Is RDSS For Me? - Pace and Cap

PandaMan · 12-07-2009, 02:23 PM

I'm trying to decide between using HTR, HSH or RDSS.

My situation is that I have the next six weeks off from work because of a new "use it or lose it" policy regarding my accrued vacation time. I've never had six weeks off in my life (I'm 56) and it's very likely I never will again. This looks like the perfect opportunity to learn how to use a handicapping software program.

I'm a very frustrated ALL-Ways user. Instead of giving clear instruction on how to best use the AW software, their newsletters "explain" things in a very nebulous manner. Sort of an instructional slight of hand that makes it look as though things are being made clear, but they actually arent. I've found I'm not alone in that assessment. They don't really have a tutorial approach, which is what I prefer. It's just a sort of "read the newsletters" type approach, leaving me to search through dozens of newsletters to find what I need to know. It apparently works for some, but I'm not one of them.

It's important I make the right software decision since this "use it or lose it" vacation time policy is not going to happen again, and if I choose the wrong software I won't have time to ditch it and try something else. I have to be right the first time.

I'm putting posts similar to this on the HTR and HSH forums as well. I want to get an idea from people who use the respective software as to whether my six-week learning timetable is feasible. If not I'd like to know up front so I don't waste anybody's time. I am not a pace handicapper, but a pencil and paper guy using mostly Tom and Jon Worth's TIPS-based methods. My experience has been that I get winners, but not a prices that make it profitable.

So please pardon my longwindedness, but I hope you can see how important it is to me to make the right choice the first time.

Thanks for any input anybody may have.

Panda

sq764 · 12-07-2009, 02:30 PM

Panda, I’ll give you my very quick 2 cents…

HTR = Excellent program, but for me was information overload… Great for spot plays, but too much for me.. Ken Massa a good guy from the little I’ve dealt with him.

HSH = In my opinion, 6 weeks wouldn’t be NEARLY enough time to learn how to use HSH… VERY complicated and to be honest, Dave Schwartz is not the most helpful/accessible guy to deal with..

RDSS – IMO, very easy to use, user friendly, very few decisions to make if you’re a 2 horse win bet player…

For me, when I come home from work I want to think as little as possible 

Rverge · 12-07-2009, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sq764

Panda, I’ll give you my very quick 2 cents…

HTR = Excellent program, but for me was information overload… Great for spot plays, but too much for me.. Ken Massa a good guy from the little I’ve dealt with him.

HSH = In my opinion, 6 weeks wouldn’t be NEARLY enough time to learn how to use HSH… VERY complicated and to be honest, Dave Schwartz is not the most helpful/accessible guy to deal with..

RDSS – IMO, very easy to use, user friendly, very few decisions to make if you’re a 2 horse win bet player…

For me, when I come home from work I want to think as little as possible 

i also agree w/ sq about HTR and RDSS. looked at htr long ago and didn't care for it

Ted Craven · 12-07-2009, 03:56 PM

Hi PandaMan, welcome to the neighbourhood during your study of potential software tools. All 3 of your candidate tools have demonstrable long-term profitable possibilities. It may boil down to the combination of price, your personal learning style (and ability to suspend your previous race analysis skillset in order to grasp the 'culture' of each tool you evaluate without mish-mashing and diluting the professed effectiveness of each) - and the time required to, if not get up to speed and persistently profitable in 6 weeks, at least make a determination of the potential within say another subsequent 3 - 6 months. Also like the old saw 'how long does it take to get from Chicago to New York?' - it depends on your velocity, and what your vehicle is.

Some metrics you should try to answer for yourself, or take into consideration:

1. Can you download and watch all the RDSS tutorial videos: say 5 - 7 hours. Can you begin reading (or read as required a dozen issues of the Sartin Methodology Follow Up journal as relates to paceline selection guidelines, factor interpretation and betting strategies? Do you feel comfortable asking for help, using a (free) screenshot tool to illustrate your progress to elicit advice? Share your progress selecting contenders and wager decisions in public? Defer making actual wagers in favour of paper bets made in real time (largely in the straight WPS pools at first)? If you answer Yes to most of these, or at least - answer 'could be' - then that might be helpful (more velocity on your journey).

