Question

[Ted Craven]

Dave,

These are observant and excellent questions, which go to the heart of the system Doc invented for 'Equalized/Normalized/Adjusted' (or - 'comparing apples to apples', to use another metaphor).

Here are a few core concepts to always remember:

1. After the raw data is finished being adjusted, today's race is NOT being run at today's track: it is being run at a mythical Sartin Downs. Read that again, please.

2. All pacelines are adjusted as follows:
a) Equalized to today's distance, by applying a 'Par Gap' differential between a base time for each distance/surface and the raw final time,
b) Normalized by an InterTrack Variant (ITV) supplied by TrackMaster which serves to adjust final time from different tracks/distances/surfaces to today's circumstances,
c) Adjusted by a Daily Track Variant (DTV) which serves to adjust final time by how fast or slow that day's average surface times were compared to a par for that surface.

So, there are 3 adjustments which happen to change Raw final time to Adjusted final time. The most obvious is converting the 6f final time to 5.5f, the less obvious adjustments are the ITV and DTV. Remember, we're not adjusting to MNR 5.5f dirt, we're adjusting to our our hypothetical Sartin Downs 5.5f dirt - and all horses' pacelines have their own respective ITV adjustments, so we are comparing all lines on an equal footing. The visual disconnect comes if you think the Adjusted times are for today's track: they're not, even if the track/distance/surface is the same as today's.

Even if the winner of Gaelic Terms' last race were running again today, it too would get the same adjustments to the POR times, so the issue does not have to do with Gaelic Terms, but with the adjustment process.

Does the adjustment process have any flaws? Yes, sometimes (if no ITV is available for new tracks or surfaces, e.g. PID, DMR, SA, AP poly - and this requires another article), or if the DTV is extreme, for example due to high class weekend races and fast times, or mid-week low class races and slow times - but we seek to avoid the worst of the excesses by using only HALF the DTV. Plus, our ITV extraction formula inherited from Validator and Speculator needs and will soon get an overhaul using precise ITVs now supplied to RDSS by TrackMaster. Etc, etc. So, when encountering a new surface (like PID, or DMR, or SA, or AP poly) tread with caution during early meet stages.

But aside from those musings, the adjustment process often works surprisingly well. How is it working out for you - aside from appearing to not make sense on the surface sometimes?

Hope that helped, somewhat. I've omitted some details which are getting close to what I want to keep proprietary, and as I said, I need to write another article (in the next few days) about what I've come to understand about TrackMaster's general process for generating pars, and ITVs and DTVs and Class Ratings and Speed Ratings during the early stages of new racing surfaces (and what of all that we make use of and what we ignore).

Ted