Live Zoom Tutorial/Discussion - 5/22/2025

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Hey Bill here is another factor that most people either don't know or use and that is that at every track on any surface and dist there is a minimum 3rd fraction that the horse needs to be able to run in order to win. As the HAT use to preach was that the race doesn't end at the 2nd call. Granted that most of my contenders will meet it but you will find races where some don't and I use it to downgrade those horses.
Tim

Good point Tim.
So I went back to the Model and asked for data that would tell me what the F3 values were for 6-6.5-7-8 at BAQ/AQU. Now these values are for all races at BAQ, no further breakdown and the values shown won 90% of the races.

The minimum/maximum F3 values for 90% of the winners:
6 furlongs: 48.3/55.7 fps
6.5 furlongs: 48.9/54.6
7.0 furlongs: 51.6/54.4
8.0 furlongs: 48.4/55.8