Fairgounds Turf races 02/19/2011

[chris]

Uusually I look at the turf routes when I begin handicapping. They can be a source of some frustration and often harbor a malestrom of competing and contradictory possibilities. And other times they're straight forward.

But you have to believe! First, the contradictory possibilities. Fairgrounds 9th race, GR III Turf 4 & up. The 11 wins at 32-1.

COMPLETED: 90480625381651 FG #9 WP 11

This race had a couple of lay-off horses entered and one with excellent form who was moving up in class while attempting to cap his 3rd consecutive Turf win and was well supported at about 5-2, believe he ran second. And of course there were what I consider the usual suspects, though others may have stamped them contenders. In a race like this, one that I find ripe with the potential for a seemingly chaotic outcome, I put on my chaos visor. While most everyone else is looking at form. I expand the view to include any kind of form with recency, and I mean any kind. If it's coupled with back some back class, offered at long odds, and involves shipping in from a great distance, then I'm interested.

Now I go to the computer. Select the best recent lines for the formful entrants, the best lines for long odds horse with recency, who have back class, and are shipping in. Am not going to reproduce the work here, don't believe it's as instructive as some would have you believe. What I do believe in is posting the winning ticket - if you choose, you can blank out the amount - and it tends to lend an air of authenticity to your comments. As an afterthought the 11 horse did come up first in B/L & V/DC from the RDSS platform in the VAL4 mode.

And I did what's called for - I believed, and bet Win and Place.

Good handicapping,
Regards,

Chris

[chris]

And now a straight forward approach.

COMPLETED: 08577514857992 FG #6 Place 5
COMPLETED: 72268171218599 FG #6 Win 2,5

Race #6 was a prelimary allowance on the turf. What I didn't mention in my earlier post is that I let the race and more importantly, my experience, inform how I'll handicapp the race. This one looked straight forward to me. Best of the last three races, same surface and distance if possible. Again RDSS in VAL4, and horses 5 and 2 came out well; 1st and 3rd respectively. The 2 was 7 years old and a little long in the tooth to be contesting a preliminary allowance contest but blinkers were added last race and he did improve.

So I believed, and bet those two horses to win. Though I did go back and place bet the 5 when I peaked at the odds board and saw 22-1.

Guess who won?

His running line of 25.2/5, 51.2/5, 117.1/5 & 140.3/5 with a DRF variant of 20 for a mile race put off most handicappers, however incremental velocity and deceleration had him on top. I point to turf races because the odds don't deviate much from the morning line, and I can make bets in advance and get on with my life.

Regards,
Chris