Saratoga Models

[57viking]

Attached are my latest models for Saratoga. They use Ted's base model format with a few changes.

Notes -

The models include all 2025 and 2026 race dates. They exclude maiden races. Each race type is capped at the last 50 races. The turf models separate the inner (t) and outer (T) tracks.

They are based on my paceline selections which is pretty standard with a few changes:

My settings are to use 100% of the DTV from -20 to +20. I exclude lines with DTV's outside of this range. There are quite a few from Aqueduct that fall outside of this range.

I take the best preceptor out of the last 3 with same surface and within 1f of current race distance. I will go back to as many lines as there are to get the 3.

I will include 8f lines from the tracks that run 8f at one turn for the 7f races ( Aqu, CD, GP)

The primary factor rankings are "unfiltered" . Meaning they do not take into account contender selections.


I use the models as general trends. The Saratoga dirt track bias depends a lot on how it is prepared for a race. The natural track is speed favoring. Depending on how much water they put on the track before they harrow it for a race , it can be made neutral to favoring closers.

Belmont Day was a good example. The track was very much favoring speed and early horses dominated the card. Just before the Belmont , they watered the hell out of the track. Golden Tempo won from the back.

I like to look at how the jockeys who were towards the back look after a race.

The turf tracks depend on how much rain they get. Up to this week it has been very dry and they have been generally speed favoring. Saratoga got a fair amount of rain over the last few days , so we will see if that changes.

Jim

[57viking]

The Model Files.

[DELMARGRANT]

Thank you I this is a huge help as I don't model as of yet Grant

[Bill Lyster]

Jim:

Great work on the models. Looking forward to reviewing all the great data that you provided.

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

Jim:

Three quick questions on followup:

1. What are your settings;
2. Are the pacelines chosen yours or best of last three perceptor, or other
3. At the top of the Primary factor columns labeled < or = what is meant by +/- 3.5, 2.0 and 1, (what are you recording) and in Primary factors
Many thanks,

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

for some reason the last part of my post was missing.

...

[Bill Lyster]

and in Primary factors

[Jake]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Jim:

Three quick questions on followup:

1. What are your settings;
2. Are the pacelines chosen yours or best of last three perceptor, or other
3. At the top of the Primary factor columns labeled < or = what is meant by +/- 3.5, 2.0 and 1, (what are you recording) and in Primary factors
Many thanks,

Bill

Equally curious, too? Thanks for posting this.

Jake

[57viking]

My settings are 100% of the DTV from -20 to +20. I use the preceptor selected line about 80% of the time. The first post explains my paceline selection process.


The 3.5, 2.0 , 1 are just ranges of values from the specific field being modeled. In the case of primary factors, these are values that are in the primary tab in the program or in the columns AS-AZ of the model file.

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks for the info: