2. Process for Finding Companion Horses

[Ted Craven]

Following is the process of determining Companion horses to bet with the Key horse, with a few examples.

[kahunab]

Finding the Companion Horses

After finding our Key horse we look in the following places for the Companions to complete our exacta or trifecta.

1. Other candidates for the Key horse. 30% of the time two of these horses will come in together.
2. New Pace horses. 75% of the time two of the board (WPS) horses will be New Pace horses.
3. Contra-energy horses ala the 55% solution. That is Best Early in a Late race or Best Late in an Early race.
4. Horses strong in RMath’s 4 Score and/or RX scores, such as the 5 below.
5. Segments screen support. Generally speaking, Early -Look to the Left side. Late- Look to the Right side. Total – Look at Both sides. Observe the power of the Double Zero horse.
Three Examples:

Thistledowns 2

Here we note that the 1 horse is virtually the same as the 6 but is the #1 TPR while the 6 is #5 TPR. 80+% of the time the Key is in the top 3 TPR. He was an easy choice for the Key. From this screen we would get the 5 along with the other 3 new pace horses, 6,4,8. The question mark horse is the 2 who from above screen is a candidate for the Key horse. Note below that the 4 horse is the swing horse. He can run Early or Late. In this race even though he is the #1 Late horse, he broke from the gate and wired the field. The 8 trailed and finally folded.



The 1 horse seems stronger than the 6 and the 2 on the New Pace screen so our choice is confirmed. The 5 is also at the top of the list here for companion status. The 4 is also confirmed as the #1 late horse and the swing. A definite candidate for companion status. The 8 is the number one early who meets the 62% to get the lead.



Here is where making the final choice leans more toward art than science. In my mind, I will key the 1at 2.5/1 and play the 5, the favorite at 0.9/1 for sure and the Swing horse and #1 Late 4 at 11.7/1 . With 7 horses I will choose 1 or 2 others as companions from the 2 at 14/1, the 6 at 6.9/1 and the 8 at 13.8/1.


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Haakon 47

[kahunab]

Thistledowns 7

Here in the 7th, we have a tougher job. The hard call is the call between the 6 and the 8 for the Key. I felt the 3 was out contention for several reasons. One, an incomplete 4 score, two, 3rd in total energy and three, his LPR was 4th in a late biased race. I chose the 8 because he was #1LPR . The new Pace screen leans a bit toward the 6. But the segments screen shows the 8 a bit stronger on Late side of the screen. Our candidates for companions are the 6, for multiple reasons, ala our list above, the 3, the 4, the 5 and the 7.



Note here we have 4 earlys, the best is the 5 who can’t get the 62% needed for the lead. The 3 looks the best on our leverage screen, F1 on the segments screen belongs to the 5. More support for a late race with all these Early horses. Note here that the 4 horse, the number one Early, is also denoted as a swing horse indicating that he can run early or late. Swing horses often do well as in both of the examples we have here and should be considered.



So, here we have the 8 as the key. The companions are the 6 at 1.8/1, the 7 at 8.1/1, the 4 at 1.7/1. With these kind of odds I would use just 3 companions or not play at all. If I were to play the trifecta here I would add the 5. Note the double zero circled above in a late race. If we look at the Leverage screen, we note the 5 is the only horse to distribute his energy early but is also listed as #1EPR along with the 6. Contra energy. The 1 horse broke first and led at the ¼. The 5 took over and led to the Stretch. The 4 and the 8 took over and the 4 won by ¾. The 6 broke 8th and ran 8th to the top of the stretch and finished 4th. The 3 broke 6th and finished 6th. The race ran late.


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[kahunab]

Philadelphia Park 7

Here we see a pretty straight forward Key horse pick. We have 20 Early Speed points, the 7 is number one late, and as we look at the 3 blue boxes he is the strongest rated horse. The 2 is well rated but is an early horse rated 3 early. Our numbers indicate he will face pressure from the 1, who is Early and rated #1 EPR and the 8 who is an EP rated number 2 EPR. The 7 horse fits the pace scenario better than the 2 or the 1 our other contenders for the Key.



As we look at the NP screen we see several thing. The 7 is the #1 late New Pace horse in a late biased race who is also the purple swing horse. Which means he can run both Early and Late. He is also the best SR horse. Note also that the 2 and the 1 both are 77 on the high end of their graphs which indicates they have the top end speed to push each other, adding evidence to a pressured early race. So in terms of companions in a late race the top 4 with our graph lined up on low for a pressured race gives us our W, P, and S horses. We are also using at least 3 of our New Pace horses. The question mark horse is the 2 who is the number 2 New Pace Early horse, so one of the 4. He did run 4th.



One final look for confirmation on the Segments screen. Note the double zero 8 horse. Always a threat but most often in a late race. Note that on the right side, Late race, our 7 finishes first. It confirms our Key choice. We key the 7 with the 1,5,8 and possibly the 2.



So there is this thing called Racing Luck. We will end on that note. Luck does enter the picture. We are on the right horses but if the 8 wins we lose our key bet. However, he is taken down to 3rd and we look really smart for keying the 7 with the 5, 1 and 8.


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Haakon 47