EVD 2nd -- Wednesday, March 15 - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 03-15-2006, 06:30 PM

Here are some thoughts about EVD. Lots of folks are doing this card tonight with Speculator. So this will be quickie... may as well ride on some of their shoulders.

1st:
Almost everyone can run to par. This is a suicide speed race if I've ever seen one. There are three horses with seven speed points and three horses with six speed points. With the speed collapsing all over the place it may be difficult for closers to find room. I'm looking at two of the speedballs at nice odds. # 8 Dream Town at 12-1 with good connections and #9 Spruce's Halo at 10-1 with the best Total Energy.

2nd:
This 4.5F event doesn't really excite me. Only three horses can run to par. #12 Sassy Stacy at 10-1 might be interesting.

3rd:
This two turn mile race doesn't have anyone leaping off the page. #9 Kincora Lad, the probable favorite, has "unknown" written all over him. I'll take a pass.

4th:
I like #2 Party Hunter to go wire-to-wire at 20-1. Both of the favorites, #6 and #1, look legitimate with the best Line Scores. So, I might be pushing the envelope here. On the other hand Party Hunter's 1F and 2F blow this field away. This might be a money maker.

5th:
There are only two early runners with the speed points to suggest success, #11 and #14. I prefer #11 (but not at 3-1). Neither is a price. #13 and #6 are the price horses, but the lack of Total Energy really makes them non-contenders. I'll probably pass.

6th:
One of the probable favorites, #6 Total Demand, is a horse for course and may be tough to beat. However, I have an automatic bet here. #3 Mighty Mystery is tops in Total Energy and is 10-1 on the morning line. For me that's a no brainer.

7th:
#2 Grand Marshall is a need to lead type with eight speed points. And he does have best Early Pace rating. On the other hand that pace rating is below par and he tends to throw in the towel. At 6-1 he's no bargain. #1 Flaming Cajun is the other front runner with seven speed points. At 5-1 he's no great shakes either though. #9 Krises Bells has the best Total Energy of the group by far, but it's still below par. And I can't get excited about a sup-par horse at 3-1. The only value I can find is #7 Ten Steps at 8-1. He's okay, nothing great, but I suppose he's worth a couple of bucks at that price.

That's enough for now.

03-15-2006, 06:30 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	EVD 2nd -- Wednesday, March 15 Here are some thoughts about EVD. Lots of folks are doing this card tonight with Speculator. So this will be quickie... may as well ride on some of their shoulders. 1st: Almost everyone can run to par. This is a suicide speed race if I've ever seen one. There are three horses with seven speed points and three horses with six speed points. With the speed collapsing all over the place it may be difficult for closers to find room. I'm looking at two of the speedballs at nice odds. # 8 Dream Town at 12-1 with good connections and #9 Spruce's Halo at 10-1 with the best Total Energy. 2nd: This 4.5F event doesn't really excite me. Only three horses can run to par. #12 Sassy Stacy at 10-1 might be interesting. 3rd: This two turn mile race doesn't have anyone leaping off the page. #9 Kincora Lad, the probable favorite, has "unknown" written all over him. I'll take a pass. 4th: I like #2 Party Hunter to go wire-to-wire at 20-1. Both of the favorites, #6 and #1, look legitimate with the best Line Scores. So, I might be pushing the envelope here. On the other hand Party Hunter's 1F and 2F blow this field away. This might be a money maker. 5th: There are only two early runners with the speed points to suggest success, #11 and #14. I prefer #11 (but not at 3-1). Neither is a price. #13 and #6 are the price horses, but the lack of Total Energy really makes them non-contenders. I'll probably pass. 6th: One of the probable favorites, #6 Total Demand, is a horse for course and may be tough to beat. However, I have an automatic bet here. #3 Mighty Mystery is tops in Total Energy and is 10-1 on the morning line. For me that's a no brainer. 7th: #2 Grand Marshall is a need to lead type with eight speed points. And he does have best Early Pace rating. On the other hand that pace rating is below par and he tends to throw in the towel. At 6-1 he's no bargain. #1 Flaming Cajun is the other front runner with seven speed points. At 5-1 he's no great shakes either though. #9 Krises Bells has the best Total Energy of the group by far, but it's still below par. And I can't get excited about a sup-par horse at 3-1. The only value I can find is #7 Ten Steps at 8-1. He's okay, nothing great, but I suppose he's worth a couple of bucks at that price. That's enough for now.