Arkansas Derby Grade 1 1,000,000

[lone speed]

Thanks for posting your workup on this Derby prep race, Bill V

I don't understand the speed rating assigned to the Sunland Derby, but "it is what it is...."

I got drawn into this race because of the fast pace of the Sunland Derby and Irap came out of that particular race to wire the Blue Grass Stakes last week over the pre-Derby favorite McCraken....Maybe Irap paired up before the Blue Grass; nevertheless Irap got away with a 48.0 first fraction and wired the field at 31 to 1 last week....

Conquest Mo Money came in second in the Sunland Derby but more importantly, Conquest Mo Money was up close to the blistering pace which it will not see in today's match- up even though we have a sprinter stretching out today in the #1 horse trained by O'Neill. Conquest Mo Money can spring a mlld upset in today's Derby prep race in my humble two cents.

Good skills

[lostandwon]

Bill, thanks for posting the race.

From my own (such as it is) matchup perspective:

See the #1 as the rabbit. Going to set fast pace then stop. By default perhaps of being the E sprinter, also has FPLR of 21.8-43.9. Went backward last 2 starts @ 6.5f so take it with a grain of salt.

See the big tandem of the Rebel with 12, 7, 9, 4, 3
The 4 might have had traffic problems. The 7 while a maiden did show moves of 10-8 from 1c-2c and 8-4 2c-str. What a price in that race!

See E of 1 & 5(?)
1 will stop on own and 5 is slow

Looking for OTE

Don’t really have a projected POR but the big tandem went 23 – 47
12 won OTE from 2nd pos
7 placed from Mars
Even though the others might have had traffic issues I’m kicking the rest of the tandem out

2 won OTE from 2nd pos at a 23.1 & a 23.4 - 46.6

11 has won E and OTE and at fractions competitive to what the others have ran against.
2nd race back it fought with multiple horses at multiple calls.
It is the only horse to have ran the full 9f and did so at a 45.7 half mile compared to the field’s half mile of 46.6 – 47. Also, the 11 moved from 7 – 2 from 1c – 2c. It only placed in that race but I don’t think it’s going to face as hot of a pace today.

So, in my opinion, the 11 can pull something off here. He’s gotta beat the 12 and 2. The 7 has never won and certainly may not win against this crowd but he seems to have a nose for place and show.

Bet 11 Win Place

Lone Speed, I type in a word doc to cut and paste on the board. You posted your look between the time I started typing and logged on to post. I say this all in that even contrarians like me like some company. Ha! Just hope I'm not the kiss of death for the 11. But, really, looking at those TE and TPR numbers in the screenshots the 11 looks like he's in trouble. However, I'm trying to implement the matchup so just looking at raw numbers.

Good luck to all!

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by lone speed

Thanks for posting your workup on this Derby prep race, Bill V

I don't understand the speed rating assigned to the Sunland Derby, but "it is what it is...."

I got drawn into this race because of the fast pace of the Sunland Derby and Irap came out of that particular race to wire the Blue Grass Stakes last week over the pre-Derby favorite McCraken....Maybe Irap paired up before the Blue Grass; nevertheless Irap got away with a 48.0 first fraction and wired the field at 31 to 1 last week....

Good skills

Quote from the DRF
"The winning Beyer Speed Figure of the Sunland Derby, won by Hence, has been adjusted to 97 from its original 93, according to Andrew Beyer. Irap and Conquest Mo Money, second in the Arkansas Derby, both exited the Sunland Derby."