Contenders

[Latekick]

Bill its Del Mar Race 2 #8

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Latekick

Bill, this is a real horse running today and i want to see what you have to say about this paceline selection.
Okay this is a 6f race on a POLY track. His last race he earned an 83 SR while going 6f over a poly track. 2 back he earned an 84 while going 6f on turf, and 3 back was his best of the last 3 with a 92 bt it was 6f on a DIRT surface. I chose the last line even though its not the best SR ( by the way they re all plus races)
This is the problem im running into a bit. I chose the last line even though its not his best, and this may rank the horse lower than his 3 line would, so this horse may be a winner off of his 3 line which is the best of the last 3, but since i chose his last race on Poly, the SR is lower thus it may be lower ranked in my rankings. Thats what my problem has started to become. Horses that WOULD be ranaked highly if i use the best of last 3, but decide not too because of a reason as i just stated. His 92 going 6f on a DIRT surface is 9 points higher than the line i chose last race on a POLY. Whats your thoughts

This is a tough call And I hope I get some help because my opinion might not be the best

Here is the horse .. the issues are of course the surface but we also have a
horse that ran a zero race in the last race but the POR was fast

We also have a horse who has been in the barn much more often than normal
and as a 3 year old this looks like a hurt horse after
line 3. Line 3 is a plus race against 3 year olds in a 75,000 stakes race.
But then it went on a break I would throw out line 2 Its a down the hill turf race at Santa Anita and these races are so unlike regular sprints because of the early POR adjustments that need to be factored in. I just disregard any down the hill paceline.

Line 1 will put this horse 4th on blbl for me
So a 4/1 ML and the question of is this horse's form,
I am not sure I am stumped Would bite the bullet and just watch
If there was no break after the stakes race and it was lesss than 90 days ago
I would use line 3 and excuse the last line as a higher purse race and a tired horse

Hope you get a better answer. Tough call for me

[Latekick]

Bill thanks for posting this.
I am personally very much against this horse, the only reason i brought him up was because i thought the pace line selection was interesting.
In this race i selected #7 THE WHOLE DEAL. I see you dont even have him in you BL/BL, and this interests me. I used his line 3 back in his win, yes it was OC80k and now hes in for 32k, but ALL these horses in this race are making similar moves, i think they are all going downhill, so this will be a tough race.
I am not firmly convinced on any of these horses

[Bill V.]

You and I both.. This is a pass- do some lady watching race for me.
I am weary of these turf lines I know turf horses can win on the poly but ..
this one looks like a downhill specialist


I wonder why a turf horse does not stay on the turf in California were
there are turf races all the time . but were else can they go until they get back to SA and the hill

Bill

[Latekick]

Looking forward to see who wins this race, this one can go to ANYONE

[Because I Can Jim]

Latekick,
I'll try to keep this short....LOL (for me that is next to impossible)

Just so there are no illusions...Back in 1985 I was profitable using the methodology (and that is exactly what it is - a method - a set of guidlines) learning from the Doc, Bradshaw, Brohamer, and the teachers from the PIRCO group at that time. However, I got away from racing. In April of this year (2013) I decided to pursue this in earnest. So, while I speak like I know what I am talking about, which I did, today as of this writing, I don't put money through the windows. Why?

You wrote "All of this is very important to me and being that I don't quite have a very high bankroll to play on, every wager is critical. I have been stryggling lately with horses that just don't rank very well beating me, and I need to stop this problem before it runs me broke."

That is exactly why. You are putting money through the window before you fix the problem.

When I first learned, I did it on paper using old Daily Racing Forms. (I had like three years worth of the paper stacked up in a corner.) I took the time to learn on paper. It wasn't enough to just show that I stats that said I was profitable....I had to feel it deep in my psyche to know for myself.

Yet, I didn't just jump into putting money through the windows. I handicapped live but on paper until again I had profitable stats and felt it deep in my psyche (notice I said profitable and not winning - I know, I know, the psychological mumbo jumbo - LOL). Then I progressed to putting money through the windows. That was then.

This is now...

While I had the previous knowledge somewhat stored somewhere in my mind, when I looked at the methodology and RDSS2 as it was being used today, I was rather confused. It looked very different from what I knew. So, I started on paper, again.

Now is the end of July. I have learned that while everything seems different, it is still very much the same at the core of the methodology. The way I approach a race is very different from the way I used to (this is a function of the advancements made from when I first learned - for example, I recognize the velocity tabs and even the energy tab, but, I never look at the velocity tab any more), yet, the fundamental principles still apply that are in For The Leads teaching thread. You can get the database just by downloading it and work through the material even though it takes away from doing live races. There is much to be learned and should be learned without putting money on the line.

And while I have changed my method of handicapping, I can say without a doubt that reading Bill's posts is like listening to the Doc as reincarnated. He is a walking encyclopedia of the method I read every word of his. The way he handicaps is very much similiar to the way I handicapped.

While I have spent about 4 months "again" learning the methodolgy, I have progressed from on paper using old races to on paper using live races and find myself profitable. Yet, I will not put money through the windows until I feel it in my bones that I am profitable at which time I will "go live" which will not be too much longer.

So while I speak from authority, I am also a beginner. It seems a contradiction, but, my past experience allows me to have a very unique perspective on the methodology as a whole.

I quoted you. You also raised a good question for you and one that you need to learn the answer to either by yourself (the answer is found in the practical application of what is in the teaching thread and remember nothing is 100% as there will always be nuances) or with someone's help and FTL and Bill both offer premium counseling/advice. If you are losing money, then stop putting money through the window until you do learn the answer to your question(s) that may be holding you back from being profitable.

