Fractals: What can they tell us? - Pace and Cap

kahunab · 07-20-2026, 12:56 PM

I have often wondered about the Fractal ratings on the BL/BL screen, so I decided to analyze how well they predicted Win, Place, Show, Exactas and Trifectas with our almost 4900 race database. (Remember that to standardize our findings we did not adjust lines. All our lines are chosen by Best Perceptor Last 3 Comparable.) Here is the findings in a PDF document that shows all the comparisons. What do you think?

FRL_Surface_Distance_Compact_Comparison.pdf

shoeless · 07-20-2026, 01:24 PM

What does FRL mean?

Nice presentation

Jeff

kahunab · 07-20-2026, 01:30 PM

Jeff,
Frl is short for Fractals.

Frl-E is the Early Fractal, Frl-L is the late Fractal and Frl-N is the Neutral Fractal.

Dick

Ted Craven · 07-20-2026, 05:02 PM

Thanks for the detailed study Dick. An underused set of Factors.

What use do you make of this data? How does it help you refine your contender and betting choices, so far? Do you find it helps narrow betting prospects in ways that other factors (VDC, BLBL, Profitline/PrimePower, Rx3) do not?

Or was this an inquiry so far to see what's what - if there was anything useful?

Ted

DELMARGRANT · 07-20-2026, 10:29 PM

Nice chart thanks!

shoeless · 07-21-2026, 12:08 PM

Thanks, Dick, for the explanation and good job

I think Dan could add to this

Jeff

kahunab · 07-21-2026, 01:32 PM

Ted,
I will try to answer your questions one at a time by breaking them out.

What use do you make of this data?

What prompted the study was I noticed in my handicapping how often a good Frl-E score was a part of the Win and Place horses profile. I still select my contenders with the RMath scores, RX3 and the Leverage Pace scores. When used together these 3 are very powerful contender selectors.

Name: CD9 1May LP.jpg
Views: 160
Size: 128.8 KB

Name: CD9 1May LP.jpg
Views: 160
Size: 128.8 KB

How does it help you refine your contender and betting choices, so far?
I then use the BL/BL screen and New Pace to select my Key horse. Fractal scores are a great help in making my choice for Key and Companion horses.

Name: CD9 1May BLbl - Copy.jpg
Views: 151
Size: 128.6 KB

Name: CD9 1May BLbl - Copy.jpg
Views: 151
Size: 128.6 KB

Name: CD9 1May NewP.jpg
Views: 162
Size: 93.0 KB

Do you find it helps narrow betting prospects in ways that other factors (VDC, BLBL, Profitline/PrimePower, Rx3) do not?
No but it does add another handicapping tool to the tool box. Based on the analysis data below, if we know that the exacta is in the top 5 Fractals ~83%, I think that helps us pick our exacta horses. According to this data we can reach the 55% solution by boxing the top 4 Early Fractal horses in Dirt Sprints.

Name: FRL Top 5.jpg
Views: 152
Size: 26.9 KB

Name: FRL Top 5.jpg
Views: 152
Size: 26.9 KB

Or was this an inquiry so far to see what's what - if there was anything useful?

I just did the study this last week, so I have not used the data from the study all that much. I do think that the Early Fractal becomes more powerful with cheaper tracks and cheaper horses, but I don’t have the definitive data to prove it.

shoeless · 07-21-2026, 03:07 PM

Dick

Thanks again for latest post, easy to understand

Jeff

shoeless · 07-22-2026, 11:36 AM

Dan doesn't use this my mistake

AwesomeAgain · 07-31-2026, 08:23 AM

Read The Follow-Up #74 page 11. It is a hidden gem in regards to Fractals and its been hidden in plain sight! All the best! And Excellent work as always!

07-20-2026, 12:56 PM	#1
kahunab Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Colorado Posts: 312	Fractals: What can they tell us? I have often wondered about the Fractal ratings on the BL/BL screen, so I decided to analyze how well they predicted Win, Place, Show, Exactas and Trifectas with our almost 4900 race database. (Remember that to standardize our findings we did not adjust lines. All our lines are chosen by Best Perceptor Last 3 Comparable.) Here is the findings in a PDF document that shows all the comparisons. What do you think? FRL_Surface_Distance_Compact_Comparison.pdf __________________ Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow

07-20-2026, 01:30 PM	#3
kahunab Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Colorado Posts: 312	Jeff, Frl is short for Fractals. Frl-E is the Early Fractal, Frl-L is the late Fractal and Frl-N is the Neutral Fractal. Dick __________________ Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow

07-20-2026, 05:02 PM	#4
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,238	Thanks for the detailed study Dick. An underused set of Factors. What use do you make of this data? How does it help you refine your contender and betting choices, so far? Do you find it helps narrow betting prospects in ways that other factors (VDC, BLBL, Profitline/PrimePower, Rx3) do not? Or was this an inquiry so far to see what's what - if there was anything useful? Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Revisiting Fractals	Psychotic Parakeet	General Discussion	3	08-09-2021 03:25 AM
Fractals	ginag2	RDSS Documentation -- All Versions	2	08-28-2018 06:55 PM
Question about TS on fractals..	lone speed	RDSS	2	01-12-2013 05:10 PM

07-20-2026, 01:24 PM	#2
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,609	What does FRL mean? Nice presentation Jeff

07-20-2026, 10:29 PM	#5
DELMARGRANT Grade 1 Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 148	Nice chart thanks!

07-21-2026, 12:08 PM	#6
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,609	Thanks, Dick, for the explanation and good job I think Dan could add to this Jeff

07-21-2026, 01:32 PM	#7
kahunab Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Colorado Posts: 312	Ted, I will try to answer your questions one at a time by breaking them out. What use do you make of this data? What prompted the study was I noticed in my handicapping how often a good Frl-E score was a part of the Win and Place horses profile. I still select my contenders with the RMath scores, RX3 and the Leverage Pace scores. When used together these 3 are very powerful contender selectors. How does it help you refine your contender and betting choices, so far? I then use the BL/BL screen and New Pace to select my Key horse. Fractal scores are a great help in making my choice for Key and Companion horses. Do you find it helps narrow betting prospects in ways that other factors (VDC, BLBL, Profitline/PrimePower, Rx3) do not? No but it does add another handicapping tool to the tool box. Based on the analysis data below, if we know that the exacta is in the top 5 Fractals ~83%, I think that helps us pick our exacta horses. According to this data we can reach the 55% solution by boxing the top 4 Early Fractal horses in Dirt Sprints. Or was this an inquiry so far to see what's what - if there was anything useful? I just did the study this last week, so I have not used the data from the study all that much. I do think that the Early Fractal becomes more powerful with cheaper tracks and cheaper horses, but I don’t have the definitive data to prove it. __________________ Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow

07-21-2026, 03:07 PM	#8
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,609	Dick Thanks again for latest post, easy to understand Jeff

07-22-2026, 11:36 AM	#9
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,609	Dan doesn't use this my mistake

07-31-2026, 08:23 AM	#10
AwesomeAgain Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: West Melbourne, Florida Posts: 260	Read The Follow-Up #74 page 11. It is a hidden gem in regards to Fractals and its been hidden in plain sight! All the best! And Excellent work as always!