"The Hat's" Power Lines

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by fasthorses

Rich, I'd like to add a very big "THANK YOU" to the chorus. This has been an eye opening thread. Your time, "The Hats'" time, and both of your insights are of great value and great interest. Solving these kinds of puzzles has always been one of the great allures of handicapping for me. (Okay, so the money ain't bad either. )

And to Bill, thanks for providing the vehicle and all your efforts to keep this site humming. (P.S. I spent a lot of time in Mount Freedom as kid when it was mostly cow pastures and woods. No, it wasn't during the 1800's!!)

thanx "FH".

This thread is gonna show some other cool stuff when Jim chimes in.

I don't want to give it all away but he will show how to match power line vs. power line by explaining and showing the "Power Move".

The first time Jim showed me this I had absolutely NO idea what the heck was going on. I remember telling him "what? I have no clue what you just did Jim".

Well long story short is that I "got it" and now he will show it to all of you! It is very VERY cool!

You will hit more "Other than early" races than you ever did before once you learn about the "Power Move".

Richie

[mufasa]

Rich:

I know there is more advanced instructions to come on the Match Up methodology (thank you) but based on what you have said already I though I ask the following question. As to your statement “can NOT get "on top" of fractions he previously could” I am thinking this is more for early type runners (early-E or early pressers-EP). That is a presser-P or sustained presser-PS or even a closer-S would not necessarily be getting on top of a previously fast ½-mile times that it ran against but instead would have to show (I guess) that it can still run against the faster half mile. Perhaps the Power Move that you have said is coming will clear this up for me or maybe I am just trying to fit this methodology [incorrectly] into my previously learned and practiced way of thinking/handicapping. For example when I incorrectly used the idea of going off form in a previous post as a possibility for a horse not being able to recently ‘get on top of fractions he previously could,” instead of just going with the idea that the horse has gotten slower.

Thanks,

Robert

[admin]

[qoute]
And to Bill, thanks for providing the vehicle and all your efforts to keep this site humming. (P.S. I spent a lot of time in Mount Freedom as kid when it was mostly cow pastures and woods. No, it wasn't during the 1800's!!) [/quote]

Thank you Fasthorses
I am very proud of everyone here. They make the site work
We are all just good friends hanging out and talking racing and sharing some ideas

Yes I know Mount Freedom I travel up there once in awhile. Not too much industry
Mostly its still pretty much woods and VERY large homes on old farm land

welcome to pace and cap
GS
Bill

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by mufasa

Rich:

I know there is more advanced instructions to come on the Match Up methodology (thank you) but based on what you have said already I though I ask the following question. As to your statement “can NOT get "on top" of fractions he previously could” I am thinking this is more for early type runners (early-E or early pressers-EP). That is a presser-P or sustained presser-PS or even a closer-S would not necessarily be getting on top of a previously fast ½-mile times that it ran against but instead would have to show (I guess) that it can still run against the faster half mile. Perhaps the Power Move that you have said is coming will clear this up for me or maybe I am just trying to fit this methodology [incorrectly] into my previously learned and practiced way of thinking/handicapping. For example when I incorrectly used the idea of going off form in a previous post as a possibility for a horse not being able to recently ‘get on top of fractions he previously could,” instead of just going with the idea that the horse has gotten slower.

Thanks,

Robert

Sorry Rich, what was I thinking. I was looking at your examples over at the Handicapping Discussion section, specifically the Evangeline post, and looking again on what you have offered here on this post. I see that I am just confusing myself with the ESP criteria or trying to redefine a perfectly good and straightforward statement. “The Hats” recommendation “can NOT get "on top" of fractions he previously could” does not need redefinition from me. I am for my own education trying to say the same thing in a different way but managed to muddy it all up with the ESP conditions. If an off the pace horse (or any type runner) shows in recent racing that it can not “get on top of fractions he previously could” also means that it could not according to its recent racing show ability to run competitively against the previously established fast pace.

Robert

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mufasa

“The Hats” recommendation “can NOT get "on top" of fractions he previously could” does not need redefinition from me. I am for my own education trying to say the same thing in a different way but managed to muddy it all up with the ESP conditions.
Robert

I thought you had the thing down "Mu" and were describing it a bit different way. I was afraid to say something that might mess you up.

You "got this" man!

Good
Richie

[THE HAT]

Power Line And Power Moves

Rich has explained the meaning of "Power Lines" and have marked them for all of the horses in the 11th at Delaware. It just happens that the last line is the is the "power line" for most of the horses in today’s Mile and One Quarter race, but the "power line" may be anywhere in their past performance.

