Acceptable Win Percentage

[JeffH]

I'm just curious what an acceptable win percentage is using RDSS. In the age of "wagercapping", where we are hiding horses that are below an acceptable odds level, I would think a decent percentage is about 45 to 50%. Again, just
trying to get an idea of what to expect using the method.

[Bill V.]

Hello JeffH
good question but hard to answer. It all depends on you.
What type of track do you wager? What type of wager?
Win only? or also place and show wagers ? multi horse bets horizontal races bets
Do you bet most races? Maidens 2yO turf maidens? 4.5 sprints ?
or do you bet non maiden dirt sprints only

Win Percentage in the RDSS / modern methodology is outdated
ROI is the key

[Bill V.]

From Doc Follow up 83

[JeffH]

Thanks for the response. I have 5 contenders per race, betting the top 2 if 5-2 or higher. I hide all tiered horses if less than 5-2 odds. I am still trying to determine if passing the race if my top 2 tiered horses are both less than 5-2 is the best way to go. Or if I should play the 3rd and 4th tiered horses in that situation. Again, I am new to the methodology, so many questions will answer themselves in time.

[JeffH]

I also bet several tracks per day (5 or 6) when I bet (once or twice a week). I am betting all races that meet my odds requirements; and I can rate all horses. I am doing this on paper right now. I am working on paclines, eliminating to 5 contenders, using the BL/BL to determine the tiers. Now I'm breaking my bets into 20 race cycles. As I said, most of my questions will answer themselves when I get 10 cycles completed (200 races). If what I'm doing is profitable, I will continue. If not, I will look at my weaknesses and adjust my betting.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by JeffH

I also bet several tracks per day (5 or 6) when I bet (once or twice a week). I am betting all races that meet my odds requirements; and I can rate all horses. I am doing this on paper right now. I am working on paclines, eliminating to 5 contenders, using the BL/BL to determine the tiers. Now I'm breaking my bets into 20 race cycles. As I said, most of my questions will answer themselves when I get 10 cycles completed (200 races). If what I'm doing is profitable, I will continue. If not, I will look at my weaknesses and adjust my betting.

Hi Jeff,

I think your plan of only betting on paper until you're making a profit is great. This was the path suggested by handicapping authority Dick Mitchell, whose 'Commonsense Betting' is a very good book on the subject, if you can find it. It was Mitchell's influence which finally persuaded Doc Sartin to construct the BL/Bl, and get involved with wagercapping, after mutuel prices on pace-advantage horses began deterioriating, as an increasing number of players became aware of the power of Sartin's work.

As others have said here, don't worry about win % (or 'hit rate' as some call it) - ROI is the thing to watch. I think it was possible to have a two-horse 70% win rate at Santa Anita this year and still lose money. Finding overlays is what the game is about. And re the issue of two-horse betting - this originated in Doc Sartin's desire to instill confidence in his clients by giving them a higher hit rate than they would have with one, but it has no mathematical grounding. If you're already confident in your ability, and don't mind hitting fewer winners, but making more money, you're better off with just betting overlays, as Dick Mitchell advised and successfully practiced.

Re betting the #3 and #4 ranked horses, nothing wrong with this, but it's worth noting that Doc Sartin formulated this strategy before Ted's recent improvement of the top two TE horses. In the 90s and earlier, the top four ranked horses won at a roughly even 20% rate - you can check through some Follow-Ups from that period to confirm. Since the BL/BL is virtually identical to both TE and Perceptor rankings, it's worth remembering that #1 TE now wins at roughly a 40% rate, #2, at 25%, #3 at 15%, and #4, at 9%. Of course, there is, at times, justification for betting the lower-ranked animals - something we discussed recently here - but, as Doc Sartin said, in one of the later Follow Ups, you really need a strong reason to do so - either odds or e/l.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[Profiler8]

I think the win percentage is not very important. If you play longshots and hit only 10% winners, you still can make a good profit. It depends on your wagering style. Some handicappers make a profit when they hit 60 % winners, others when they hit 10% winners.

Greetings
Tim

[socantra]

I haven't been very active lately, due to personal circumstances, but a few years ago, RichieP and I compared notes while both were using Validator 3 and wagercapping. We had very different styles, and I think both made more use of the 3rd ranked horse than it sounds like you'are doing. We agreed that we were both hitting in the range of 40% betting two horse win bets. By being more selective, I could move my win % up to around 45%, but my ROI went down, so I was quite pleased with 40%.

Dick...

[Charlie D]

Hi Jeff

Audio Collection > Kansas City Seminar July 91> Tapes #10 may be of help.

[JeffH]

Thanks for all of the positive and instructive feedback. I am very comfortable playing against the favorites. It has always been my philosophy that quality is more important than quantity when betting horses. Since discovering this methodology, I have been working at it. I have downloaded all of the paceline audios; and try to listen to at least 3 a day. My demo version expires in a week or so. Before I make the purchase (which I will do), I am trying to learn as much as possible. The casino in which I work has simulcast racing. Talk about on the job training!!