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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

 
 
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Old 04-05-2016, 01:03 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
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Phase 1 race TUP race 6 4/5

My look at the 6th from Turf Paradise 5.5
Az Breds Cl 3000 3 + non winners of 1 race in 6 months or 4 races life time
Horse 1 has 12 wins Horse 2 has 10 wins Rest of field have 3 wins each
Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
9 5 4 2 6

Step 2 Fulcrum horse
#2 94.5 ( 44.7 )

Step 3 Running styles
Horse 1 Sus line 1 20/1 ML
Horse 2 Early Line 1
Horse 3 Press Line 2 Excuse line 1 First try at TUP
Horse 4 EP line 1
Horse 5 Sus line 1 20/1 ML
Horse 6 EP Line 1
Horse 7 EP Line 1
Horse 8 Press line 2
Horse 9 Press line 1


Step 4 Who has the top EPR
The 2 has the best EPR 94.5
Early Presser
Can It go wire to wire = No but it is inside the 4 6 and 7
However the 79.5 LPR is a knock

Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions
Can the top TPR # 9 win 2 in a row ?
The top TPR horses
They are 9 8 5
Top 3 VDC = 4 2 9-8 tie

My bets 4 and 9
I will use the 5 in exactas

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