The predictive e/l balance

[Tim Y]

"The weighted difference between the 2nd call and final fraction."

This simple number, particularly when studied throughout a specific horse's past performances, can tell a lot about the form cycle, the animal's usual running style, it's maturity, it's ability to handle certain distances and/or surfaces, can help you spot an isolated BIG MOVE that usually does not repeat (which happens all the time when a pace collapses or is so slow to the second call that the said runner has tons left) AND when used in evaluating those in a single field of runners (e/l relativity, and angle first introduced here last year), and help to eliminate those runners that are going to be too far out of the pace scenario to logically "get up" in time. It also allows formation of a track model for each distance.

The use on babies alone is fantastic. In one of the Follow Ups the median percent of all of Secretariat's races was presented and as this great one matured, the median went DOWN. That, along with what I observed by working with trainers, started my observing how babies learn to run. The final status of this observation was the 2nd call maiden: a horse that is telling you it is learning how to spread out it's speed and graduating by running the quickest to the 2nd call in it's previous or next to last race. Few babies (other than the great ones) learn late moves early in their DIRT races. In first steps toward getting out of the maiden ranks, these types learn to apportion their speed.

Young horses in their quest to approach longer distances will tell you that they have an upper limit to their abilities by an ever increasing e/l number. Hard Spun was classic in this regard never quite getting a step past 9 furlongs. Many many young ones, heading to the Kentucky Derby can be eliminated this way.

Track Bias: the e/l is a remarkable tool, when kept on a race to race basis, in prediciting if your track is showing a bias, and to what degree. This has worked fantastically at Churchill when the e/l of Oak's Day sets up the e/l for that first Saturday in May. At real speed favoring ovals like Aqu, Fe and Oaklawn, following it during the first few races, it can predict how the remainder of a card is going to run, or at courses that REALLY HAVE A BIG SWING in e/l (Woodbine) it can save you a lot of money and frustration.