Old ideas work

[MikeB]

Originally Posted by barb craven

I am. I didn't set out to use it. I was looking at all readouts to see what would work for elimination at Saratoga when using the 2 highest TPP lines for each horse. Using TPP for the 2 best lines was Ted's idea. After experimenting with different processes for elimination, I found TT was the only consistent one for Saratoga. When I mentioned this to Ted, he found it sufficiently interesting that he suggested (rather forcefully for him) that I post my findings here. It is working at Saratoga. Whether or not it works at other tracks remains to be seen. I would like it to work at Woodbine, but who knows yet.

By coincidence, I have been going back through Tom Brohamer's 'Modern Pace Handicapping' (MPH) when I came across this thread. Tom is a big fan of turn time as a strong indicator, but not as a stand alone handicapping tool. He has a whole chapter in the book on the subject.

In brief, he says that TT is the most consistent part of the performance of a horse in good form, and that increasing or decreasing TT indicates the direction of change in recent form. He says that good TT numbers indicate a presser that can take the lead if multiple early horses are likely to burn each other out, and that TT is a strong indicator of the ability of a horse to step up in class, as from claiming to conditioned allowance races.

He also says that TT is more dependable in cheaper races, and in sprints more so than routes. A weak TT is an especially bad warning sign for a horse coming out of a maiden win and moving up into open competition.