Wagering based on Morning Line / Many Benefits - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 04-11-2006, 06:35 PM

1) Freedom to have a life outside of racing. No more being a "slave to the toteboard". **** that bull**** man.

2) Freedom from all the EMOTIONAL stuff that affects us when we are wagering "live". Dick wrote about this a while ago: when you bet at even ONE minute to post do you really get an ACCURATE idea of the eventual price that your horse(s) go off at after all the simul cash comes in?

3) for every horse advanced bet that gets "bet down" below the morning line you will get 1 that is 5/1 ml and wins at 25-40 dollars. So what really have we lost?
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Ok I have been wagering like this exclusively for 3 weeks now and here are a few things that I do that might be of some help if u wanna try it ok?

1) I always work my cards between 6 and 8 in the morning. It's a quiet and reflective time period for me when I notice my powers to FOCUS seem to be at it's peak. There is also this SAME "window" for you. Get quiet with yourself and it will come to you. Timeframe will probably be different BUT it is there.

2) After finding a particular race that seems to be crying out for a wager I THEN take a couple of minutes to do these things which seem to be helping as far as how the betting might take place later on:

a) look at the RECENCY issues of the race. If your horse is big on the ml BUT has a good race within the last 14-30 days and the top 1 or 2 ml favs come into the race off layoffs of at least 60 days COUNT on your horse being bet below his ml. Most probably WELL below. I am seeing this over and over and over. Factor this into your final decision making process on whether or not a TRUE value bet might exist in THIS race for you to make. What I have just described is definitely a "REPEATING PATTERN".

b) what is the "field size" of the race? There are more opportunities for the money to be spread around in fields of at least 7 horses.

c) look at the top 2 ml favorites. WHY are they listed as such? class? speed? connections? have they run recently a good race? are they dropping in company for today's race? We can find some good clues here a lot of time that will foretell the actual betting that will go in later. It takes a bit of time and practice but I am getting better at this and so can you ok?

d) LOOK at YOUR horse being considered for a wager. I am really working hard to identify before I make the bet WHY is THIS horse worthy of me betting my money on? Sounds crazy maybe but I really am working on IDENTIFYING in WRITING why THIS HORSE in THIS RACE. Helps weed out the so called "marginal bets" that almost always cost me losses as they are REALLY "action bets" after I get REAL with myself.

e) when a bet has been identified as a "GO" then go and BET the horse IMMEDIATELY. I mean right then and there man. **** waiting around for this and that. you have identified a TRUE value wager in advacnce?

BET THE HORSE - BET THE HORSE - BET THE HORSE

you have done all you can Now relax. The races will take care of the rest ok?

Regards,
Richie
" No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse" - Richard Sasuly

04-11-2006, 06:35 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Wagering based on Morning Line / Many Benefits 1) Freedom to have a life outside of racing. No more being a "slave to the toteboard". ** that bull man. 2) Freedom from all the EMOTIONAL stuff that affects us when we are wagering "live". Dick wrote about this a while ago: when you bet at even ONE minute to post do you really get an ACCURATE idea of the eventual price that your horse(s) go off at after all the simul cash comes in? 3) for every horse advanced bet that gets "bet down" below the morning line you will get 1 that is 5/1 ml and wins at 25-40 dollars. So what really have we lost? ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ok I have been wagering like this exclusively for 3 weeks now and here are a few things that I do that might be of some help if u wanna try it ok? 1) I always work my cards between 6 and 8 in the morning. It's a quiet and reflective time period for me when I notice my powers to FOCUS seem to be at it's peak. There is also this SAME "window" for you. Get quiet with yourself and it will come to you. Timeframe will probably be different BUT it is there. 2) After finding a particular race that seems to be crying out for a wager I THEN take a couple of minutes to do these things which seem to be helping as far as how the betting might take place later on: a) look at the RECENCY issues of the race. If your horse is big on the ml BUT has a good race within the last 14-30 days and the top 1 or 2 ml favs come into the race off layoffs of at least 60 days COUNT on your horse being bet below his ml. Most probably WELL below. I am seeing this over and over and over. Factor this into your final decision making process on whether or not a TRUE value bet might exist in THIS race for you to make. What I have just described is definitely a "REPEATING PATTERN". b) what is the "field size" of the race? There are more opportunities for the money to be spread around in fields of at least 7 horses. c) look at the top 2 ml favorites. WHY are they listed as such? class? speed? connections? have they run recently a good race? are they dropping in company for today's race? We can find some good clues here a lot of time that will foretell the actual betting that will go in later. It takes a bit of time and practice but I am getting better at this and so can you ok? d) LOOK at YOUR horse being considered for a wager. I am really working hard to identify before I make the bet WHY is THIS horse worthy of me betting my money on? Sounds crazy maybe but I really am working on IDENTIFYING in WRITING why THIS HORSE in THIS RACE. Helps weed out the so called "marginal bets" that almost always cost me losses as they are REALLY "action bets" after I get REAL with myself. e) when a bet has been identified as a "GO" then go and BET the horse IMMEDIATELY. I mean right then and there man. ** waiting around for this and that. you have identified a TRUE value wager in advacnce? BET THE HORSE - BET THE HORSE - BET THE HORSE you have done all you can Now relax. The races will take care of the rest ok? Regards, Richie " No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse" - Richard Sasuly