Kee Poly Winning positions

[admin]

Records = getting a good feel for each race

[RichieP]

Nice work Mike.

This track/surface is unique. Dick (Socantra) has discovered truly remarkable patterns from the result charts. I agree when he says that part of the radical change there has to do with a track reconfig.

I HOPE that the new poly's about to open (Ap,Sa,Dmr) have Keeneland's patterns to them also.

A new era is upon us. We adapt,change and prosper or get run the hell over by those that DO.

I honestly believe we are in the first camp

Great work Mike

[Houndog]

This sort of research is much easier to do since the Bris PDF charts give you the option of showing the Charts in the Alternative way which shows the winner the way you would see the race in the Racing Form or other PP's.

This makes it especially less time consuming when you have a horse that is sitting 11th in the first parts of the race and having to add the lengths from the horses ahead of him as in the traditional way.

Here is what it looks like. I use the Alternative method which when selected is highlighted. This is a real time saver and less prone to error than doing it the old way.

[socantra]

Thanks. That does make things easier. I've been working with DRF charts, my calculator and columnar pad, so work goes slowly.

The pattern Richie mentioned that I noticed on Blue Grass Stakes day was that their essentially was no deceleration. In the Blue Grass, and pretty much the other routes at Keeneland that day, the Pace of the Race was pretty much accelerating throughout the race.

I looked up the Cynthia pars for pre poly Keeneland and the dirt routes ran a pretty traditional pattern of deceleration for route races. Then I looked t turf routes nd the pars had them pretty much flat across the fractions. But the ploy showed acceleration.

Example:
9f pre-poly fractional dirt par in fps:
54.77, 51.56, 50.51

9f turf par:
55.23, 55.00, 55.00

Blue Grass fractional POR:
51.36, 52.38, 57.23

In other words, the Blue Grass and other routes were almost a complete flip of the old dirt fractions and a very different pattern from the turf races. I don't know what this means, how far it extends or if it applies to other tracks yet. It does seem that we are dealing with a completely different beastie here.

Dick

[Houndog]

Dick, those dirt routes for Keeneland are bordering on the extreme for that third fraction. It is as you say does not even resemble Turf Routes at Keeneland. I am not sure what it means or how I can use some of these lines when some of these horses move to Churchill.

I haven't looked at the routes yet so that is my next step. I will not be surprised if I see a sub 66% Med Energy for some of these races. Thanks for pointing this out.

[socantra]

i'll be anxious to see what you find. The Blue Grass and the Jenny wiley both ran that way. Some of the others are flatter, like the turf pars. It surprised the hell out of me. I've never seen races that run like that. My pocket calculator got extra exercise, because I thought I must have blown the calculations, so I repeated them several times and still think that maybe I got it wrong.

If you break it down into 2f segments, the POR starts off slow, dips a little after the 1st segment and then accelerates from there, with little or no deceleration in the final fraction. Keeneland appears to have a considerable dip in the 2nd call times from pre-poly. Hollywood looks like it has a bit and Turfway Park a very small dip. Woodnime doesn't look like there's been any change at all. I haven't gotten a look at any current final time pars yet, though Keeneland doesn't seem to be any slower.

Dick

[sweetyjohn]

words of caution about Keeneland is that Turfway Park past performances, when compared to the other tracks, compare as being too fast. very few Tp lines get the winners

[Houndog]

Keeneland 1 1/16 miles on the dirt.

[Houndog]

Keeneland 1 1/8 Miles on the dirt.

[Houndog]

Look at some of those 3rd fraction times, especially at a 1 1/16. Also 6 races with MED% below 65%. Blugrass Stakes 63.84%.