Dec 14 LRL 5 defines both a Werpy Long Shot and a RMath Longshot

[kahunab]

Good Morning, I have been asked several times in private messages, “What constitutes a Werpy Long Shot?” I thought maybe the best way to answer was to post an explanation for everyone.
Then I saw LT1’s Laurel race that he posted which I think has very clear examples of both the RMath Long Shot and the Werpy Long Shot. So, I hope you don’t mind Tim, but I borrowed from your post.

As we look at the RX screen, (we can see the same info on the Leverage Pace screen), note the two arrows. The green arrow is pointing to the 7 horse, he is the RMath LS by virtue of his good VDC and CSR scores with some good supporting ancillary scores. He is rated as a non-contender. Basically the way I read his scores are he has good deceleration and speed but his lack of PL and BPP speak to his lack of class in this field. But as I heard Jim Bradshaw say in a presentation once, “Heck, the dang horse doesn’t know anything about class, he just runs.” That kind of describes this long shot. His red number 7 does indicate he has some APV but not looking at him individually, I am not sure. But to me he is a clear RMath Longshot to be seriously considered.
The red arrow points to the Werpy Long Shot. Note on this screen he has none of the important contender rankings. He has some ancillary scores but nothing remarkable. He is the number two late pace rated horse. Where we really see his Long Shot potential is on the next screen, The Segments screen.

Here is where we really spot the Werpy Long Shot. As the red arrow points out the 2 horse is a non-contender who gains in position each part of the matchup, has good vdc in this field, and shows up really well in the TS+F3 part of the horse graphic matchup.
Note also the RMath Longshot, the 7. He looks strong as an Early horse. Good position at each call, good vdc in this field. He too is deserving of a play. His question mark to me is that he is Early and there appears to be several other horses to put pressure on him after a significant layoff.
So how did it run? There was early pressure and as the comment says the RMLS, 7, took the lead, was rushed and tired after his long layoff. The WLS, 2, came from behind gained ground and took 2nd by a nose. Both ran as RDSS predicted they would.

[Lt1]

Nice job of explaining your LSP Dick. Now that the folks have both written and visual info to review they may find these gems more often. Glad my screen shots helped with your visual explanation. Just a reminder that both LSP plays must be a NON=CONTENDER.
Tim

[dadams6357]

Thanks for the explanation Dick
Clears up any questions in regards to
your method,
Greatly appreciated.
Don'

[kahunab]

Thanks Tim and Don!

I just hope sharing like this helps others.

Dick

Happy Holidays to all my Fellow RDSS Handicappers!

[shoeless]

Hi

I wanted to know why you would key the 2 when you have it listed
as a non-contender.

Jeff

[DELMARGRANT]

Thanks Dick, I'm still confused about it but I am getting closer to understanding.

[kahunab]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Hi

I wanted to know why you would key the 2 when you have it listed
as a non-contender.

Jeff

Jeff.
I would not use the 2 as a Key but I almost always use him as a Companion with my Key. Or if I am not really playing the race I might use him in a small exacta bet just for some action.

Hope that helps,

Dick

[shoeless]

Thanks, Dick, for clearing it up

Jeff

[stormbringer]

Dick,
Feels strange not saying SIR or MR. to you sorry I did not get back with you, my wife had to have hand surgery all is well! and thanks, you answer is great (I UNDERSTAND NOW) You are a great teacher. Storm

[kahunab]

Storm,

You are most welcome. Glad you could use my answer.

Dick