2. Though RDSS is the current version of a Methodology with a quarter century history, it is not as mature software as either HTR or HSH - nor is it quite 'finished', from the point of view of where I (as author) want it to be as a base platform for the next number of years. (That 'finished' state, or next more mature stage, should arrive within 2 or 3 more months). As discussed in another thread, another recent evaluator found that RDSS currently lacked automated paceline selection tools, integrated model keeping, among other (in his opinion) missing tools - thus more manual effort is currently required than he was expecting. Plus there are a few irritating memory constraint issues, but nothing that cannot easily be worked around. You need to currently use a screen capture tool to make printouts. This does not bother many people - but some people it does.

3. The Sartin Methodology professes that the horse runs the race, and thus trainer and jockey stats and breeding play a very minor (if any) role. Trainer intent is always important, but often redundant to the picture painted by the figures of the horse itself. We don't merely seek the top rated horse - the 2nd or 3rd ranked horse is often 'good enough' and offered at longer odds to prevail when the favourite loses its normal 33% share of races. 2 horse betting is another prime tenet, though not etched in stone. Short-term, recent factor models are better than long-term, volume collections (i.e. for spot-plays that might for example hit 10 times in each 100 events).

If there are any other caveats anyone else wants to add about learning curve or idiosyncracies (or stellar points!) - please state them without reserve from your own experience. I'd rather someone get the conservative point of view than merely the hype or party-line. The next 6 weeks do include the Holiday season, when some folks may be less available to help than otherwise, but we don't always get to choose our opportunities!

PandaMan, ask away - anything at all. You can try the 1 week of race cards in the Demo Database without charge, but I suspect you will want to at least follow along with discussion of current races, so as to ask advice, challenge, make decisions with the toteboard in real-time (i.e. record wager decisions against RDSS' live tote odds at 2 or 1 mintues to post, not off the final Result Chart odds). $30/month for 20 cards or $2.00 per card is the ante for current races. The software is free to evaluate for your 6 weeks. Full Getting Started blurb is here: http://www.sartinmethodology.com/how_to_obtain_rdss

best regards,

Ted

PandaMan · 12-07-2009, 07:48 PM

Hello Ted, and thanks so very much for such a warm welcome and detailed answer.

Yes, I certainly can download and watch 5 to 7 hours of videos. I can also read a dozen or however many issues of the Follow-Up journal necessary to learn this. I have no problem asking for help, and I'm able to take screenshots to illustrate whatever point I'm trying to make or question I'm trying to answer. I have no problem with public posting of any selections or wagers I may make while "in training". I'm quite amenable to making paper bets during my baby-step phase.

I had read about your next iteration of HTR and I'm pretty excited about that. What I can offer is a solid commitment to learn and do whatever work is required of me. I truly do appreciate your candor and the time you took to address my very first post here.

I've been reading a few posts here, and not to put a damper on anything, but I was a bit discouraged by a post from another thread. I would like to say that this is not the complete post, just the part that really got my attenton:

Quote:

Originally Posted by BJennet

...And Doc himself perhaps misled clients into believing that this was a possibility, although a couple of the more talented practioners of the Methodology, such as Dick Schmidt and Tom Brohamer, played professionally for a time. But the very important point you bring up, and which their careers underline, is that it's really impossible to think about making a living from the game betting less than $200 a race, which was their average bet size - and remember, this was the '80s.

That's a bit discouraging and I hope its nothing I wouldn't be able to overcome.

Thanks again for the warm welcome and great response to my intitial post, Ted.

Ted Craven · 12-08-2009, 12:21 PM

Panda,

Quote:

You're correct in your assessment that most of the people who post here are social and recreational players rather than professionals, and I think that's always been the case with the Methodology. I think that few have career aspirations. And Doc himself perhaps misled clients...

This was BJennet's lead up comments to the quoted comment troubling you. So far, you haven't stated whether you have aspirations of professional play (i.e. sufficient ongoing cash-flow to be a primary income source).

For the record, I have no evidence that Doc himself lead people to naively think they could quit their day jobs and make gads of money betting horses. He would say in writing that folks could supplement their income, make it a profitable hobby, but it goes without saying that individuals themselves would naturally interpret his life's work to enable consistent profitable betting, as inviting the possibility of making at least a regular middle-class level of income, or better. In Follow Ups and seminars, he certainly did not shy away from laying out the cold hard realities of what would have to happen to make good money: hit-rate, average mutuel, bet size, work ethic, one's psychological limitations.

In 1994, at a seminar in Baltimore, while sitting with my wife and with Tom Ainslie (Dick Carter), I asked Howard in an open session if one could expect to make a decent professional living betting horses. He equivocated. He said something like 'professional compared to what? - If you're a doctor or a lawyer, consider not quitting your day job.) Dick asked me what I did for a living and I replied 'software developer'. He said something like 'keep your day job and turn it to horse-racing on the side'. (And my wife and I stayed in touch with Dick for years after that.)