I used the "Power Lines" on all the horse to match them in today’s race and very quickly see that the One, Six and Seven are Early, because they only win on or near the lead. The race will run "other than early." The Nine was scratched and I eliminate the Early horses, but I use the One horse’s "Power Line" for today’s pace.

The One, Two, Four and Nine are from the same Tandem. The four horse is ahead of the Two throughout most of the race, so I eliminate the Two. I eliminate the Three and Eight, because the are slower than today’s pace. This Leaves me with the Four and Five. The "Power Lne" for the Five is from a one turn mile, which is hard for me to use. The One horse’s pace of 110.4 is equal to the 110.4 on the Five and should be ahead of him.

"Power Moves" are moves that horses make during the race that show the can over take other horse. Many horses shows more than " power move" during a race. (Example 9-4-1-1.) The Four horse moves from fourth to second position and gains lengths. Although, I like better "Power Moves" the race is longer today and the Four horse should win the race and reverse the Tandem.

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by THE HAT

Power Line And Power Moves

"Power Moves" are moves that horses make during the race that show the can over take other horse. Many horses shows more than " power move" during a race. (Example 9-4-1-1.) The Four horse moves from fourth to second position and gains lengths. Although, I like better "Power Moves" the race is longer today and the Four horse should win the race and reverse the Tandem.

Jim, I'm confused.

"The Four horse moves from fourth to second position and gains lengths."

You have the race down to two horses. You are now comparing their "power moves." Doesn't the five have a better power move? Isn't the five going from 3rd to 1st and gaining even more lengths?

[mufasa]

Rich/Jim:

In an honest effort to try and understand the final analysis and win selection for the race in question and as it relates to the “power move” I would like to offer you my thinking and please tell me if and where I am wrong.

I can not see directly from the power/pace lines chosen how the 4 horse is better then the 5 horse outright. But, as to the Match Up, if the 5 horse goes after the race pace horse (#1) as he should by the half mile of the race (being that he is an early presser) he should be negatively affecting his ability to finish. That is the #1 pace horse is faster to the ½-mile then the #5 horse and the later will be using himself up trying to catch him. In the mean time the #4 horse whom has shown ability to come off the pace while making a power move against today’s projected half mile of 110.4 will just blow right by the #5 horse who would probably still have an in the money finish.

Even if I am so lucky to be somewhat right as to my above thinking on this subject I have no confidence that I could think so clearly cold.

Jim mentioned as he explained the “Power Move” for the #4 horse that he usually likes better “power moves” but since the horse was stretching out in today’s race that he should win. If possible can we have an example of a preferred type of “Power Move?” The preferred type of power move can then be used as a model of what to look for while also providing some guidance in which way it can best be shaded to accept something like the # 4 horse had.

Thanks to you and “The Hat” for all that has been graciously offered already,

Robert

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mufasa

I can not see directly from the power/pace lines chosen how the 4 horse is better then the 5 horse outright. But, as to the Match Up, if the 5 horse goes after the race pace horse (#1) as he should by the half mile of the race (being that he is an early presser) he should be negatively affecting his ability to finish. That is the #1 pace horse is faster to the ½-mile then the #5 horse and the later will be using himself up trying to catch him. In the mean time the #4 horse whom has shown ability to come off the pace while making a power move against today’s projected half mile of 110.4 will just blow right by the #5 horse who would probably still have an in the money finish.

Even if I am so lucky to be somewhat right as to my above thinking on this subject I have no confidence that I could think so clearly cold.

Robert

WHY?
You just described basically how Jim himself did the race with me before it ran that day "Mu".

He saw the 1:10.4 for the 1 turn mile on the 5 and told me quickly the 1 is a faster horse running the 1:10.4 around 2 turns.

You just said the same thing.

This thread is not done yet. We need to look at more Power Lines and Power Moves ok?

PATTERN RECOGNITION. That is Jim Bradshaw's Matchup.

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by RichieP

He saw the 1:10.4 for the 1 turn mile on the 5 and told me quickly the 1 is a faster horse running the 1:10.4 around 2 turns.

THAT'S the MatchUp. The essence and heart of MatchUp flavor. Not " immediately jumping" into par charts , par times, or adjustments when "this" can be done. Once a level of MatchUp proficiency is achieved, "little things" like this and stuff in the chapter titled "The MatchUp Guys" can polish our performance. Brilliant observations and methods of Mr. Bradshaw. Sometimes stuff can be so efficient ,simple and straight forward, our brain "conditionally" complicates it. We need to find drills and methods so the above quote is natural , MatchUp instinct. Tons of practice. VoodooFan