaklawn, I cant help but be stumped.

I dont know if its just your standard "horse had a bad day" just like humans do or if there is something else I am not looking at, or am I missing something. According to what I had, it was between 5 and 2or3. I did 5 to win and 5w3 exa. Somehow 4 came in, with its numbers I am stuck wondering if there is something I missed. Any help would be appreciate.

BTW I didnt get this card on RDSS2, I just downloaded it and doing the evaluation. I handicapped this race with my calculator.

patecatl · 03-12-2013, 06:26 PM

This was the results

Bill V. · 03-12-2013, 08:01 PM

Wish I could help you but Its too late to download
OP from Friday, and I not very familiar with the PP's in any
other format than RDSS or Val 4

What I can see is it ran a (+) race first off the layoff. Can I excuse the
last line ? again I am the wrong guy to ask since the PP's are hard to read
I see it comes out of the same race as the 3
who was the favorite but the 3 also ran only a (+)
anyway I hope others can help you
I wish more folks would post missed races so we can work them

Bill

patecatl · 03-12-2013, 08:44 PM

Dont know if this helps you any but I had the rankings like this

ESP EP SP AP %E

1.Parrain E 8 8 8 8
2. Chuck E/P 3 2 2 3
3.Midas E/P 5 5 5 6
4.Strato E 6 7 7 7
5.Caribbean E/P 1 1 1 4
6.DonChange P 4 3 4 2
7.Limonte E 2 4 3 5
8.TransFlash E 7 6 6 1

*UPDATE*
Also looking at Strato's PP, I didnt see anywhere in the past where he pulled off what he did in the race. At the 1/2 call he was 7th(5 1/2back) to 1st and Win by almost 4

I just rewatched the race a couple times, looks like 4 Stratocruiser had alot better turn than the 5, but I am still confused where 4 got all that speed.

lone speed · 03-12-2013, 09:52 PM

I clearly want to state that this is my HUMBLE OPINION.....

First off....I probably wouldn't have touch this race with a ten feet pole...

But to try to understand some aspects of how we "could have" got the winner....let's point out some things that we do know...

The #4 horse

Name: Snap 2013-03-12 at 19.21.07.jpg
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Name: Snap 2013-03-12 at 19.21.07.jpg
Views: 513
Size: 81.4 KB

All of these horses are newly turned 3 year old colts...so some of these are still developing...some are natural routers...some are just sprinters where they can't stretch their speed a route of ground...

Some of these contenders ran hard races as a two year old without proper foundations. They got hurt by those hard races.. They just are not going to develop further in terms of improving whatever figures they earned as a two year old....

This philosophy is from Thorograph...

A newer turned 3 year old colt should improve or match his top figures ran as a two year old in his first couple of races back as a newly turned 3 year old colt or this colt is considered to have stopped developing....

Now back to the race in hand.....

First off...using Bradshaw's Matchup .....we noticed that this race is loaded with early speed...or positional front runners who want the early lead....now assuming that we determined that this race will be run OTE...or Other Than Early....let's focus only at the first two calls of each contenders only....Bradshaw stressed that we must ignore what happens to the final time after the 2nd call....

I can see how you landed on #5 for best positional early......

But we are looking for other than early.....

Looking at the #4, we see that the trainer is trying to harness his horse to run from behind versus how his horse ran route races as a two- year colt....

I don't see the rest of the past performances to determine who or who else runs from behind to make any matchups....

But just focusing on the contender that won the race....we see that he ran from 7 lengths back at the first call in his last paceline....He will be considered as a contender because he is other than early...Also, in his second paceline, he ran from 5 lengths back at the first call and made a strong move to the second call only to fall short...which is expected after the two month layoff...

Remember...that a horse that wins a race by default due to a speed duel is inferior on speed performance figures...He may not have the best speed figures...but he can win the race by default due to the early speed front runners dueling on a hot pace in the early pace of the race..

Again, I would not have touch this race because I have no route pacelines to compare using my tools...I am not going to project a horse's 5 furlong line into a mile or today's distance of a mile and 1/16th...

Hope this helps....

