Froggy/Value race tools/Rdss

[RichieP]

Froggy,
I was reading your comments to Forego in the selection area this morning.If you want to focus more on finding potential value races ahead of time I have something for you to consider that will help you.

I need you to give up betting one evening and give 4 HOURS to this project. I will give you some tools available NOW with RDSS that will help you.

The first 2 hours will be spent on THREE races that have run already where a chalk paying less than 5 dollars has won. 2 HOURS on THREE races. These chalk winning races will be called "CHALK".

The next 2 hours will be spent on THREE races that have already run where a value horse has won the race. Use a $12.00 and up win price for these THREE races please. 2 HOURS on THREE races. These value winning races will be called "VALUE".

Let me lay out a few RDSS tools that I think can help xray a race and identify some potential PATTERNS for either value or a race where the chalk might well be the answer.

1) The Original screen on top half coupled with Energy tab on lower half.

Energy tab shows patterns of speed ratings (improving,declining, good race/bad race etc.) that can be paired up with % med numbers on same screen to see the horses "good races". Also will help show improving horses who it might be wise to choose a line deeper in pp's but one which reflects a natural progression expected TODAY. Also can be used to identify certain tracks who get inflated speed ratings on tracks labeled "gd" and "sly/my". They ARE there and considering another paceline in these cases might be a good idea.

Then you can use the Original tab on top to see if the horse only runs good races at a certain level. While most times this may not be of help there ARE without a doubt horses that will only perform well at certain levels. Conversely others who regardless of numbers will NOT perform well at certain levels. Also this screen shows layoff and layoff patterns looking at the days back for each race that will reveal things there to help in line selection for TODAY.

2) The TPR+EL tab. Sometimes this screen can show patterns of improve/decline(looking at the CPR totals) in a format easier for some minds to comprehend. Socantra is big on this screen. Likes it for it's ease of understanding a form cycle.

ok so now we have our THREE "chalk" races and 2 HOURS to look at them. What are we looking for? PATTERNS both on the winning chalk and the others in the race.

a) is the winning chalk the top speed rating in the field and has shown before in the pp's he can put back to back sharp races together?

b) is the winning chalk at a level where he has dominated before looking at the pp's?

c) is the winning chalk a front runner who has no real early threat today looking at the pp's?

d) are the losing horses in the race basically pigs? horses who do not WIN races( especially the ones closest ranked to the winning chalk)?

e) did I use a paceline for the losing horses that is NOT typical for the horse but more of a "one race" top that probably will not be repeated?

These are but a few of the things that can be looked at. With low paying winners there are patterns to there pp's that will show themselves. When you find one or 2 "keys" REMEMBER them.

Now when you are working a card BEFORE it runs and you come to a race that REMINDS you of these race types grab a piece of paper and make TWO columns.
1) CHALK
2) VALUE

Put THIS race under the column CHALK. Unless you need action a race to stay AWAY from and this is identified BEFORE the card runs.

Now you switch to the three VALUE races and look for patterns with them.
a) look at the fav. was he vulnerable? dropper? declining speed ratings? etc

b) look at the "contender mix". was it contentious? was there 3-5 horses ALL competitive and within 2-3 points of one another? THIS along with another pattern produces a LOT of VALUE races.

c) look at the VALUE race winner CLOSELY.
1) If a layoff horse did an "average" speed rating for him project him highly WITHOUT having to use his best number?
2) was he an improving horse rating wise? use the TPR and SR here to find pattern
3) was he an off the pace type in a race where there was quite a bit of early speed present? was he an up close type in a race where the majority were off the pace types?
4) was he just claimed by a sharp outfit where expected improvement is more than likely?

btw THAT EXACT scenario existed in Forego's winning Delaware race yesterday man. Check it out please. It is RIGHT THERE in the pp's.
5) was he returning to a level/track he cherishes and does very well on?

these and more can be looked at.

When you see or "feel" some of these patterns REMEMBER them. When you work a card BEFORE it runs and come across one of these races and RECOGNIZE the pattern of VALUE mark THIS race under the VALUE column on your pad. A race that with certainty you WILL be betting.

After you have worked a full card this way simply look at the columns. You will be AVOIDING the CHALK labeled races and betting with gusto the VALUE races.

If you check Forego's selections the past month posted well before any race ran you will see an amazing % of VALUE wins of his compared to low payers man. It's right there in black and white.

He is following this plan but is waiting to bet VALUE only in races where he has a perceived edge in that he knows the winning style needed for todays race.

Hope this helps and good hunting!
Richie