Which as my last bit of advice... didn't I say I would try to keep this short???? LOL

If you are wagering and you come across a race that you have a question in your mind that does not allow you to make a clear distinction in your mind about the race, what should you do?

PASS THE RACE!!!

That is what winners do. If they are not sure about something after drawing upon their knowledge and experience, they pass the race. It has been written about time and again, but, each individual has to come to grasp with passing races in their own way. Emotionally, I would be heart sick if I could only wager on the weekend, spending hours handicapping and able to wager on only a few races. Mentally, I am making money! Playing to many races, I am losing money. Which do I want - the action or the profits? The choices are unique to every individual.

On paper from using old races, in the "comfort" of a risk free environment, I will handicap a card and amazingly, will only pass one or two races that I look at. Meaning as an example, if there are 10 races on the card, maybe I will not look at the two maiden races with many first time starters. Out o fthe remaining 8 races, I would pass only 1 or 2.

When I moved to using live races, yet, doing them on paper, now I pass 5 or 6 of those 8. Why? Confidence.

If I did not handicap the card today and three months from now I decided to look at the card, I would probably pass only 1 or 2, yet, today, I am passing 5 or 6.

But, and here is the important point..... I am PASSING the races. If I am unsure and I am not playing, I am not losing. Period.

If you make the argument that I am not winning, that is true but only due to lack of confidence. As I see that what I am doing is working, I will have more confidence to make the wagers and see the winning results which will give me more confidence. Yet, I still have the profitable method from which to progress from. Without it....

Sorry, everyone, that I got sidetracked since this original thread was about contender selection, but, I write as I see them which is quite often off the beaten path.

Jim

[Because I Can Jim]

Heh, heh!!! Here I go again...not! LOL

I agree with Bill's assessment of Disarm as far as possibly being hurt. However,...

Look at the 4 April race 115 days ago for both horses. Same race with Disarm beating Whole. Look at their positions versus POR.

Whole was right where he should have been at the 2C. And so was Disarm. But, Disarm was facing a slightly faster POR 44 and 1 than he seems to be able to handle at a 44 and 3 or slower.

Now notice that Whole seems to be declining in form even though he is being run regularly and has recency.

Whereas Disarm may or may not be out of form. (Form and condition are not the same thing. It hay be out of condition - possibly hurt, but, I would argue against it being out of form.)

And this is where passing the race comes into play. You can see from Bill's assessment that he brings his entire body of knowledge and experience into play and is not sure - so he passes.

As for me, I would like to see more information. Unfortunately, I do not download Del Mar to see what else was in the race and cannot say one way or another although I do have questions, which would lean me towards passing the race also, but, that depends upon the other horses in the race.

The thing about these two horses is that the public will perceive them as "not a good horse to put money on". While I might be inclined to believe that about Whole, Disarm shows the kind of past performance that will pay a decent mutual. There are all of these 1's then 2's in the past then 5's and 6's in positions for the last two races. Depending upon what it is facing today, if it is a contender, it will go off at a higher price. It is a horse that can beat the favorite.

Whereas, with Whole, the public will shy away from this horse due to its Stretch and Final positions in its last two races and most likely rightly so becuse the 2C positions as compared to the POR it faced seem to be going out of form. Will its be a factor in today's race? If there are no other early horses, it will most likely have the lead and could possibly wire the field once again paying a high price. If there are other early horses or early pressing horses, it will run to the second call and then fade. It has to be considered because it will effect the POR. Unless there is no other horse that can run decently as a presser or sustained, then Whole would be a contender. But, if there is pressure up front, then no - not a contender, but, needs to be considered in "projecting" the race.

Which brings us back to Disarm. It is one of those horses that would be there just behind that early speed battle and would have enough in the tank as the early horses tire and would pass the horses that would be running slower due to the battle. The public would be on the favorites/early speed. While it does not look that great, it does not look that bad either and might be worth considering as a contender. If for some reason it found itself on the lead as in the past, then so much the better.

I wrote a post about numbers (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9206). Don't get too focused on the numbers. Focus on the relationships using the numbers to define the relationships.

If you focus on the numbers, you might come to a conclusion that Disarm cannot beat Whole due to the 4 APR race. But, that is not today and what might happen (the future) today. Remember, we are prognosticators - we take educated guesses at the future. No one knows until the race has been run. All we can do is to look at the information and form an opinion. Without a clear opinion, PASS........

[Latekick]

Jim im going to respond to your posts but first id like Bill or anyone who has this card to post they re line selection and BL BL and tell me HOW in the world the #1 horse won this race

[Bill V.]

Hi Late Kick

I did not bet this race. I left Del Mar right after the first race,
I was betting PrX MTH and Saratoga in the early bird area.
I wanted to watch the Haskell online and talk to dad about the race.

Congrats to Verrazono

Anyway I have not seen the chart for the race 2 but I am pretty sure the 1 was on or close to the lead.

Before I show the other horses here is my thinking about the winner
Here we see of my contenders the 1 is ranked 2nd

Now looking at its pace lines I used line 2 Its a (+) plus within a zero
paceline The horse was within a neck of the lead at the 1/2 mile point
against much tougher $80,000 Optional Claimers before fading
Look at the early energy EPR number the 1 has a big advantage
and he earned it against better horses.

I could have used the Tampa line but it was a little farther back days ago
then I like. And heaven forbid I say "If I had used line 5 " LOL

[Latekick]

Do you have any input or screenshots on how the #1 just won the 5th race..
Another horse that i found impossible to get