Match Tampa Race 10 - Pace and Cap

Bill V. · 03-29-2011, 06:53 PM

Here is race 10 for Weds 3/30/11

11 horses 6.5 furlongs post time is about 5:00 pm est

look forward to your match up looks at this race

Here are the APV and Class Rating numbers

APV CLASS
H1 173.5 1.14
H2 137.4 1.24
H3 61.1 0.49
H4 96.9 0.78
H5 145.8 1.48
H6 133.6 1.24
H7 95.7 1.18
H8 136.2 1.35
H9 185.9 1.97
H10 149.1 2.07
H11 100.7 1.14

The conditions and the field

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Bill V. · 03-29-2011, 06:55 PM

2 3 4

Bill V. · 03-29-2011, 06:58 PM

5 6 7

Bill V. · 03-29-2011, 07:03 PM

8 and 9

Bill V. · 03-29-2011, 07:05 PM

10 and 11

alydar_ David · 03-30-2011, 01:37 AM

Bill, I did this race with an old program we haven't seen for a while, Syn4.

Syn4 sees seven "E" horses, two "S/P" types, one "E/P" and one "S" horse.

I'm not sure how Syn4 comes up with its running styles. For example, I wouldn't call #8 Saucy's Image an S/P runner. To my eye he's more of an E/EP type. But then again I'm looking at the horse's past performances and not just one paceline. Furthermore, I think Syn4 may be evaluating the running style relative to the other horses in the race. But I might be off on that.

Any way you slice it #7 Powerstown is the horse they're going to have to catch.

Looks like he and #11 Cornetto will be slugging it out at the second call.

Notice three horses have Medium Energy in the 70's. That's generally a no-no, but perhaps that's kosher for 6F at TAM. I've been concentrating on Gulfstream Park on a daily basis. So, I don't know what you can get away with at Tampa.

Still, with all those "E" horses I'd venture the race will run other than early. #9 Morador Llers is my top pick. My second horse is the front running #7 Powerstown, the best of the early runners. I wouldn't go too crazy betting. After all, they are only $5,000 claimers.

Capcondo · 03-30-2011, 02:21 AM

I've got the 3, 7, and 11 early with the 8 and 10 E/P. I'm going to use the last line on the 7 for the pace; 22.5 45.2 1:10.6 1:17.0 (adding 6 2/5 for the 6.5 distance). The 3 is going to make the 7 run early. I don't like an of the E or E/P horses.

This looks like a OTE race at an OTE distance. This leaves me with the 2, 5, and 9.

2: P Not going to get close enough to press. When he runs Sustained, he gets beat. Out

5: Ran evenly last time. Has run against some fast paces.
9: I'm going to make this the FPLR horse. He breaks well. If I practice some voo-doo and put the positions from the second back into the last race, he's my choice.

I'll go with the 9.

Tim

Bill V. · 03-30-2011, 04:00 AM

One route horse # 6
Can it keep up with all the early/EP sprinters ?
and be in position to win ?

Tandems Mar.13 7.0 at Tampa Powerson/Golf pact/Cornetto
22.5 45.3 124,5
Dec 29 6.0 at Tampa GentJohn/Cornetto
23.1 46.6 112.0

Running styles
H1 Bo Diddly E/P
H2 Golf Pro S/P
H3 Nana Appeal E/P
H4 Ziper Sus
H5 Woodland SUS
H6 Silver Tux Router SUS
H7 Powerstown E/P 22.7
H8 Saucy's Image E/P

H9 Morador Liers S/P
H10 GentelmanJohn EARLY 23
H11 Cornetto E/P 22.5

FPLR
Horse 7 Powertown 22.5 45.3 110.6 124.5 / 118.1

projected pace 22.3 45.3 110.6 118.1

I see the race OTE with the 5 and 9 as win bets

gs
Bill V.
Ronald McNair Way
Titusville, FL

mikesal57 · 03-30-2011, 08:13 AM

I'll go with the 5 & 2

PeteC · 03-30-2011, 12:14 PM

twinspires shows #5 is scratched

03-29-2011, 06:55 PM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	horse 2 3 4

