Woodbine 05/31 races

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Hey Bill what about an early that goes WTW or is less then a length off the lead at the 1st call and wins is it not an early horse?
Tim

Sure Tim, when I wrote that it was from my discussions with FTL and his point was that any horse who PPs showed it never gained or passed another horse was some kind of early. So it could be an F, an E a E/p or even a P as far as ESP goes, but we should expect it not to keep up with the pace of race if it was faster than what you predicted in todays race.

[Bill Lyster]

Race 3 a six horse field

Notice that all the horses came from much shorter distances than the 4 and that the pace of race was much slower which is almost always the case with marathons vs mid distance routes.


When in form or when its competitive the horse will run speed ratings somewhere in the mid to high 70s. Its had one other long layoff so if you thought it would repeat that you could use line 8. I used line 2 and if the horse is good enough it will be in the mix.

When I leave the 12 f line in you can see how far back the horse is and even as a presser it loses ground from SC to FIN.






But I want to see how it would perform at a distance closer to today.


My goal is to get down to 5 horses so we look at who fades the most. The 3 could wire the field, the 6 gained to SC and lost a little to finish; our 4 now gains to SC and loses a little to FIN; the 5 gains to SC and loses the most to FIN and the 1 a S horse gains consistently but probably not enough to win, but is only one of two horses that gains throughout the race.

None of the horses %med is out of whack. Most turf routes are won with a %Med in the very low 67 usually 66 or even a little less.



Guess what the two who gained throughout the race came 1st and 3rd, the old split-zacta. The winner was 3rd Rx3 and one of the new pace horses.

If you look at the POR section of the P/L screen you see that even though the speed rating was one of the higher ones for this horse its pace of race in most categories was a 5.