How Good Is Your Handicapping?

[Mitch44]

Great post Richard.

The old standard that I learned years ago was a player was considered to be an expert if they won 33% with one horse bets. At that time there were not as many gimmick bets such as EX. Tri etc., win betting was more in vogue in that era. In fact there was only one DD normally on the 1st & 2nd race. Additionally there was fewer favorites winning at that time which also made that objective much more difficult.

Your percentages are a very good goal for someone to achieve, particularity with the Sartin Mythology. And the finer points or tools will raise those percentages.

I have however gotten away from win percentages and realize that the main objective is to make a profit which is a much more challenging objective. One could win only one race a day and make money. Also I have found that money management is a huge part of success that probably 99% ignore.

Additionally we all go through slumps. A couple weeks ago in a contest I had 8 alternate picks win. I just could not believe it and my wife said that was impossible. Well it wasn't. Luckily I bet my top two choices for real money and made a profit that day.

Lately my horses are coming in second a lot with some real bad beats in photos. I'm smart enough to not change things and reduce my bets. Those that use the Kelly will also reduce their bets automatically. Other times I surprise myself and can do nothing wrong. Such is the game. Even in professional sports key players have slumps but end the season with very good stats etc.

A player should give as much thought to betting as they do their handicapping. They should find just what their good at and capitalize on that by avoiding poor situations. In a contest your forced to play every race but otherwise try to stay out of ugly races with too many legit contenders and races you just can't get a handle on. Horizonal bettors should think very seriously about leaving out a favorite.

Mitch44