Saturday CD R9 - Pace and Cap

porkchop · 05-06-2011, 08:09 AM

Last year on Derby day in R9 I had singled out an early horse who looked like he couldn't be beat. That horse was #9 Friesen Fire, he went off around 9-1 or so and really helped me nail the Pick 3 for races 9-10-11. The $2 P3 was a $5700 pay off with him and Super Saver.

I was hoping for something like that in this years pick 3 also, and I might have found it.

The only problem is it looks like horse #9 in race 9 again so I hope I'm not looking too hard into this trying to recreate a situation.

I am at work so I can't post screens, nor do I have access to RDSS, but it is something for you guys to look at.

Horse 9 had gone wire to wire in his last two races, at this distance, both with first fraction times of 22.0

Another horse had one at 22.2, and one or two others had times of 22.4.

So what do you think? Does it look like #9 has a shot, or do you think this race will go OTE?

Bill V. · 05-06-2011, 09:05 AM

Here are the runners Porkchop and Matchers
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Bill V. · 05-06-2011, 09:06 AM

4 5 6

Bill V. · 05-06-2011, 09:11 AM

7 8 9

Bill V. · 05-06-2011, 09:13 AM

10 11 12

porkchop · 05-06-2011, 11:37 AM

Thanks for posting those Bill

porkchop · 05-07-2011, 10:04 AM

Went back and looked at my RDSS files from last years Derby Day, and as it turns out it wasn't Friesen Fire who was the 9th horse in the 9th race...it was Atta Boy Roy.

Either way, I have all but talked myself out of this horse today, after further review.

Still haven't finished looking over the race, so we shall see how it goes.

Bill V. · 05-07-2011, 10:52 AM

Hi I see the 9 and 11 at 50/1 as Early
I see the 2 a being able to sit just behind them and overtaking them
My to 4 are
2 3 4 5

win bets 2 and 4

Bill V.

PeteC · 05-07-2011, 11:17 AM

My view is that it will be hard for the 9 to hang on. I will take the 4 and 6 to win.

porkchop · 05-07-2011, 11:46 AM

I have never been much for matching OTE races, however, when I run the race through RDSS, I get 2 3 5 as my top 3.

Will look further at the 4 and the 6. Thank you, gentlemen.

05-06-2011, 08:09 AM	#1
porkchop AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 19	Saturday CD R9 Last year on Derby day in R9 I had singled out an early horse who looked like he couldn't be beat. That horse was #9 Friesen Fire, he went off around 9-1 or so and really helped me nail the Pick 3 for races 9-10-11. The $2 P3 was a $5700 pay off with him and Super Saver. I was hoping for something like that in this years pick 3 also, and I might have found it. The only problem is it looks like horse #9 in race 9 again so I hope I'm not looking too hard into this trying to recreate a situation. I am at work so I can't post screens, nor do I have access to RDSS, but it is something for you guys to look at. Horse 9 had gone wire to wire in his last two races, at this distance, both with first fraction times of 22.0 Another horse had one at 22.2, and one or two others had times of 22.4. So what do you think? Does it look like #9 has a shot, or do you think this race will go OTE?

05-06-2011, 09:05 AM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	pp's Here are the runners Porkchop and Matchers Last edited by Bill V.; 05-06-2011 at 09:09 AM.

05-06-2011, 09:06 AM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	runners 4 5 6

05-06-2011, 09:11 AM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	runners 7 8 9

05-06-2011, 09:13 AM	#5
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Runners 10 11 12

05-06-2011, 11:37 AM	#6
porkchop AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 19	Thanks for posting those Bill

05-07-2011, 10:04 AM	#7
porkchop AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 19	Went back and looked at my RDSS files from last years Derby Day, and as it turns out it wasn't Friesen Fire who was the 9th horse in the 9th race...it was Atta Boy Roy. Either way, I have all but talked myself out of this horse today, after further review. Still haven't finished looking over the race, so we shall see how it goes.

05-07-2011, 10:52 AM	#8
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Race nine Hi I see the 9 and 11 at 50/1 as Early I see the 2 a being able to sit just behind them and overtaking them My to 4 are 2 3 4 5 win bets 2 and 4 Bill V.

05-07-2011, 11:17 AM	#9
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	My view is that it will be hard for the 9 to hang on. I will take the 4 and 6 to win.

05-07-2011, 11:46 AM	#10
porkchop AlwNW1X Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 19	I have never been much for matching OTE races, however, when I run the race through RDSS, I get 2 3 5 as my top 3. Will look further at the 4 and the 6. Thank you, gentlemen.

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