Applying Jim's "Projecting Pace" with Current software - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 05-17-2006, 03:56 PM

ok I have been watching this for 2 days and nights now and the results are pretty darn good. Bordering on amazing for quite lenghtly periods of time.

First off Jim shows TWO ways of projecting a "pace horse" for the race to measure other contenders by in his layout. I am using his FIRST way to find the "pace or boss" horse. These are Jim's words:

" There are two ways to project pace.

1. First, decide the horse that is likely to take the lead. In picking the horse that is going to take the lead, find a horse that has truly been in the lead at the first call. In the event none of the horses definitely had the lead, use a time where a horse tried for the lead or was up close.
Next, find a horse that was in the lead at the second call. Use the same procedure explained in finding the first call. Next, find a final time that matches the first two calls, and you have the projected pace of today's race. Never add beaten lengths to any of the fractional calls. Horses that do not match today's pace are will have difficulty winning. "

ok I am ONLY working races where I CAN identify a pace or boss horse or horses. These other paceless races I have no clue so I am leavin them alone for now.

DIRT RACES ONLY:
What I am seeing is that when entering representative pacelines for horses based on projecting pace the way Hat describes the horses that are winning are those that do NOT lose ground to the race pace during the 2nd fraction. This is based on using the matchup screen showing computed beaten lenghts in Spec150. Think this is only gonna get "early" horses? here are 2 races today from Belmont Park.

Race 1 -6f
ok I projected 1c at 22.1 and 2c at 45.3 based on the # 8 and # 9 horses from the pp's ok? So I was able to get lines for 4 horses in the machine all within say 1 tick at the 2c.

here is the initial screen shot of the 4 contenders

05-17-2006, 03:56 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Applying Jim's "Projecting Pace" with Current software ok I have been watching this for 2 days and nights now and the results are pretty darn good. Bordering on amazing for quite lenghtly periods of time. First off Jim shows TWO ways of projecting a "pace horse" for the race to measure other contenders by in his layout. I am using his FIRST way to find the "pace or boss" horse. These are Jim's words: " There are two ways to project pace. 1. First, decide the horse that is likely to take the lead. In picking the horse that is going to take the lead, find a horse that has truly been in the lead at the first call. In the event none of the horses definitely had the lead, use a time where a horse tried for the lead or was up close. Next, find a horse that was in the lead at the second call. Use the same procedure explained in finding the first call. Next, find a final time that matches the first two calls, and you have the projected pace of today's race. Never add beaten lengths to any of the fractional calls. Horses that do not match today's pace are will have difficulty winning. " ok I am ONLY working races where I CAN identify a pace or boss horse or horses. These other paceless races I have no clue so I am leavin them alone for now. DIRT RACES ONLY: What I am seeing is that when entering representative pacelines for horses based on projecting pace the way Hat describes the horses that are winning are those that do NOT lose ground to the race pace during the 2nd fraction. This is based on using the matchup screen showing computed beaten lenghts in Spec150. Think this is only gonna get "early" horses? here are 2 races today from Belmont Park. Race 1 -6f ok I projected 1c at 22.1 and 2c at 45.3 based on the # 8 and # 9 horses from the pp's ok? So I was able to get lines for 4 horses in the machine all within say 1 tick at the 2c. here is the initial screen shot of the 4 contenders Attached Images Last edited by RichieP; 05-17-2006 at 04:03 PM.