Mountaineer Selections 5-3

[chardale]

1st -- 1 - 2
2nd -- 2 - 3
3rd -- 3 - 7
4th -- 2 - 7
5th -- 3 - 4
6th -- 1 - 6
7th -- 5 - 8
8th -- 4 - 6
9th -- 1 - 7
10th -- 2 - 6

[SilentRun]

[QUOTE=chardale;
1st -- 1 - 2
2nd -- 2 - 3
3rd -- 3 - 7
4th -- 2 - 7
5th -- 3 - 4
6th -- 1 - 6
7th -- 5 - 8
8th -- 4 - 6
9th -- 1 - 7
10th -- 2 - 6[/QUOTE]

I plan on playing Mountaineer also tonight but have not looked
at the field yet. It would be nice if you would explain a little
further as to why you are choosing these horses.

Thnx,

Ernie

[chardale]

Ernie I just bet both horses to win in each race

[barb craven]

I think Ernie means what lines did you use to come up with these horses. I would be interested too as I play Mountaineer too.

4 hits. Did you bet real money?

I play as I go. Sorry I can't post then, but I learned the hard way that I have to play or post. I can't concentrate on both at the same time.

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by barb craven

I think Ernie means what lines did you use to come up with these horses. I would be interested too as I play Mountaineer too.

4 hits. Did you bet real money?

I play as I go. Sorry I can't post then, but I learned the hard way that I have to play or post. I can't concentrate on both at the same time.

Barb is correct. I wanted to know what is the justification behind your picks ?
The lines, energy ,pace...whatever.

Barb...If it is not too much trouble you could always post the RDSS panels and reasons after the race.
You seem to have a good handle on Mountaineer. My record with Mountaineer
is spotty. I could always learn something.

Ernie

[SilentRun]

For this race there was an overlay in the place and show pools.
This is based on a small amount bet to place and show for specific horses
vs the total amount bet in those pools (For all horses) This concept is clearly explained in
"Money Secrets at the Racetrack" by Barry Meadow.

There was a huge ratio in the show pools for the 4 and 7 horses. Specifically
about 30:1 to 40:1. I.E Total Show Pool / Show pool for (4 & 7) = 30:1 to 40:1.
I did not have enough time to take a screen shot of the show pool but I
had the 4 and 7 to show. (Result Chart below)
Didn't bet to win though. (The 4 won at a nice price).
Both these horses were in my top 5 RDSS contenders.

For me the horse has to be in my top 5 to consider this
type of wager. This is definitly an uncommon event as
I usually track the show pools for these overlays and I think a 10:1 ratio is very good.

I find that this is a good strategy to mitigate your losses on
your win bets. I recall that the good doctor mentioned this strategy in one
of the "Follow Ups" but I cannot cite the issue #.

Thought this would be interesting to post.

Ernie

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

For this race there was an overlay in the place and show pools.
This is based on a small amount bet to place and show for specific horses
vs the total amount bet in those pools (For all horses) This concept is clearly explained in
"Money Secrets at the Racetrack" by Barry Meadow.

There was a huge ratio in the show pools for the 4 and 7 horses. Specifically
about 30:1 to 40:1. I.E Total Show Pool / Show pool for (4 & 7) = 30:1 to 40:1.
I did not have enough time to take a screen shot of the show pool but I
had the 4 and 7 to show. (Result Chart below)
Didn't bet to win though. (The 4 won at a nice price).
Both these horses were in my top 5 RDSS contenders.

For me the horse has to be in my top 5 to consider this
type of wager. This is definitly an uncommon event as
I usually track the show pools for these overlays and I think a 10:1 ratio is very good.

I find that this is a good strategy to mitigate your losses on
your win bets. I recall that the good doctor mentioned this strategy in one
of the "Follow Ups" but I cannot cite the issue #.

Thought this would be interesting to post.

Ernie

I think you looked at this the wrong way. It had nothing to do with the show pool on any horse other than the favorite.

There is no mystery here. Some "bridge jumper" bet a lot of money on the favorite to show and the favorite ran out of the money. THAT is the reason for the show prices being so high.

It is a rare event, but it does happen.

In case you don't know what a "bridge jumper" is, it's a guy who bets "the ranch" to show on a horse and then the horse runs out of the money. Then he goes and jumps off a bridge!! It's an old terminology.

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I think you looked at this the wrong way. It had nothing to do with the show pool on any horse other than the favorite.

There is no mystery here. Some "bridge jumper" bet a lot of money on the favorite to show and the favorite ran out of the money. THAT is the reason for the show prices being so high.

It is a rare event, but it does happen.

In case you don't know what a "bridge jumper" is, it's a guy who bets "the ranch" to show on a horse and then the horse runs out of the money. Then he goes and jumps off a bridge!! It's an old terminology.

Say the favorite ran in the money.....this does not change the amount of money
bet to show on the other contenders that ran in the money. It only means
that the favorite would provide a lousy show price. Hence if the 4 and
7 ran in the money (along with the favorite) they would still be an overlay and
would they not still provide a nice show price ?

Ernie

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by SilentRun

For this race there was an overlay in the place and show pools.
This is based on a small amount bet to place and show for specific horses
vs the total amount bet in those pools (For all horses) This concept is clearly explained in
"Money Secrets at the Racetrack" by Barry Meadow.

There was a huge ratio in the show pools for the 4 and 7 horses. Specifically
about 30:1 to 40:1. I.E Total Show Pool / Show pool for (4 & 7) = 30:1 to 40:1.
I did not have enough time to take a screen shot of the show pool but I
had the 4 and 7 to show. (Result Chart below)
Didn't bet to win though. (The 4 won at a nice price).
Both these horses were in my top 5 RDSS contenders.

For me the horse has to be in my top 5 to consider this
type of wager. This is definitly an uncommon event as
I usually track the show pools for these overlays and I think a 10:1 ratio is very good.

I find that this is a good strategy to mitigate your losses on
your win bets. I recall that the good doctor mentioned this strategy in one
of the "Follow Ups" but I cannot cite the issue #.

Thought this would be interesting to post.

Ernie

Just thought you might be interested in seeing this. At MNR on 5.31.10, in race #9, there was another odds on favorite with A TON of money wagered on it to show that ran OUT OF THE MONEY, creating "HUGE" show prices.

http://equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/MNR053110USA9.pdf

As I did last time, I looked at the races both before and after this race. In this race there was a total of more than $170,000 wagered in the win,place and show pools. In the race just before this and in the race just after it, there was a total of $46,000 and $43,000 respectively wagered in the win, place and show pools. As you can see once again, a VERY LARGE AMOUNT of money was wagered on a favorite that ran out of the money, which in turn, created these huge show payoffs. It's the only way this happens.

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Just thought you might be interested in seeing this. At MNR on 5.31.10, in race #9, there was another odds on favorite with A TON of money wagered on it to show that ran OUT OF THE MONEY, creating "HUGE" show prices.

http://equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/MNR053110USA9.pdf

As I did last time, I looked at the races both before and after this race. In this race there was a total of more than $170,000 wagered in the win,place and show pools. In the race just before this and in the race just after it, there was a total of $46,000 and $43,000 respectively wagered in the win, place and show pools. As you can see once again, a VERY LARGE AMOUNT of money was wagered on a favorite that ran out of the money, which in turn, created these huge show payoffs. It's the only way this happens.

Thanks for posting the race very interesting. Your point is solid. Actually I was playing MNR
on 5/31 but switched off after the 5th race. Not that I would have had the winner
much less the show horses but I am going to run the race through RDSS
anyway.

Ernie