The Preakness

[Mr.Pagine]

Here goes:

1) Mucho Macho Man
2) Sway Away

Will throw in Animal Kingdom and Dance City.

If it rains......... NO BET

Happy Punting

JDL

[malickdo]

Anyone have any luck (using RDSS) with the Preakness? ... I ended up with similar picks to JDL --

Please share if you had some luck picking .. thx

[Ted Craven]

Doug,

In the end I did not bet this race, just watched (got in kind of late, too). I felt fairly ambivalent about Animal Kingdom, MMM and Dialed In, and the EL 2.0 readout I posted elsewhere (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...3&postcount=18) - which disagreed fairly completely with the foregoing favourites - confused me greatly.

The best I could do is this Early / Late Differential analysis (EL 1.0 ?). The top 2 Early and Top 2 Late at least covered the Exacta.



From the Segments screen below, Shackleford and Dance City appear to be the capable Early horses (though Dance City as an EP was not going to challenge Shackleford for the lead, merely press). I don't think Flashpoint had established any credentials as an Early horse which could survive 9+ furlongs. So Segments gives additional confirmation to Shackleford's early potential.



My hindsight here is 20/20!

Ted

[mildeu]

Hello Ted,
What if.......
What would be the possability of addressing PEDIGREE in your next version of RDSS 2.0? I realize that this is not a subject discussed much in the Sartin Methodology, however in other situations I have encountered, along with Sartins programs, to wit we must think that all horses are fit and ready to run in every race, "The Preakness" along with the fact that Shackleford was ahead of every horse at this distance in "The Kentucky Derby", Animal Kingdom won by a small margin @ 10 Fur, it would stand to reason that this race would set up just about the same, (except distance) witch it did, with, Astrology, finishing 3rd. My question, to myself is, what are the separaters?

Though I don't perport to push ones programs and ideaologies on others, just let me present a result from "Breeding Winners,......I could have, but did not, play the very obvious, "SHAKLEFORD" on top, "ANIMAL KINGDOM second, and where in the world did "ASTROLOGY" come from. Just some Sunday morning thoughts.

Have Fun
mildeu

[Ted Craven]

Hi mildeu,

Can you clarify what is 'Breeding Winners'.

Also, given that the data will come from TrackMaster, what would be examples of breeding related data you would like to see in RDSS.

What I am adding into RDSS is the normal pedigree info including grand-dam and grand-sire. Also, a web link to pedigreequery.com.

But I think you might be looking for info such as 'offspring of these sires handle 10f well', or 'take to Turf well', etc, etc. I don't know if TrackMaster can supply such info, or if they can, I don't know if having it - on aggregate - gives sufficient extra benefit to offset the potential confusion of having to consider the extra data.

You can see I am not a pedigree maven! Any further rationale for adding this extra data (even eventually) would help.

cheers,

Ted

[mildeu]

Hi Ted,

Understanding (painfully) the many, many little bits we must look at to win a race, pedigree is just another....That being said and in answer to your questions.

"BREEDING WINNERS" is a site I happened upon (breedingwinners.com) that purports to analyze the pertinent suitability of the breeding of the horses to a certain style, track dist and composition and stamina. I find some interest in first time starters as well as higher class races......MUCH WORK. Some may want to check it out.

I will attach a screen shot of a race taken from another program (not breedingwiners.com) from "BRIS" Bloodstock single file past performances that gives a pretty good visual as to what I see.
Again, I am not making an attempt push or endorse any system developed by others, to the detriment of RDSS (THANK YOU, by the way).

I do not have the skills to extract this data from BRISs PPs as in csv? if even that is the correct word. However for your investigation....

mildeu

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by mildeu

Hi Ted,

Understanding (painfully) the many, many little bits we must look at to win a race, pedigree is just another....That being said and in answer to your questions.

"BREEDING WINNERS" is a site I happened upon (breedingwinners.com) that purports to analyze the pertinent suitability of the breeding of the horses to a certain style, track dist and composition and stamina. I find some interest in first time starters as well as higher class races......MUCH WORK. Some may want to check it out.

I will attach a screen shot of a race taken from another program (not breedingwiners.com) from "BRIS" Bloodstock single file past performances that gives a pretty good visual as to what I see.
Again, I am not making an attempt push or endorse any system developed by others, to the detriment of RDSS (THANK YOU, by the way).

I do not have the skills to extract this data from BRISs PPs as in csv? if even that is the correct word. However for your investigation....

mildeu

About "BRIS"

Company Overview
Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc. provides on-line information and data used by horse breeders and the horse racing industry. It produces handicapping and pedigree reports to racetracks, horse owners and breeders, horseplayers, and racing-related publications. The company is based in Lexington, Kentucky. As of June 11, 2007, Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc. is a subsidiary of Churchill Downs, Inc.
801 Corporate Drive
Third Floor
Suite 301
Lexington, KY 40503
United States
Founded in 1987


Now here is the same overview with just a couple items stricken from the statement.

Company Overview
Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc. provides information and data used by horse breeders and the horse racing industry. It produces pedigree reports to racetracks, horse owners and breeders, and racing-related publications. The company is based in Lexington, Kentucky.

This is how the online company most people know as “BRIS” or “BRISNET” got started. At that time there was no internet and they did not provide handicapping reports and the like. They were strictly an outlet for breeding information. Given that they are based in Kentucky that makes sense.
However, with the advent of the internet and all the things that go with that, it made sense for them to get involved in the handicapping aspect of the sport. It also makes sense that they would include in their handicapping material that which is the foundation of their company, breeding. That doesn’t mean breeding is a solid foundation for handicapping. Consider that SECRETARIAT was royally bred, but that none of his offspring demonstrated that breeding nor his racing ability. Consider also, that JOHN HENRY’s sire was a horse by the name of “Old Bob Bowers”, whose claim to fame was that he probably pulled a carriage in New York’s Central Park or perhaps an old fashioned milk wagon.

[mildeu]

To carry FTL's line a little further....
In Southern California there once was a trainer named Bobby Frankle, a name to be reckoned with.....He had a magnificent animal whom he called by the name of "SIMPLY MAJESTIC"
Mr. Frankle brought his very nice and accomplised noble steed to Washington State, to wit, Longacres Race Track for the annual running of the, (you guessed it),The Longacres Mile.... needless to say "SIMPLY MAJESTIC" won the race with ease, however, a horse of some reknown in the Pacific Northwest by the unlikely name of "KENT GREEN", finished second, the ironic thing about this whole fable, was that "KENT GREEN" had been running at the lower level claiming ranks @ Longacres and at one time was sold or had been offerd for sale for the price of $1500.00 +/- Mr. Frankle was heard to say after the running of the race "I just don't believe that a $1500.00 horse could run second to "SIMPLY MAJESTIC" if memory serves, the EXACTA paid like $275.00

The other part of this disertation can only be HUH?
mildeu

[Ted Craven]

Thanks mildeu for the link and screenshots. From the previous few comments, so far it would seem the opinion about the addition usefulness of breeding info is at least mixed ...

Let's see.

Ted