A Disappointed RDSS Evaluator

[J2EEDeveloper]

Originally Posted by BJennet

J2EED,

After reading both your e-mail and the later post, it's still not entirely clear what you expect from RDSS. As Ted says, you may be happier with database software, but you expressed unhappiness with HTR, which is used by at least a few pro handicappers, and is highly regarded.

If you're looking for black-box software, there are none commercially available, although there are some successful proprietary programs of which William Benter's logit model is the most famous and undoubtedly the most successful. All developers of the latter describe having invested years of time and labor in the development of their programs. It took Benter five years and hundreds of thousands of dollars to get his into the black. I think it's easy to understand why these programs they won't be available commercially.

In addition, a number of people with graduate-level training in statistics have described, on the Paceadvantage website, their many failures to come up with a successful model, and the grueling nature of their investigations, despite their knowledge. The dangers of backfitting and multicollinearity are two frequently mentioned issues.

From the tone of your questions, I'd say you somewhat underestimate these difficulties, since only a very few people have succeeded. And if black-box-like performance is what you seek, you'll probably have to develop your own.

Re the Sartin methodology, it sounds as though you always had difficulties with it, so one wonders why you've returned. However if you give it a chance, and follow the instructions, the program works as claimed. In my experience, the top 3 choices win 80% of the races, but as many have noted, the low-hanging fruit of the early years is gone. This is why, as Ted points out, Doc Sartin adopted Dick Mitchell's method of betting only on overlays, a process that he describes in detail in the last dozen or so issues of the Follow Up. In my experience, the wager value of the Sartin pace figures continues to hold up, and although you probably wouldn't believe my own results, I think that an ROI of 15% is within the range of what a moderately successful user can expect.

Apparently Ted is working on a software package that will provide an additional degree of automation for this process, which may be closer to what you're looking for.

Whatever you decide, I wish you the best of luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

I am well aware of the difficulties involved in generating a positive return, especially with a software application. I am also well aware that the solution (and the profit) is in zigging when everyone else is zagging. It is not so much that the low-hanging fruit of the years past is no longer available, but rather that it is no longer available using the same approaches that worked then.

I have had a considerable amount of success with the Sartin Methodology, and pace analysis in general. It would be misleading to think I have always had problems with it. I think other factors are involved in race outcomes, but I am in no way dissatisfied or disgruntled with the Sartin approach.

My renewed interest in the Sartin Methodology is directly related to the fact that an associate is using Bob Purdy's Synergism application with modest success, and I thought RDSS would be an improvement on that. However, my understanding (which could easily be wrong) is that contender and pace line selection is pretty much automated in Synergism.

How many tracks/races do you customarily wager on?

Best Regards