12/26/12 SA Malibu Stakes

[lone speed]

Well, we kick off the 2012-2013 Santa Anita season……this is a 71 days meet where the major races are the 3-4 year old stakes series starting off with the Grade 1 Malibu, the Santa Anita Derby, the Santa Anita Big Cap, and the closing day San Juan Capistrano starting from the hillside turf starting gate and ending after a mile and 3/4.

The Malibu is at 7 furlongs, some trainers have used this race as a stepping stone towards the Strubs stakes at a mile and an eighth later on in the season. We, as handicappers can see the sprint abilities of sprinters trying to stretch their 6 furlongs prowess one furlong further….what we can’t see so clearly are the routers with class to compare their internal splits to compare with the sprinters in this race…..

This is actually the kind of race, we should pass on a regular basis as there are no consistent comparable pacelines to evaluate…I only looked at this race because it is opening day and the morning line favorite looks vulnerable as he peaked in the Breeder’s Cup Sprint. This is the type of horse that I would hide in my analysis,,,,not because his odds are too low or is the favorite… I think that in this situation, it is best to hide as a strong contender…

I highlighted my pacelines that I had evaluated in the attached pps….

Malibu-bris.pdf

Thoromation came up EXDC with Politically Correct and Private Zone

Sp was Drill….I adjusted his San Vincente paceline for age adjustment….sorry …but it is what it is…

Thoromation came up Drill, Private Zone and Polically Correct…

This is not a good race to play on a regular basis due to incomparable pacelines…
But going by concepts….this 7 furlongs is best for milers or the class ability horse…

Fed Biz fits the profile….Baffert has 4 entries with Castaway as part of the early speed brigade with the two ONeil entries…but I don’t think the pace will be as fast as 43 and change….

Good skills….and away they go……as Trevor Denman would always say….