4 factor study now with Rx3 info

[Bill Lyster]

Go to the 4 factor sort page. I sent an email to all the members whose email I had. this file is what I am referring to.

The screen shot is just a partial page look at Non-maiden dirt races from Saratoga. The 4 factor info in yellow is summed in the 4Fctr column and a new column on the right sums the BL+Rx3+TSF3+TE info.

Three factor horses with poor CSR are shown in green with yellow CSR info. Notice how the new column totals soften the effect of the large original CSR info and how two of the non 4 factor horses who happen to have good Vdc and CSR put poor PL and BPP get better scores. If 18 is the parameter maximum then 91.5% could qualify as playable horses or perhaps would become ARROW horses.

The Rx3 data was not available in our original research. But notice that this new info does not override any of the total %ages for the other factors, even though the TSF3 top 4 hit 94% of the time. Also this new data is better than any of the VT, CVT, etc. info using the current parameters shown at the top of the columns.




Same spreadsheet with TURF non maidens. IN this case all 30 races shown.

Again, the new column data softens the effect of CSR >5 as well as for horses with >5 PL & BPP. Using 18 as max parameter score allows all but 4 horses to be considered. The 4 factor horses shown here are 73.3% whereas the new info lets 87% in. And in this case, for the races to date, this factor % is greater than any single one of the four factors top 4. This new data is better than any of the VT, CVT, etc. info using the current parameters shown at the top of the columns.



This data points to the factor that the info for turf racing has historically lagged that of dirt races. All of my research shows that the best factors in turf racing produce fewer winners than the same info for dirt races. We need to find something that points out turf winners better. More on this in another email I am working on.




One note of caution. We don't know if an 18 pt total will eliminate many or any horses, so we need more races to test against. You can see from the file I sent today which races were worked. So we can revisit those races to determine the efficacy of the 18 point total for this possible compound factor.

I will post more about turf factors in the next post to the group.