PRX 9th 3.2.13

[For The Lead]

I haven't posted anything for a while, but I just couldn't help myself when this race occurred. First a reminder of just how I go about picking lines.

1 - the last line is the line UNLESS there is a GOOD reason to go back a line.
Now I understand that some of us my have reasons to go back a line that others do not have, but the Paceline Manual is a good place to start learning.

2 - what are some GOOD REASONS?
a - wrong distance
b - wrong surface
c - perhaps...off track?
d - perhaps, as I do, race is too old, in which case line selection ends right there. If the last line is too old, certainly the rest of the lines are too old as well.

Ok, so first you have to have a last line that is on the same or similar surface and at the same or similar distance. If that qualifies, then the horse must have run 1st, 2nd or 3rd...OR... been first or second at the first and/or second calls, even if it fades in the stretch...OR...must have made a good middle move (from first call to the second call) to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call even if it fades in the stretch.

Finally, I use no horse that has not run in the last 90 days and I use no line that is more than 90 days old.




Ok, I'm going to post and comment on each horse.

the #1 horse....let's start with, the horse is 2 for 37 lifetime. No matter what, do you really want to bet your money on a horse that just can't win? On top of that, there are 7 races in the PP's that are 554 days old or older. Obviously, this guys got some physical problems. Its' last line was a route race, which does not qualify, and the horse ran 8th all the way around. Not very encouraging, is it? Line 2 is 116 days old. This horse is OUT.


the #2 horse is another with physical problems. There are 7 races in the PP's that are 366 days or older and just one race that is less than 90 days old. Both of the horses last two races are routes, which means they don't qualify for a line. Line 3 would qualify if it wasn't 140 days old. This horse is OUT.


the #3 horse has a lifetime record of 2 for 25, which isn't real encouraging, however, it's last line was a route on an off track, so we can dismiss that race and go back a race. The line 2 back is just 41 days old, was run on today's track, on today's surface, at today's distance and the horse won the race. This horse will be the first contender off of line 2.

the #4 horse is another horse with a terrible lifetime record having won just 2 races from 37 starts. Like I asked about the #1 horse, do you really want to bet your hard earned money on a horse that doesn't want or know how to win? There is certainly not anything in its' last three races to encourage me to go back to line 4 and use that line. This horse is OUT.