Follow Up 2nd Call Beaten Lengths - Pace and Cap

Lt1 · 12-09-2021, 11:35 AM

Since I had a lot of free time I decided to give this factor 1 more look. Previously I had reported finding 400 horses being too far behind at the 2c[I established bl by taking the the 2c bl listed in the Bris pps and adding 2 more to the total]. A total of only 44[11%] were able to win despite the broader parameters. This time I found another 200 horses outside the parameters and here are the results. The tracks used were Parx,Tdn, MVR,Lrl,OP.
Horses Winners Placed Showed Out of Money
200 22 18 16 144
Once again the win % was 11%. So after 600 races, over a good cross section of tracks, the 11 % win has remained constant leading me to conclude that it is still safe to toss these horses from win consideration. Keep in mind that others may get different results based on contenders, pacelines, & tracks played.
Tim

12-09-2021, 11:35 AM	#1
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,274	Follow Up 2nd Call Beaten Lengths Since I had a lot of free time I decided to give this factor 1 more look. Previously I had reported finding 400 horses being too far behind at the 2c[I established bl by taking the the 2c bl listed in the Bris pps and adding 2 more to the total]. A total of only 44[11%] were able to win despite the broader parameters. This time I found another 200 horses outside the parameters and here are the results. The tracks used were Parx,Tdn, MVR,Lrl,OP. Horses Winners Placed Showed Out of Money 200 22 18 16 144 Once again the win % was 11%. So after 600 races, over a good cross section of tracks, the 11 % win has remained constant leading me to conclude that it is still safe to toss these horses from win consideration. Keep in mind that others may get different results based on contenders, pacelines, & tracks played. Tim __________________ Trust but verify

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