Historical % of winning favs

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Yes FTL I was referring to the 50% of races won by the favorites at Penn...

I know you have done work in modeling and profiling.....

My question is why do you think that 50% wont hold up?

Are the winners falling in the decision models you have ?

Are they much smarter bettors there?

Is the quality of horses there really that bad?

Your take in this

thxs
mike

Why don't I think it will hold up? Well, the next time a track runs a full meet and ends up with a winning favorite percentage of 50%.....will be the FIRST time!

Do the favorites that win fit my models? Gee, I hope so for the sake of my models. Why wouldn't they fit? Just because they are favorites? Many times I find the favorite is a PREFECT MATCH to my model, but that doesn't mean I'm playing them. In fact, it's a good reason NOT to play them, since that is just further evidence that they are the correct horse and likely winner. So this a perfect "PASS RACE". I'm not looking for "action", I'm looking for "value" and with patience I will find that same perfect match at odds of 4/1 or higher.

Are the bettors smarter there? Meaning at Penn National as compared to some other track? That doesn't exist any longer as a result of simulcasting. With simulcasting money comes into the pool at all tracks from all over the country, so it is impossible to determine which track has the most intelligent bettors. In the old days, before simulcasting, the word was New York had the most intelligent bettors. IMAGINE THAT!!! lol

The quality of horses doesn't matter. History shows that be it Santa Anita or Charles Town, favorites win at the rate of about 33%.