NWearner

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by MIKE

Abra kadabra--------black magic !!!!!!

Ok..thxs...I'm going to look for a VooDoo Woman now!!

[NWearner]

Originally Posted by JimG

Fantastic handicapping! Do you post over at the Wizard's forum. If so, what is your handle there? Again, tremendous job.

Jim

Jim,

It's me, Mike Canonica, aka mikeyc, aka kingfin66, aka SBA.

Thanks for the props!

Mike

[JimG]

Originally Posted by NWearner

Jim,

It's me, Mike Canonica, aka mikeyc, aka kingfin66, aka SBA.

Thanks for the props!

Mike

So many "handles", so little time.

Congrats again.

Jim

[NWearner]

Okay, since a couple of you asked, I will try to go through how I came up with the bet, complete with a couple of screenshots assuming that I can figure out to post them on this forum.

First of all, I use Black Magic as do a few other who post here. Unlike most others, I use it in positional setting, which means that I use it more like Handicapping Magic, but with the bells and whistles of BLAM of which there are many. My unique spin comes in how I evaluate the PBS and PPF numbers from track to track. Fortunately, this race was very clean as far as the numbers go.

Here is my screenshot of the race. This is the BLAM handicapping window. The winner's past performance is on the bottom. I scrolled down to the running line I used. Yes, the line is from WAY BACK - Keeneland, April 2008.

I always make a few notes about why I like a horse. In this case the horse has a 3 point GAP in PPF to the next horse, has a T3 form (FRM) pattern, fits the track profile (PRF) and pace (PCE) of the race. So basically, this horse fit my requirements for ability relative to the field, form, running style for the race, and can confirm to the track profile. I did remove a running line from Dmr because it was not yet reflecting the new variants. Those running lines are excessively high, so I do not use them.

Moving on to the exotics, which is what I was actually asked about. One of the awesome bells and whistles of BLAM is the Exotic Patterns tab. This screen identifies horses that fit exotic running styles. When I brought up the screen, I saw the #6 listed as a Counter Early (closer). Also, this matched the 6 having a listed running style of S, was listed as a closer on the AccuPressure screen, and went from 41 to 22 on the Postition Pointer. All of this pointed to the 6 being a CLOSER. In a Heavy Pressure/Highly Pressured race like this. It made a lot of sense to prefer it in the place spot, more so than some of the cheap speed. Since I was keying the 4 on top, I was able to use four horses in the place spot. Putting the best true closer in that spot made a lot of sense.

I was able to spread out a lot in the show spot. This basically became a process of elimination, and I only had to eliminate two horses - the 2 and the 10. This actually made me nervous eliminating these two horses because they both had form patterns and the 2 had a reversal.

That's pretty much it. BLAM made it very fast for me to put this together. In fact, it has taken me about twenty times as long to put into words than it did to actually look at the race, and I'm a really fast typist/keyboarder/whatever.

I hope I can get these screenshots to work. Mostly, I hope this info helps.

Best,
Mike

[MIKE]

Great job Mike !!!

[JimG]

Nice presentation Mike. I am a little curious at why you kept the 13 in your exotic mix and instead tossed out the two horses you did?

Now I have got to play supers for a shot at this contest. Thanks alot Mike.

Goes to show you two guys using a quality program with many features can approach the race very differently. Of course the same is true with RDSS as well.

Jim

[SilentRun]

Thanks for the analysis...Ernie

[NWearner]

Originally Posted by JimG

Nice presentation Mike. I am a little curious at why you kept the 13 in your exotic mix and instead tossed out the two horses you did?

Now I have got to play supers for a shot at this contest. Thanks alot Mike.

Goes to show you two guys using a quality program with many features can approach the race very differently. Of course the same is true with RDSS as well.

Jim

I guess the question of which to keep and which to toss comes down to art (luck?) more than science. BLAM stuck 10 with its last race which I believe was a great call given that the horse was an 0-26 maiden, broke its maiden in very weak fashion against a poor field, then ran poorly (much more poorly than its finish indicates) in n2l company. Its 75 PBS was the poorest in the field and its PPF was among the worst.

The 2 made me much more nervous, but it still didn't have numbers or exotic patterns going for it. The 13 missed by 3/4 lengths at the same level, is usually near the pace and has better numbers than the 2 and 10. If I had only had $20 to spend on exotics it would have been the next to go.

I'm not counting any money or victories just yet. I recall the contest here last year where the players here made some incredible calls. With a big enough field in a race, and the excellent 'cappers here, who knows what may happen.

I'm off to shower up from my just completed run - staying in shape @ 44 years old is H-E-L-L - and then watch some races. There is a very intriguing downhill turf race at Santa Anita today. My mortgage guy's father owns Reba Is Tops, a former EmD horse, and my sentimental favorite in the race. My money, however, is going toward the #11. It is a Pletcher shipper with a huge PBS earned in an AP about distance. This adjustment greatly favors the SoCal horses, yet Pletcher's horse has the big number, tactical speed, a nice T3 form pattern...

Good luck and have a great day!

[NWearner]

January 9, 2010 results:

Straight

Race 3 - $20 WIN #2, won @ $6.00, returned $60.00

Race 9 - $0.00

Exotics

Nada

Totals for day:

Straight - $60.00
Exotics - $0.00

Totals for contest:

Straight - $500.00

Exotics - $3138.10

[NWearner]

January 16, 2010 results:

Straight

Nothing

Exotics

Nothing

Totals for day:

Straight - $0.00
Exotics - $0.00

Totals for contest:

Straight - $500.00

Exotics - $3138.10