Kentucky Derby Analysis

[Lt1]

I thought I would share how I handle the Derby every yr, As Richie P posted in the Derby thread I emailed him my picks earlier in the day Sat.
LT. Tim emailed me before the Derby his look (even though he said he wasn't playing CD.) He is soooo consistent with his method it really is something to behold! This is what he sent 5 hours before the Derby went off!

Timothy Gagas
Sat, May 6, 1:32 PM (21 hours ago)
to me

5-8-2-1 ls14-ls22
The first thing I do is change the dist to 9f, I do this so as not to deal with projecting 8.0 & 8.5 lines that in most yrs a lot of horses have I use the top5 PL & BPP as my contenders. I also pay attention to the Docs' missive that G1 & G2 races are won by horses the have either won or placed in a G1 or G2 race. Yes I know these are 3 yr yr olds that may improve overnight however this approach has work very well over the yrs. I live with rare times I get bit. This yr pl selection was cut and dry. Most evry horse had a 9f race to use. Here are the screen shots,





I included the entry screen screen to show the top 5 PL &BPP horses.
Our winner tiers 4th BL/BL & 3RD RX WHILE THE place horse tiers 5th For the record here is what our contenders did in their qualifying races
#1 2nd in G2
#2 2ND G2
#3 3RD G2
#5 WON G1
#8 2nd G1
#14 WON G1
#22 2ND G1
So we get the win,dd,ex tri and if I remember the super. This is also the way I handle the Bel 12f to 9f.
Tim