Trying to Beat Rachel Alexandra - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 04-29-2009, 01:43 PM

In the hopes of finding a decent price to use in pick 3, Oaks-Derby Dbl and other races:

First the bad news: first screen shot. RA's last four races would put her tops in the BL/BL. The 2nd shot shows that her energy is used late, but visually, at least, she doesn't need the lead (3rd line).

A Glimmer of Hope: RA's first route at CD was using sustained energy and she couldn't make the lead running 46.3 and 110.3. Nobody ran anywhere near close to 111 against her, so she took the lead in anywhere from 112 to 112.3, or so.

3rd shot: Gabby shows wire to wire in 22.9, but the Form running line actually shows that she was second by 1, which is why I called her an E/P. Track charts I've seen rate OP and Sun about equal for routes, although RDSS downgrades the Sunland time when you view the adjusted data, slowing down Gabby quite a bit. So this raises a question as to whether RA can be pressed at all. If she can't, I think the race is over.

But, if she can be pressed and if Gabby can gun to the early lead to apply that pressure, Justwhistledixie, passing horses and gaining ground against a 110.2 pace can go by her. Back adjusting her finish time (149.3 - 6.4) [all in 10th's here] would make her finish time 142.9 - she wins by 2 or more.

So I think anyone can finish second and Nan might hit 2nd, more probably 3rd to pick up pieces of front end duel with her closing kick. The only neg for Nan is that of the race tracks shown for the contenders SA is by far the fastest. If you downgrade Nan from that, she probably can't hit the board.

And a big tip of the hat to Wayne Lukas for entering enough horses that the prices might be reasonable in the event the favorite can be beat!

Comment away!

04-29-2009, 01:43 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	Trying to Beat Rachel Alexandra In the hopes of finding a decent price to use in pick 3, Oaks-Derby Dbl and other races: First the bad news: first screen shot. RA's last four races would put her tops in the BL/BL. The 2nd shot shows that her energy is used late, but visually, at least, she doesn't need the lead (3rd line). A Glimmer of Hope: RA's first route at CD was using sustained energy and she couldn't make the lead running 46.3 and 110.3. Nobody ran anywhere near close to 111 against her, so she took the lead in anywhere from 112 to 112.3, or so. 3rd shot: Gabby shows wire to wire in 22.9, but the Form running line actually shows that she was second by 1, which is why I called her an E/P. Track charts I've seen rate OP and Sun about equal for routes, although RDSS downgrades the Sunland time when you view the adjusted data, slowing down Gabby quite a bit. So this raises a question as to whether RA can be pressed at all. If she can't, I think the race is over. But, if she can be pressed and if Gabby can gun to the early lead to apply that pressure, Justwhistledixie, passing horses and gaining ground against a 110.2 pace can go by her. Back adjusting her finish time (149.3 - 6.4) [all in 10th's here] would make her finish time 142.9 - she wins by 2 or more. So I think anyone can finish second and Nan might hit 2nd, more probably 3rd to pick up pieces of front end duel with her closing kick. The only neg for Nan is that of the race tracks shown for the contenders SA is by far the fastest. If you downgrade Nan from that, she probably can't hit the board. And a big tip of the hat to Wayne Lukas for entering enough horses that the prices might be reasonable in the event the favorite can be beat! Comment away! Attached Images