Contender/paceline guidelines

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by mrhug

Thanks Lead and Mike. Along with reading and testing, your input has been very helpful. I am going to start another thread based on something I am really struggling with.
Thanks again
Melvin
From your previous post.
The next thing is, just how far back are you going to go for a line?
Suppose today's race is a sprint and the horse hasn't been in a sprint race in any of its' last 3 starts.
Suppose the last sprint race was 120 days, or more, ago? If you use that line is it really an indication of how the horse will perform today?
Worse yet, suppose that line isn't the best of last 3 dist/surf and you end up going back 6 months for that "best of last 3 dist/surf" line.

Do you not use a line if these two sceniaros are present?
ANSWER: No, I don't. It was never intended that every horse in the race was to be given a line, ONLY THE REAL CONTENDERS. I understand that "the modern" methodology starts with follow up #71, but you would do well to read the follow ups starting with Follow Up #1! IF you are going to learn the methodology, then learn it the way it was taught...FROM THE BEGINNING!
Suppose the horse's last race was a sprint and today's race is a sprint.
Suppose further, that the last race was a 2nd place finish, but there is a faster (based on speed rating) race where the horse finished 1st 5 lines down and about 5 months ago but still within the "best of last 3 dist/surf" guidelines. Which line do you think is more predictive of the horse's current form and condition?
This is where I am really having a problem. Deciding if the horse will be back in form to repeat this race.
ANSWER:
Allow me to be blunt.
How many people "really know" the answer to that question?
Of course you struggle with that decision. So does everyone else.
The most recent piece of information is the best answer.

Good Luck and Good Reading!