Last year, on Doc's final birthday, he and I talked for a long while and he mentioned that he still felt that someone with a mature grasp of the Methodology, but focusing on the BL/BL and a 'wagercapping' approach, and demanding value could make 'millions'. I took 'millions' to mean 'a large sum', and the context of that discussion led me to believe that the comment was not merely the fading hope of an old man, but of one who knew well the potential of good tools married to proper mental approach and an understanding of the logistics of betting.

I doubt I could make 'a large sum' annually betting only into WPS pools, and certainly not if a fair percentage of those bets occurred at small handle tracks (PEN, MNR, FL, FE, etc). But establishing a steady hit rate and decent average mutuel and even modest ROI Win/Place betting - then becomes the foundation for exacta betting and frequently larger mutuel pools, then Double and Pick 3 betting (serial Win betting) with larger pools again. And exacta betting becomes the foundation for trifecta betting (and .10 Suprefectas), Etc, etc. Also, some very formful tracks have large enough pools (e.g. Woodbine) to be betting decent sums in any pool to not knock down your own odds.

Perhaps 10-15% ROI Win betting is readily achievable by most who have the time and mental preparedness using RDSS. But I suggest that better ROI than that is available on aggregate, on going, by gradually adding in exotic pools. A 'big hit' every now and then provides padding, and we've seen that 'big hits' are well within our grasp. If you build a $500 bankroll to $5000 over several months, sticking to say 2% of total bankroll (or more depending on your tracking of your edge, or bet sizing protocol: fractional Kelly, HMI, etc) 2% (or whatever) soon starts to look like real money and you'll have to start carefully distributing your bet units among tracks and mutuel pools that can handle it. Your personal requirements may permit you to level off well before that hypothetical level. Again, depends on your goals.

In reality, your sense of caution, your degree of enthusiasm and tolerance for failure and understanding and acceptance of 'stochastic' events (here, random distribution of bettable events in the short term) will govern your success and enjoyment, regardless of whatever methodology or software tools you choose.

I don't accept that Doc purposely sought to mislead people to think they could make lots of money without lots of effort and preparedness, and by the way, I don't think that was necessarily what BJennet was suggesting in his post - merely that one had to be clear-eyed about the requirements and rigours, both logistical and psychological.

Ted

GoSimon · 12-08-2009, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Perhaps 10-15% ROI Win betting is readily achievable by most who have the time and mental preparedness using RDSS. But I suggest that better ROI than that is available on aggregate, on going, by gradually adding in exotic pools. A 'big hit' every now and then provides padding, and we've seen that 'big hits' are well within our grasp. If you build a $500 bankroll to $5000 over several months, sticking to say 2% of total bankroll (or more depending on your tracking of your edge, or bet sizing protocol: fractional Kelly, HMI, etc) 2% (or whatever) soon starts to look like real money and you'll have to start carefully distributing your bet units among tracks and mutuel pools that can handle it. Your personal requirements may permit you to level off well before that hypothetical level. Again, depends on your goals.

Here is my analysis of how much profit you can make under different conditions.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
• Win ROI Target: 10 %

• Wager Amount: $10 USD/race
• 200 races/month = $2 000 USD/month
• ROI of 10 % -> Profit of $200 USD/month

• Wager Amount: $20 USD/race
• 200 races/month = $4 000 USD/month
• ROI of 10 % -> Profit of $400 USD/month

• Wager Amount: $40 USD/race
• 200 races/month = $8 000 USD/month
• ROI of 10 % -> Profit of $800 USD/month
------------------------------------------------------------------------
• Win ROI Target: 20 %

• Wager Amount: $10 USD/race
• 400 races/month = $4 000 USD/month
• ROI of 20 % -> Profit of $800 USD/month

• Wager Amount: $20 USD/race
• 400 races/month = $8 000 USD/month
• ROI of 20 % -> Profit of $1 600 USD/month

• Wager Amount: $40 USD/race
• 400 races/month = $16 000 USD/month
• ROI of 20 % -> Profit of $3 200 USD/month
------------------------------------------------------------------------

sq764 · 12-09-2009, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoSimon

Here is my analysis of how much profit you can make under different conditions.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
• Win ROI Target: 10 %

• Wager Amount: $10 USD/race
• 200 races/month = $2 000 USD/month
• ROI of 10 % -> Profit of $200 USD/month

