Top 3 Things - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 04-08-2007, 09:41 AM

Bob Cochran had tried to get this rolling once but it didnt fly so I thought I would try again.What are the top 3 things you are looking for when picking a paceline?It can be less or more if you would like.WHAT IM NOT LOOKING FOR IS PEOPLE POSTING THINGS JUST TO ARGUE WHAT SOMEONE HAS PICKED ON THEIR LIST.Im hoping some of you in the closet pace and cappers will respond as well.I think a list of this kind could be beneficial to everyone.

1) Can the horses run against the projected pace of today's race

2) Are the horses in current form

3) Can the horses run in today's class of the race

Hope to get some feedback out there from the usual suspects and you zombies as well.Have a Happy Easter.Jeff

tom · 04-08-2007, 10:37 AM

HE to you too, Jeff.

I looks for races that are similar to today's conditions, where the horses did not run abberantly, and where the pace was reasonably close to today's projected.
The less adjusting I have to use, the better.

Maybe we could pick a race or two, and post what line we picked and why?
I'd be interested.

admin · 04-08-2007, 10:51 AM

Top 3

1. Best of the last 3 Speed ratings at a comperable class distance
surface

2. Within 5 points of the favorite or the ave of the contenders

3. What it does against the projected pace of todays race

Bob Cochran · 04-08-2007, 11:02 AM

good morning everyone. The knee replacement is healing well. I must learn to walk up and down stairs in a normal manner, it will take time. I haven't been able to sit at the computer for any length of time because of the stiffening
efect causing the knee to lock up.

I feel good enough today to post these few remarks about 3 things i do when
handicapping a race.

1. eliminate non- contenders using the lack of races and/or work-outs
eg: no race and/or work-out in the last 23 days.

2. no life in 1 of it's alst 2 or 3 races barring legitimate excuses.

3. I confine my main wagers to Freshened and Lay-Off horses who have been
raced or worked into what i consider competitive racing condition.

Hope this helps Jeff.

gl45 · 04-08-2007, 11:08 AM

Before pacelines, I must pick the horses that I think will improve in today's race. Once I have the contenders, and only then, I'll choose the pacelines that I think are in line with the projected pace.
My robotic approach to contender's selection:
1) Read Race Condition
2) Box score for consistency
3) Dates of recent races
4) Last 4 races horse's performance for form analysis. Pace and Speed ratings
5) Class, how the trainer manipulated the horse to enter him in today's race
6) Workouts, is the horse working out for today's race
7) Odds of past recent races.
8) Jocks
9) Find the horse's negative signs, that would not make him a contender.

lbj

winbets · 04-08-2007, 09:57 PM

Top 5 Total Pace ratings horses will almost always have the winner

RichieP · 04-09-2007, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lbj

Richie,
are you talking to me?
Pino

Morning Pino
NO I wasn't.

I deleted the post that I felt was personally offensive.

Any personal or derogatory attacks on an individual will be deleted immediately. Debate is fine. The other stuff is NOT.

This board is NOT the place for that.

Ciao
Richie

Bob Cochran · 04-09-2007, 09:10 AM

What are the top 3 things you are looking for when picking a paceline??

Jeff , i think everyone should be reminded of the original question which
started this thread.

JimG · 04-09-2007, 09:42 AM

I don't have 3 things, only 1.

I try to pick the paceline that I think most closely represents how I think the horse will run today.

How do I determine that? Through years of observation and experience. I look for things like trainer changes, jockey changes, layoffs, form cycles, class changes, equipment changes, makeup of current race as it pertains to early pace, post postition, track bias, etc. The class of horse and track can make a big difference. Picking pacelines for Saratoga is very different from picking pacelines for Mountaineer. Recency certainly matters and if I think 2 lines are representative of the effort I expect the horse to give today I will normally pick the most recent of the two lines.

I know this may not be classic Sartin, but it is how I do it.

