False Early horses, %Med Tool Etc.

[Mitch44]

Something that needs to be learned is that ; Any Early horse that can not carry its speed into the 2nd FR is a false Early and is a non contender.

This also occurred in a race last night that was being discussed, the #1.

The Velocity-POH is one of my favorite screens and I always consult it. One can do many things with it.

The way racing is structured E horse's that can't carry their speed 6F are never winners and move to lesser tracks. I.e. From Parks to Pen Nat or Mountaineer. There they card few 6F races and more 5.5F races and horses that can't make it there and win at 5.5 F go down to much cheaper tracks and they tend to run a lot of 5F races where the best of these E and in many cases they are also are NTL horses with % Med over 70%.

You'll find these at major tracks also, however they are more prone to be running at lesser tracks.

Mitch 44 AKA "The Monkey"

[Mitch44]

Horses with a %Med of 70% and higher are Need to Lead horses and will fight to get it from the time the gate opens. If they can't get the lead they will exhaust themselves trying to get it, therefore energy used early is unavailable late their 3rd FR will be even lower because of the early exertion.

Lt1 and I and also many old Sartin have been eliminating NTL horses for years.

[Mitch44]

The way racing is structured E horse's that can't carry their speed 6F are never winners and move to lesser tracks. I.e. From Parks to Pen Nat or Mountaineer. There they card few 6F races and more 5.5F races and horses that can't make it there and win at 5.5 F go down to much cheaper tracks where they tend to run a lot of 5 F races. As you decent the class of tracks. you'll run into more NTL and false Early horses, in most cases they are also are NTL horses with % Med over 70%.

You'll find these at major tracks also, however they are more prone to be running at lesser tracks. This is the way racing is structured, think of it like baseball and their sent down to the minors, No curve ball gone and no 3rd FR gone and their running style. Its somewhat the old saying of cheap speed . A horse that can't get 6F at Parks may go to Pen National or Mountaineer where they card more 5.5 races. From there down to another class of tracks such as Evd.

There are even tracks that run only 4 or 4.5 F races. Of course with each strep downward the purses get smaller. And if you play the smaller tracks and bullrings you'll run into many more NTL and high % Med. horses. You can find rave with nothing but all NTL horses in it.

Smart trainers and owners will move horses around etc. to take advantage of this and their running style.

Mitch44

[gptx]

Thank you Mitch,

I am very new to %med. and one thing I am trying to figure out is a situation like the following.

Say you have a race with 3 or so E horses (visual) with QSP's of 6,7,8. Another horse is labeled as a P4 (visual).

The %med of the E's are between 70.4-71.0, while the P4 %med is 70.6.

The P4 is labeled as an "E" in %med column, as are the E horses, but will that P4 run with the E's at the first call based on the 70.6 %med. or will it run in it's usual pressing style, say third positionally, 2 lengths behind?

Thanks

[Mitch44]

Even with one NTL horse in a race it'll have an effect on the race. Early Presser and Pressers will let it go and do to superior Total Pace/ Energy will over take it. In this situation it could still get a Place or show depending on the make up of the field.
One caveat here is that if there are 2 NTL horses don't necessarily think they will go go out there and set it up for a closer. Because if one is out of form or breaks bad etc. the duel between them may never set up. In that case its common for the NTL to loaf on the leas and steal the race. Demand at least 3 NTL horses for them to effect the race.

When there is only 1 NTL horse and it doesn't carry its speed into the 2ndFR, plus has low total Energy or Total Pace it can and should be tossed.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Even with one NTL horse in a race it'll have an effect on the race. Early Presser and Pressers will let it go and do to their superior Total Pace/ Energy will over take it. In this situation it could still get a Place or show depending on the make up of the field and totally destroy your EX or TRI. While these horses are non winners they can have an effect on the race and field, therefore if their truly in your top 5 its better to keep it in and mentally downgrade it. If low total Energy, high % Med. and doesn't carry its speed into the 2nd FR toss it. Tossed them as stated earlier and if low energy it should not be in your top 5 for readouts. If in your top 5 keep it in as the program will rank it low and it won't be considered for win.

One caveat here is that if there are 2 NTL horses don't necessarily think they will go go out there and set it up for a closer. Because if one is out of form or breaks bad etc. the duel between them may never set up. In that case its common for the NTL to loaf on the lead and steal the race. Demand at least 3 NTL horses for them to effect the race.

When there is only 1 NTL horse and it doesn't carry its speed into the 2ndFR, plus has low total Energy or Total Pace it can and should be tossed.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Jesse;

If all are E horses and %Med is over 70% they'll all fight for the lead as soon as the gates open. Those slight differences are meaningless in your example, I.e. 70.0 or 70.4 etc. the difference is insignificant. The one labeled P4 in you example isn't correct it also is an Early horse. Its like that because you used the Visual ESP and that's something totally different and used only by matchers. Don't use that!

Mitch44

[gptx]

OK thanks,

So the P4 is actually an E and will run as such based on % median and will be susceptible to spending to much early energy as the others.

ALWAYS use the %med labeled running style for how the race projects to be run early?

Thanks

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by gptx

OK thanks,

So the P4 is actually an E and will run as such based on % median and will be susceptible to spending to much early energy as the others.

ALWAYS use the %med labeled running style for how the race projects to be run early?

Thanks

With respect to Mitch - there are many would would disagree that the Visual Running Style (Quirin Speed Points-QSP aka Visual Pace Bias-VPB and RS column on the upcoming Leverage/Pace version) is not useful, and that the %Median energy distribution ESP Running Style column is the ONLY way to go.

Study both (once you get your hands on RDSS Leverage/Pace, next week). Study the recommended usage of BOTH. Sometimes they agree, sometimes they do not.

If you accept someone else' directions, sometimes you'll get their same results, except when they applied another nuance they learned over decades of practice - in which case they 'll win and you'll lose. Thus -- study your OWN protocols until you can apply them consistently and track your results - while learning from as many others as you can handle - and who will be around to guide you.

Again, with respect.

[gptx]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

With respect to Mitch - there are many would would disagree that the Visual Running Style (Quirin Speed Points-QSP aka Visual Pace Bias-VPB and RS column on the upcoming Leverage/Pace version) is not useful, and that the %Median energy distribution ESP Running Style column is the ONLY way to go.

Study both (once you get your hands on RDSS Leverage/Pace, next week). Study the recommended usage of BOTH. Sometimes they agree, sometimes they do not.

If you accept someone else' directions, sometimes you'll get their same results, except when they applied another nuance they learned over decades of practice - in which case they 'll win and you'll lose. Thus -- study your OWN protocols until you can apply them consistently and track your results - while learning from as many others as you can handle - and who will be around to guide you.

Again, with respect.

Thank you Ted and very true!!!

I am liking what I am seeing of Leverage/Pace very much and anxious to get it next week!

Speaking of Leverage /Pace, I have been watching the tutorial videos and realized I know nothing about NewPace. Are their any resources here at Pace and Cap to learn about NP or would it be beneficial to order the seminar from Dave Schwartz?

Thanks again