Bill V goes the Extra Mile

[For The Lead]

This is a race that Bill V and I discussed from a few days ago. I'm sorry for having sat on it that long, but I did want to post it because it is a good illustration of what is involved in handicapping when you go that extra mile.

I used the last line for the winner, #1. It is a good "(+)" line. For those of you who have followed my posts, you know that I will always use the last line if it is a qualifying line, meaning a race where the horse ran 1st, 2nd or 3rd or if it showed good early speed at the first two calls (even if it faded in the stretch) or if it made a good middle move from the first call to the second call to be withing 2 lengths of the leader at the second call.

As you will see on the segments screen, the #1 horse had a substantial advantage at the first call. This tells me the horse will be able to control the pace.

But here is the real reason I am posting this.
In the conversation I had with Bill V., he told me he used line 2 for the #1 horse and he explained the reason for using that line.

Bill said he keeps all the old files, so he went back and looked at the last race for the #1 horse. What he found was a race with a lot of early speed in it and that was the reason for the early pressure put on the #1 horse. With that in mind, Bill rationalized that the race today was pretty much devoid of early pace pressure and so on that basis felt line 2 was more appropriate. This is what I call, going the extra mile!!!

Here are my screen shots followed by a screen shot of the #1 horse.

By the way, the #1 horse paid $16.60.