Preakness

[Mitch44]

Preakness
1. Contender. It’s an exceptional horse that can win 3 races in a row and to be so young. Like good horses this one only does what he has to win. On pace he’s 12 lengths behind, I expect him to rise to the occasion again. Doesn’t need to lead and has tactical speed to mow them down in the stretch. 5-1 is generous for odds and I suspect it to be bet down. $9.00 would be an overlay. Loves Lrl. Perhaps this is the year for a local horse to take it. Meet the Pars for this race. Gets tested today. Couple of nice works so maintains its form. Also is a fighter. Only does what’s needed and is an unknown factor.
2. A useful horse that’s in the money a lot but never wins. A Maiden up against these winners that will still be a Maiden when this is over.
# 3. Has finally come to form in last 3 with Blinkers added and improved with each race, these young horses can change dramatically in just a week once the trainer has it figured out. Can dig in, a fighter and can overcome trouble in a big field. This horse is an unknown factor until the race is over like many in here. At 30-1 odds the risk reward is there for a bet even for place in an EX.
# 4. Non-Contender, don’t know why its even in here except it’s a Calumet horse and if you’re not in it you can’t win it. Toss
# 5. On the improve, its last Speed Rat. was carried over a longer distance as proof of improvement. Gr. 1 horses don’t lose 4 races in a row. Trainer is capable but the horse isn’t, Toss.
#6 Couldn’t meet pace demands in last and today’s pace will be hotter. I don’t think it’ll run its 3r Fr. Lost 3 in a row with a very capable trainer. Top w/out since last. Toss.
#7 Has shown good speed at 6 F and can rate. Only 1 route which he needed. Has great potential and been working for this. 15-1 M/L . This one could be anything and a big surprise. I don’t think its odds will go down.
# 8 Stepping up in class with poor figures. Toss
# 9 Unknown factor, throw out last as horse was in all kinds of trouble. Gets much better jock today that can keep it out of trouble. Brown has it ready or it wouldn’t be in here. True ability unknown & still must prove it. Contender. Blinkers off 24% 9-2 but will probably be bet down.
#10 On this horse’s best it can win. Needs to settle and rate on lead & so far hasn’t. Terrible 3rd Fr and high deceleration after burning out. Hasn’t put it all together. Most likely will chase the speed again and back up in last Fr. Sometimes they all of a sudden get it. Tough to totally ignore and not very keen on it at all.

11. Needed last and been training and working toward this. Poor trainer in Graded Stakes and may be best with Lasix.
12. Not sure this one can handle the pace that coming at him today. Did have a lot of trouble in last and a cleaner trip can help. Will have prove it stepping up in class and pace. Toss
13. Lacks consistency and an in and outer, didn’t handle pace in last and doubt it can in this. Toss
This is another tough 3-year-old race that contains a bunch of unknown horses and factors. Best approach is a decent price.

Picks. 1- 5-9—12
Don’t bet the house and best of luck.
Mitch44 AKA “The Monkey.”

[Lt1]

Good Luck Mitch
Tim

[Mitch44]

Thanks Tim.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Today’s summary
Today is a classic example designing bets based on Hcp. And watching odds to make necessary changes. In race’s 7 & 11 I bet 3 horses to win and made profits in both races. Anytime you can get 5-2 on your lowest odds horse bet all 3 of them. It’s no brainer.
No one ever studies my bets, get the full result charts and then check out my bets. Betting is a personal thing as I have no idea what your bankroll is, or comfort level, experience etc. I can not do it for you. If I bey a horse going off at 90- would? I’ve done that Once I zero in on a horse, it getting bet regardless of odds.
You’ll notice I mainly played DD, P-3 & P-4 and win bets. It’s easier to pick winners then place of show horse. Most times your burning money won those bets that can better be deployed. Take a look at how much $$ your burning up on those bets.
Here’s my whole day of bets & Summary.