Good skills

patecatl · 03-12-2013, 10:09 PM

Your post makes perfect sense. I guess the key thing is that I can see now how 4 won but its hard to predict. Im still learning and I guess I focused TOO MUCH on pace numbers rather than looking at the race as a whole and how it would unfold. Thanks for the help

Lord John · 03-25-2013, 06:26 PM

Pate,
Ask ten different guys and you'll probably get ten variations of an answer. I most likely would have passed this race. Why? Too many unknowns. With the pp's listed in your post there were three stretch outs and two route horses and even the ML didn't look all that great--why? Because his last + race came two back at CD. That's a one turn mile--big difference going from a one turn route to two. Also the 6 was a dominate stretch out right? Wrong. If this was a Conditioned claiming race I'd say run to the cash window not walk. If you look back at this same horse's pp's you see his 'other' good race + is in a conditioned claimer--looks like he's more a conditioned claimer than a N1X horse. The +, (+) 0 exercise really helps me out for getting contenders but admit tingly even that method would NOT have given me the winner here. With too many unknown variables I'll pass. Good luck and keep at it.
Lord John

Hoof 11 · 04-03-2013, 05:58 PM

Patecatl

Here is a good start off point when using RDSS.

1 - Pay close attention to the Adjusted Speed Ratings, this gives you a good indication on what the horse has peaked at, what the horse has bottomed out at, and what the horse has been doing recently. A good indication of form.

2 - The Total Energy ratings are a good indication on what the horse is capable of against the other runners in the field. Use the Total Energy ratings in conjunction with the Adjusted Speed Ratings, you should have a good indication on the horses ability and recent form with these two ratings.

3 - Pay attention to the Composite Speed Ratings, in my evaluations, 2 out of the 3 CSR horses finish in the money over 90% of the time.

4 - Pay attention to the Class ratings and APV ratings, especially in claiming races and maiden races.

03-12-2013, 06:25 PM	#1
patecatl AlwNW2X Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 29	Help with race last weekend Im new to Sartin Methodology and have been reading as much as I can. I used to just use speed numbers and trip handicap. Now I am trying to learn to use pace numbers. After looking at one perticular race last weekend at Oaklawn, I cant help but be stumped. I dont know if its just your standard "horse had a bad day" just like humans do or if there is something else I am not looking at, or am I missing something. According to what I had, it was between 5 and 2or3. I did 5 to win and 5w3 exa. Somehow 4 came in, with its numbers I am stuck wondering if there is something I missed. Any help would be appreciate. BTW I didnt get this card on RDSS2, I just downloaded it and doing the evaluation. I handicapped this race with my calculator. Attached Images

03-12-2013, 06:26 PM	#2
patecatl AlwNW2X Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 29	This was the results Attached Images

03-12-2013, 08:01 PM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	hard Wish I could help you but Its too late to download OP from Friday, and I not very familiar with the PP's in any other format than RDSS or Val 4 What I can see is it ran a (+) race first off the layoff. Can I excuse the last line ? again I am the wrong guy to ask since the PP's are hard to read I see it comes out of the same race as the 3 who was the favorite but the 3 also ran only a (+) anyway I hope others can help you I wish more folks would post missed races so we can work them Bill

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03-12-2013, 08:44 PM	#4
patecatl AlwNW2X Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 29	Dont know if this helps you any but I had the rankings like this ESP EP SP AP %E 1.Parrain E 8 8 8 8 2. Chuck E/P 3 2 2 3 3.Midas E/P 5 5 5 6 4.Strato E 6 7 7 7 5.Caribbean E/P 1 1 1 4 6.DonChange P 4 3 4 2 7.Limonte E 2 4 3 5 8.TransFlash E 7 6 6 1 UPDATE Also looking at Strato's PP, I didnt see anywhere in the past where he pulled off what he did in the race. At the 1/2 call he was 7th(5 1/2back) to 1st and Win by almost 4 I just rewatched the race a couple times, looks like 4 Stratocruiser had alot better turn than the 5, but I am still confused where 4 got all that speed. Last edited by patecatl; 03-12-2013 at 08:58 PM.

