The Importance Of An Automatic Accurate Pace Projection Feature In Your Software

[partsnut]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

One could also make the argument, base on your screen shots, that the horse was "early" and that is the reason it won. It was the best early horse. AND, it ran that way.

This takes nothing away from your concept. Determining whether a race will run early or late is certainly a key to picking the right horse, I'm just not sure this is the correct way to go about it.

Then, of course, there is always the matter of "paceline selection".

A "few" races is never the answer. It takes thousands of races to really get a handle on how something performs and each person would have to do it themselves based on their individual paceline selection method.

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FTL, There is no perfection in race projection. This race actually ran a touch fast and slightly over par. The actual pace of the race was slower then the projection. However, although it appears that it favored early, the early horse was the best sustained horse.

If you split any race into two segments, first and second call and second and third call, it will be apparent which horse or horses favor Early or Sustained (Not Late). Sustained does not mean late.
A slow pace favors early (first 2 fractions) and a fast pace favors sustained (last 2 fractions). Races that run to par or slightly above it, generally favor sustained and visa versa.

Although not perfect, it is predictive in most cases.