Jim

shoeless · 04-09-2007, 05:59 PM

Bob,Your right I apologize for getting sidetracked.Winbets thanks for the reply but TPR wouldnt be a way of picking pacelines I think it's more for contenders.Jeff

04-08-2007, 09:41 AM	#1
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,650	Top 3 Things Bob Cochran had tried to get this rolling once but it didnt fly so I thought I would try again.What are the top 3 things you are looking for when picking a paceline?It can be less or more if you would like.WHAT IM NOT LOOKING FOR IS PEOPLE POSTING THINGS JUST TO ARGUE WHAT SOMEONE HAS PICKED ON THEIR LIST.Im hoping some of you in the closet pace and cappers will respond as well.I think a list of this kind could be beneficial to everyone. 1) Can the horses run against the projected pace of today's race 2) Are the horses in current form 3) Can the horses run in today's class of the race Hope to get some feedback out there from the usual suspects and you zombies as well.Have a Happy Easter.Jeff

04-08-2007, 10:51 AM	#3
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	pace lines Top 3 1. Best of the last 3 Speed ratings at a comperable class distance surface 2. Within 5 points of the favorite or the ave of the contenders 3. What it does against the projected pace of todays race

04-08-2007, 11:02 AM	#4
Bob Cochran Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 329	3 things good morning everyone. The knee replacement is healing well. I must learn to walk up and down stairs in a normal manner, it will take time. I haven't been able to sit at the computer for any length of time because of the stiffening efect causing the knee to lock up. I feel good enough today to post these few remarks about 3 things i do when handicapping a race. 1. eliminate non- contenders using the lack of races and/or work-outs eg: no race and/or work-out in the last 23 days. 2. no life in 1 of it's alst 2 or 3 races barring legitimate excuses. 3. I confine my main wagers to Freshened and Lay-Off horses who have been raced or worked into what i consider competitive racing condition. Hope this helps Jeff. Last edited by Bob Cochran; 04-08-2007 at 11:04 AM. Reason: clarity

04-09-2007, 09:10 AM	#8
Bob Cochran Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 329	top 3 things What are the top 3 things you are looking for when picking a paceline?? Jeff , i think everyone should be reminded of the original question which started this thread.

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04-08-2007, 10:37 AM	#2
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	HE to you too, Jeff. I looks for races that are similar to today's conditions, where the horses did not run abberantly, and where the pace was reasonably close to today's projected. The less adjusting I have to use, the better. Maybe we could pick a race or two, and post what line we picked and why? I'd be interested.

04-08-2007, 11:08 AM	#5
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	Before pacelines, I must pick the horses that I think will improve in today's race. Once I have the contenders, and only then, I'll choose the pacelines that I think are in line with the projected pace. My robotic approach to contender's selection: 1) Read Race Condition 2) Box score for consistency 3) Dates of recent races 4) Last 4 races horse's performance for form analysis. Pace and Speed ratings 5) Class, how the trainer manipulated the horse to enter him in today's race 6) Workouts, is the horse working out for today's race 7) Odds of past recent races. 8) Jocks 9) Find the horse's negative signs, that would not make him a contender. lbj

04-08-2007, 09:57 PM	#6
winbets AlwNW1X Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 6	Top 5 Total Pace ratings horses will almost always have the winner

04-09-2007, 09:42 AM	#9
JimG Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 992	I don't have 3 things, only 1. I try to pick the paceline that I think most closely represents how I think the horse will run today. How do I determine that? Through years of observation and experience. I look for things like trainer changes, jockey changes, layoffs, form cycles, class changes, equipment changes, makeup of current race as it pertains to early pace, post postition, track bias, etc. The class of horse and track can make a big difference. Picking pacelines for Saratoga is very different from picking pacelines for Mountaineer. Recency certainly matters and if I think 2 lines are representative of the effort I expect the horse to give today I will normally pick the most recent of the two lines. I know this may not be classic Sartin, but it is how I do it. Jim

04-09-2007, 05:59 PM	#10
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,650	Bob,Your right I apologize for getting sidetracked.Winbets thanks for the reply but TPR wouldnt be a way of picking pacelines I think it's more for contenders.Jeff