2014 Layoff & Paceline discussion

[Ryan.p.coli]

All-

I've seen a gentlemen with the handle "For The Lead" post several times about how he throws out horses who are on a layoff of 90 days or longer as they win less than 5% of the time.

At first I had some trouble with this concept, but after mining data on my own, I am able to wrap my head around it. Per my data, horses off over 90 days do in fact win at a very low amount of the time. In a previous layoff discussion, Richie correctly points out that there are 2 approaches (link: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=628 ).

1. Screw it- if he beats you, he beats you- Sartin Method handicappers only need to win 50% of races to make $. I can handle having that 5% of winners off a layoff being included in the 50% of races I lose.

2. Ignore layoff rules and play the include the horse as a contender anyways.

Over the past weekend at Saratoga and Del mar, there were a few big favorites that were coming off long layoffs. Keying against them was very profitable for me.

MY question:

Since we've established that a horse coming off a layoff often times needs a race to get back into shape, what do we do with a horse that is running a second race off a layoff? The first race off a layoff won't be indicative of how a horse will perform today. Specifically. I have no idea which line to use.

Any insight would be appreciated.

Thanks,
Ryan