• Wager Amount: $20 USD/race
• 200 races/month = $4 000 USD/month
• ROI of 10 % -> Profit of $400 USD/month

• Wager Amount: $40 USD/race
• 200 races/month = $8 000 USD/month
• ROI of 10 % -> Profit of $800 USD/month
------------------------------------------------------------------------
• Win ROI Target: 20 %

• Wager Amount: $10 USD/race
• 400 races/month = $4 000 USD/month
• ROI of 20 % -> Profit of $800 USD/month

• Wager Amount: $20 USD/race
• 400 races/month = $8 000 USD/month
• ROI of 20 % -> Profit of $1 600 USD/month

• Wager Amount: $40 USD/race
• 400 races/month = $16 000 USD/month
• ROI of 20 % -> Profit of $3 200 USD/month
------------------------------------------------------------------------

then factor in any rebate ADW, even if its a flat 5%, your $10 per race, 200 race example will add another $100 profit by rebate per month.

So Cal Al · 12-09-2009, 02:56 PM

Panda
Ted has very eloquently stated what many Sartin methodology users believe. I would never quit my "day job", but using RDSS enables me to supplement my income, satiate my gambling apetite, and provides a certain entertainment level to me. My mental and emotional structure would not allow me to be a "professioanl" because I have to admit to a "comfort level" when wagering. I have been using the methodology since the mid
80s, and, for me, my ability to find winners in parlay races ( e.g. Pick3, Pick4) is my personal preference. However, like in anything else practice, practice, and practice (pace line selection, etc.) is the key. The effort will be rewarded, but it is.....effort. There will be a race result now and then that defies "logic",but just get back up on the horse that threw you (i.e trust in the methodology and RDSS).
Al

PandaMan · 12-09-2009, 04:25 PM

I'd really like to thank everybody who responded to my thread. I appreciate all your input a great deal.

However, I've decided to go with HTR as my software of choice. That's in no way pronouncing any kind of judgment on RDSS. It's a fine and widely regarded program and I certainly do recognize it as such.

All the input I got from posts and PMs led me to believe that HTR was the better choice for me at this time.

Thanks again very much to all.

12-07-2009, 02:23 PM	#1
PandaMan AlwNW1X Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 4	Is RDSS For Me? I'm trying to decide between using HTR, HSH or RDSS. My situation is that I have the next six weeks off from work because of a new "use it or lose it" policy regarding my accrued vacation time. I've never had six weeks off in my life (I'm 56) and it's very likely I never will again. This looks like the perfect opportunity to learn how to use a handicapping software program. I'm a very frustrated ALL-Ways user. Instead of giving clear instruction on how to best use the AW software, their newsletters "explain" things in a very nebulous manner. Sort of an instructional slight of hand that makes it look as though things are being made clear, but they actually arent. I've found I'm not alone in that assessment. They don't really have a tutorial approach, which is what I prefer. It's just a sort of "read the newsletters" type approach, leaving me to search through dozens of newsletters to find what I need to know. It apparently works for some, but I'm not one of them. It's important I make the right software decision since this "use it or lose it" vacation time policy is not going to happen again, and if I choose the wrong software I won't have time to ditch it and try something else. I have to be right the first time. I'm putting posts similar to this on the HTR and HSH forums as well. I want to get an idea from people who use the respective software as to whether my six-week learning timetable is feasible. If not I'd like to know up front so I don't waste anybody's time. I am not a pace handicapper, but a pencil and paper guy using mostly Tom and Jon Worth's TIPS-based methods. My experience has been that I get winners, but not a prices that make it profitable. So please pardon my longwindedness, but I hope you can see how important it is to me to make the right choice the first time. Thanks for any input anybody may have. Panda