03-29-2011, 06:58 PM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	horse 5 6 7

03-29-2011, 07:03 PM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	horse 8 and 9

03-30-2011, 01:37 AM	#6
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Bill, I did this race with an old program we haven't seen for a while, Syn4. Syn4 sees seven "E" horses, two "S/P" types, one "E/P" and one "S" horse. I'm not sure how Syn4 comes up with its running styles. For example, I wouldn't call #8 Saucy's Image an S/P runner. To my eye he's more of an E/EP type. But then again I'm looking at the horse's past performances and not just one paceline. Furthermore, I think Syn4 may be evaluating the running style relative to the other horses in the race. But I might be off on that. Any way you slice it #7 Powerstown is the horse they're going to have to catch. Looks like he and #11 Cornetto will be slugging it out at the second call. Notice three horses have Medium Energy in the 70's. That's generally a no-no, but perhaps that's kosher for 6F at TAM. I've been concentrating on Gulfstream Park on a daily basis. So, I don't know what you can get away with at Tampa. Still, with all those "E" horses I'd venture the race will run other than early. #9 Morador Llers is my top pick. My second horse is the front running #7 Powerstown, the best of the early runners. I wouldn't go too crazy betting. After all, they are only $5,000 claimers. Attached Images

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03-29-2011, 06:53 PM	#1
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Match Tampa Race 10 Here is race 10 for Weds 3/30/11 11 horses 6.5 furlongs post time is about 5:00 pm est look forward to your match up looks at this race Here are the APV and Class Rating numbers APV CLASS H1 173.5 1.14 H2 137.4 1.24 H3 61.1 0.49 H4 96.9 0.78 H5 145.8 1.48 H6 133.6 1.24 H7 95.7 1.18 H8 136.2 1.35 H9 185.9 1.97 H10 149.1 2.07 H11 100.7 1.14 The conditions and the field

03-29-2011, 07:05 PM	#5
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	horses 10 and 11

03-30-2011, 02:21 AM	#7
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	I've got the 3, 7, and 11 early with the 8 and 10 E/P. I'm going to use the last line on the 7 for the pace; 22.5 45.2 1:10.6 1:17.0 (adding 6 2/5 for the 6.5 distance). The 3 is going to make the 7 run early. I don't like an of the E or E/P horses. This looks like a OTE race at an OTE distance. This leaves me with the 2, 5, and 9. 2: P Not going to get close enough to press. When he runs Sustained, he gets beat. Out 5: Ran evenly last time. Has run against some fast paces. 9: I'm going to make this the FPLR horse. He breaks well. If I practice some voo-doo and put the positions from the second back into the last race, he's my choice. I'll go with the 9. Tim

03-30-2011, 04:00 AM	#8
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Route to Srint One route horse # 6 Can it keep up with all the early/EP sprinters ? and be in position to win ? Tandems Mar.13 7.0 at Tampa Powerson/Golf pact/Cornetto 22.5 45.3 124,5 Dec 29 6.0 at Tampa GentJohn/Cornetto 23.1 46.6 112.0 Running styles H1 Bo Diddly E/P H2 Golf Pro S/P H3 Nana Appeal E/P H4 Ziper Sus H5 Woodland SUS H6 Silver Tux Router SUS H7 Powerstown E/P 22.7 H8 Saucy's Image E/P H9 Morador Liers S/P H10 GentelmanJohn EARLY 23 H11 Cornetto E/P 22.5 FPLR Horse 7 Powertown 22.5 45.3 110.6 124.5 / 118.1 projected pace 22.3 45.3 110.6 118.1 I see the race OTE with the 5 and 9 as win bets gs Bill V. Ronald McNair Way Titusville, FL

03-30-2011, 08:13 AM	#9
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	I'll go with the 5 & 2 __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

03-30-2011, 12:14 PM	#10
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	twinspires shows #5 is scratched