03-12-2013, 09:52 PM	#5
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	I clearly want to state that this is my HUMBLE OPINION..... First off....I probably wouldn't have touch this race with a ten feet pole... But to try to understand some aspects of how we "could have" got the winner....let's point out some things that we do know... The #4 horse All of these horses are newly turned 3 year old colts...so some of these are still developing...some are natural routers...some are just sprinters where they can't stretch their speed a route of ground... Some of these contenders ran hard races as a two year old without proper foundations. They got hurt by those hard races.. They just are not going to develop further in terms of improving whatever figures they earned as a two year old.... This philosophy is from Thorograph... A newer turned 3 year old colt should improve or match his top figures ran as a two year old in his first couple of races back as a newly turned 3 year old colt or this colt is considered to have stopped developing.... Now back to the race in hand..... First off...using Bradshaw's Matchup .....we noticed that this race is loaded with early speed...or positional front runners who want the early lead....now assuming that we determined that this race will be run OTE...or Other Than Early....let's focus only at the first two calls of each contenders only....Bradshaw stressed that we must ignore what happens to the final time after the 2nd call.... I can see how you landed on #5 for best positional early...... But we are looking for other than early..... Looking at the #4, we see that the trainer is trying to harness his horse to run from behind versus how his horse ran route races as a two- year colt.... I don't see the rest of the past performances to determine who or who else runs from behind to make any matchups.... But just focusing on the contender that won the race....we see that he ran from 7 lengths back at the first call in his last paceline....He will be considered as a contender because he is other than early...Also, in his second paceline, he ran from 5 lengths back at the first call and made a strong move to the second call only to fall short...which is expected after the two month layoff... Remember...that a horse that wins a race by default due to a speed duel is inferior on speed performance figures...He may not have the best speed figures...but he can win the race by default due to the early speed front runners dueling on a hot pace in the early pace of the race.. Again, I would not have touch this race because I have no route pacelines to compare using my tools...I am not going to project a horse's 5 furlong line into a mile or today's distance of a mile and 1/16th... Hope this helps.... Good skills Last edited by lone speed; 03-12-2013 at 10:03 PM. Reason: grammer

03-12-2013, 10:09 PM	#6
patecatl AlwNW2X Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 29	Your post makes perfect sense. I guess the key thing is that I can see now how 4 won but its hard to predict. Im still learning and I guess I focused TOO MUCH on pace numbers rather than looking at the race as a whole and how it would unfold. Thanks for the help

03-25-2013, 06:26 PM	#7
Lord John AlwNW1X Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: Inland Empire. Lived here since '74. Never knew about Pirco. Shame! Posts: 17	Pate, Ask ten different guys and you'll probably get ten variations of an answer. I most likely would have passed this race. Why? Too many unknowns. With the pp's listed in your post there were three stretch outs and two route horses and even the ML didn't look all that great--why? Because his last + race came two back at CD. That's a one turn mile--big difference going from a one turn route to two. Also the 6 was a dominate stretch out right? Wrong. If this was a Conditioned claiming race I'd say run to the cash window not walk. If you look back at this same horse's pp's you see his 'other' good race + is in a conditioned claimer--looks like he's more a conditioned claimer than a N1X horse. The +, (+) 0 exercise really helps me out for getting contenders but admit tingly even that method would NOT have given me the winner here. With too many unknown variables I'll pass. Good luck and keep at it. Lord John

04-03-2013, 05:58 PM	#8
Hoof 11 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Woodbine Posts: 761	Patecatl Here is a good start off point when using RDSS. 1 - Pay close attention to the Adjusted Speed Ratings, this gives you a good indication on what the horse has peaked at, what the horse has bottomed out at, and what the horse has been doing recently. A good indication of form. 2 - The Total Energy ratings are a good indication on what the horse is capable of against the other runners in the field. Use the Total Energy ratings in conjunction with the Adjusted Speed Ratings, you should have a good indication on the horses ability and recent form with these two ratings. 3 - Pay attention to the Composite Speed Ratings, in my evaluations, 2 out of the 3 CSR horses finish in the money over 90% of the time. 4 - Pay attention to the Class ratings and APV ratings, especially in claiming races and maiden races.