12-07-2009, 03:56 PM	#4
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	Hi PandaMan, welcome to the neighbourhood during your study of potential software tools. All 3 of your candidate tools have demonstrable long-term profitable possibilities. It may boil down to the combination of price, your personal learning style (and ability to suspend your previous race analysis skillset in order to grasp the 'culture' of each tool you evaluate without mish-mashing and diluting the professed effectiveness of each) - and the time required to, if not get up to speed and persistently profitable in 6 weeks, at least make a determination of the potential within say another subsequent 3 - 6 months. Also like the old saw 'how long does it take to get from Chicago to New York?' - it depends on your velocity, and what your vehicle is. Some metrics you should try to answer for yourself, or take into consideration: 1. Can you download and watch all the RDSS tutorial videos: say 5 - 7 hours. Can you begin reading (or read as required a dozen issues of the Sartin Methodology Follow Up journal as relates to paceline selection guidelines, factor interpretation and betting strategies? Do you feel comfortable asking for help, using a (free) screenshot tool to illustrate your progress to elicit advice? Share your progress selecting contenders and wager decisions in public? Defer making actual wagers in favour of paper bets made in real time (largely in the straight WPS pools at first)? If you answer Yes to most of these, or at least - answer 'could be' - then that might be helpful (more velocity on your journey). 2. Though RDSS is the current version of a Methodology with a quarter century history, it is not as mature software as either HTR or HSH - nor is it quite 'finished', from the point of view of where I (as author) want it to be as a base platform for the next number of years. (That 'finished' state, or next more mature stage, should arrive within 2 or 3 more months). As discussed in another thread, another recent evaluator found that RDSS currently lacked automated paceline selection tools, integrated model keeping, among other (in his opinion) missing tools - thus more manual effort is currently required than he was expecting. Plus there are a few irritating memory constraint issues, but nothing that cannot easily be worked around. You need to currently use a screen capture tool to make printouts. This does not bother many people - but some people it does. 3. The Sartin Methodology professes that the horse runs the race, and thus trainer and jockey stats and breeding play a very minor (if any) role. Trainer intent is always important, but often redundant to the picture painted by the figures of the horse itself. We don't merely seek the top rated horse - the 2nd or 3rd ranked horse is often 'good enough' and offered at longer odds to prevail when the favourite loses its normal 33% share of races. 2 horse betting is another prime tenet, though not etched in stone. Short-term, recent factor models are better than long-term, volume collections (i.e. for spot-plays that might for example hit 10 times in each 100 events). If there are any other caveats anyone else wants to add about learning curve or idiosyncracies (or stellar points!) - please state them without reserve from your own experience. I'd rather someone get the conservative point of view than merely the hype or party-line. The next 6 weeks do include the Holiday season, when some folks may be less available to help than otherwise, but we don't always get to choose our opportunities! PandaMan, ask away - anything at all. You can try the 1 week of race cards in the Demo Database without charge, but I suspect you will want to at least follow along with discussion of current races, so as to ask advice, challenge, make decisions with the toteboard in real-time (i.e. record wager decisions against RDSS' live tote odds at 2 or 1 mintues to post, not off the final Result Chart odds). $30/month for 20 cards or $2.00 per card is the ante for current races. The software is free to evaluate for your 6 weeks. Full Getting Started blurb is here: http://www.sartinmethodology.com/how_to_obtain_rdss best regards, Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 12-07-2009 at 03:59 PM.

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12-07-2009, 02:30 PM	#2
sq764 AlwNW3X Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 45	Panda, I’ll give you my very quick 2 cents… HTR = Excellent program, but for me was information overload… Great for spot plays, but too much for me.. Ken Massa a good guy from the little I’ve dealt with him. HSH = In my opinion, 6 weeks wouldn’t be NEARLY enough time to learn how to use HSH… VERY complicated and to be honest, Dave Schwartz is not the most helpful/accessible guy to deal with.. RDSS – IMO, very easy to use, user friendly, very few decisions to make if you’re a 2 horse win bet player… For me, when I come home from work I want to think as little as possible 

12-09-2009, 02:56 PM	#9
So Cal Al So Cal Al Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: San Diego/ La Quinta Posts: 214	Panda Ted has very eloquently stated what many Sartin methodology users believe. I would never quit my "day job", but using RDSS enables me to supplement my income, satiate my gambling apetite, and provides a certain entertainment level to me. My mental and emotional structure would not allow me to be a "professioanl" because I have to admit to a "comfort level" when wagering. I have been using the methodology since the mid 80s, and, for me, my ability to find winners in parlay races ( e.g. Pick3, Pick4) is my personal preference. However, like in anything else practice, practice, and practice (pace line selection, etc.) is the key. The effort will be rewarded, but it is.....effort. There will be a race result now and then that defies "logic",but just get back up on the horse that threw you (i.e trust in the methodology and RDSS). Al

12-09-2009, 04:25 PM	#10
PandaMan AlwNW1X Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 4	I'd really like to thank everybody who responded to my thread. I appreciate all your input a great deal. However, I've decided to go with HTR as my software of choice. That's in no way pronouncing any kind of judgment on RDSS. It's a fine and widely regarded program and I certainly do recognize it as such. All the input I got from posts and PMs led me to believe that HTR was the better choice for me at this time. Thanks again very much to all.