Screen Shots Parx R3 12-13

[Lt1]

Here are the BL/BL & RX screens for the race. The order of finish was 2[$18.80],6,3,5. Here were my selections for the day
R1 62534 LS1
R2 36827 LS9
R3 61243
R4 61472
R5 311746
R6 76321
R7 24715 LS3
R8 58674
R9 7624 LS3
R10 67341
R11 75839 LS6




Tim

[Ted Craven]

Tim,

Nice hit Tim! I am always interested in the extent RDSS gets the Contenders and main finishers in its odds lines using default settings including Paceline Selection Strategies. Of course, people can and do tweak line selection according to their own guidance.

Not too much more one can ask from an automated oddsline than the Win and Place horse in the Top 3 including the $18.80 Win and $91 Exacta. Out of the box with no Contender separation:



I can make the case for demoting the #4 (mainly Turf success at least for Win, so possibly a Secondary) along with the #7 and #3.

Favourite #5 is also not too hard to demote based on 90 day layoff. Despite good works to return, it's a good question why the layoff after the competitive return to racing in Sept.

Tim: any more reasoning you'd share about demoting the #5 from Win contention?



Thanks!

Ted

[Lt1]

Ted the 5 just didn't come up for me but I also noted it never raced at dist,and figured to be too far back at 2nd call and had a 4.2 % vdc difference [6TH ranked. I have noted that at most tracks a 3% difference is about as far you can have and still win. It also distributed its' energy too late for the dist and surface. The 90 day l/o didn't bother me that much since Pino wins at a 21% clip with such horses. Folks are to quick to toss l/o horses.
Tim

[darmar]

Great post Tim this race and Race 7 were the hi-lights of my day
Darryl

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Ted the 5 just didn't come up for me but I also noted it never raced at dist,and figured to be too far back at 2nd call and had a 4.2 % vdc difference [6TH ranked. I have noted that at most tracks a 3% difference is about as far you can have and still win. It also distributed its' energy too late for the dist and surface. The 90 day l/o didn't bother me that much since Pino wins at a 21% clip with such horses. Folks are to quick to toss l/o horses.
Tim

Tim, you and I don't use %M exactly the same way, but we often arrive at the same conclusion based on %M. In this race, I absolutely agree that a huge problem with the 5 is that he distributes his energy WAY too late. Good call.

This race led to me tweaking some of my analysis.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Ted the 5 just didn't come up for me but I also noted it never raced at dist,and figured to be too far back at 2nd call and had a 4.2 % vdc difference [6TH ranked. I have noted that at most tracks a 3% difference is about as far you can have and still win. It also distributed its' energy too late for the dist and surface. The 90 day l/o didn't bother me that much since Pino wins at a 21% clip with such horses. Folks are to quick to toss l/o horses.
Tim

Thanks Tim.

[Lt1]

Thanks guys. Ranch I lean on my models for the dominate factors that are winning at the dist and surface and then % med allows me to downgrade contenders on a regular basis
.Makes a big difference when structing bets.
Tim

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Thanks guys. Ranch I lean on my models for the dominate factors that are winning at the dist and surface and then % med allows me to downgrade contenders on a regular basis
.Makes a big difference when structing bets.
Tim

I know. I developed other ways to use %Med based on the fact that I don't want to record models. lol

[Lt1]

Ranch you most certainly can win without keeping models. I've been doing them for so long that it becomes second nature to me. The trick is not to model too many factors. The Keep It Simple Stupid approach works well. You don't need fancy spread sheets with too many factors to accomplish the mission.
Tim

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Ranch you most certainly can win without keeping models. I've been doing them for so long that it becomes second nature to me. The trick is not to model too many factors. The Keep It Simple Stupid approach works well. You don't need fancy spread sheets with too many factors to accomplish the mission.
Tim

The only factor that I emulate modeling is %Med. I do a lot of other calculations including some similar to RDSS, but I don't consider any of those being an emulation of modeling.