COMPLETED:e7a58-527ee LRL #14 $10 Win 7, 8, 9, 10 none $40.00

Mitch44"The Monkey"
$0.00
- $40.00
COMPLETED:ac1f6-eabce LRL #14 $4 Exacta 7, 8, 9, WT, 7, 8, 9, 10 none $36.00
$0.00
- $36.00
COMPLETED:75be8-b4bac LRL #14 $10 Win 7, 9, 10 none $30.00
$0.00
- $30.00
COMPLETED:7e286-e56b9 LRL #14 $0.50 Trifecta 7, 8, 9, WT, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, WT, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 none $18.00
$0.00
- $18.00
COMPLETED:5bac8-21689 LRL #13 $4 Double 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 13, WT, 6, 7, 8, 9 none $112.00
$0.00
- $112.00
COMPLETED:6a938-97952 LRL #12 $4 Exacta 1, 3, 4, WT, 1, 5, 11 none $32.00
$0.00
- $32.00
COMPLETED:00d05-f1cf0 LRL #12 $7 Double 1, 3, 4, WT, 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10 none $126.00
$343.70
+ $217.70
COMPLETED:f82a7-2e880 LRL #11 $0.50 Pick-3 4, 7, 8, WT, 1, 3, 4, WT, 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10 none $27.00
$300.10
+ $273.10
COMPLETED:3ed3c-0ff2c LRL #11 $0.50 Pick-3 4, 7, 8, WT, 1, 3, 4, WT, 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10 none $27.00
$300.10
+ $273.10
COMPLETED:b5bfd-34dc3 LRL #11 $8 Win 4, 7, 8 none $24.00
$79.20
+ $55.20
COMPLETED:d67f6-562e5 LRL #11 $7 Double 4, 7, 8, WT, 1, 3, 4 none $63.00
$362.60
+ $299.60
COMPLETED:71b95-8d79e LRL #10 $6 Double 1, 3, 4, WT, 4, 7, 8 none $54.00
$325.80
+ $271.80
COMPLETED:3c64a-b752d LRL #10 $0.50 Pick-4 1, 3, 4, WT, 4, 7, 8, WT, 1, 3, 4, WT, 1, 3, 5, 9, 10 none $67.50
$1,489.75
+ $1,422.25
COMPLETED:54ea0-e4f0e LRL #10 $1 Pick-3 1, 3, 4, WT, 4, 7, 8, WT, 1, 2, 3 none $27.00
$0.00
- $27.00
COMPLETED:4d9d1-1c1a3 LRL #9 $5 Double 6, 7, 8, WT, 1, 3, 4 none $45.00
$120.00
+ $75.00
COMPLETED:6851a-15663 LRL #9 $8 Win 5 none $8.00
$0.00
- $8.00
COMPLETED:12f88-ca688 LRL #9 $7 Win 6, 7, 8 none $21.00
$36.40
+ $15.40
COMPLETED:4bf54-a4f80 LRL #9 $0.50 Trifecta 5, 6, 7, 8, WT, 5, 6, 7, 8, WT, 5, 6, 7, 8 none $12.00
$0.00
- $12.00
COMPLETED:2c007-14ee4 LRL #10 $1 Double 1, WT, 4, 7, 8 none $3.00
$0.00
- $3.00
COMPLETED:7eb8d-a5959 LRL #10 $7 Double 3, 4, WT, 4, 7, 8 none $42.00
$380.10
+ $338.10
COMPLETED:c277a-2c14e LRL #9 $7 Win 7, 8 none $14.00
$0.00
- $14.00
COMPLETED:02931-7edf1 LRL #9 $7 Double 5, 6, 7, 8, WT, 1, 3 none $56.00
$0.00
- $56.00
COMPLETED:21e04-6acb2 LRL #8 $5 Double 2, 8, WT, 5, 6, 7, 8 none $40.00
$0.00
- $40.00
CANCELED:355ba-92359
LRL
#8
$6 Double 2, 3, 6, WT, 5, 6, 7, 8 none $72.00
-
-
COMPLETED:db233-94c43 LRL #8 $10 Win 6, 8 none $20.00
$0.00
- $20.00
Total (accepted wagers): $944.50 $3,737.75 $2,793.2

[Mitch44]

Summary
Number of Bets
24
Win Percentage
41.67%
ROI
295.74%
Wagered
$944.50
Payoff
$3,737.75
Profit/Loss
$2,793.25

Mitch44 "The Monkey"

[cratman]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Summary
Number of Bets
24
Win Percentage
41.67%
ROI
295.74%
Wagered
$944.50
Payoff
$3,737.75
Profit/Loss
$2,793.25

Mitch44 "The Monkey"

Very impressive. Thanks for sharing.

[Lt1]

Outstanding job my friend.
Tim

[The Pook]

Good work Mitch.

Well since this thread is called Preakness I will show my Preakness. Done using Matchup concepts using raw figures only. No feelings about what horses might or might not do. Straight forward with win betting only. I usually bet two horses. Sometimes one. Big fields though cause me to spread to three or four. I hit the Derby spreading to four and followed up with this Preakness.

Played LRL and WO simutaneously. The Preakness was a big part of the +$2150.00 @LRL with +$4220.00 @WO. ROI for the day was +75.8%

Pook

(I know this is the selections forum and I should post actual bets first, but I didn't and neither did the author of this thread.)

[Lt1]

Nice job Mike. It doesn't matter of you didn't post before the race the ticket says it all.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Great job Mike, big Congrats in a very tough race. It dam sure didn't warrent betting on the favorite.

Mitch44