1. Process for Finding the KEY Horse in Leverage/Pace

[Ted Craven]

Process for Finding the Key Horse

1. Use the Best of the Last Three Perceptor Selection Strategy option in RDSS to choose pacelines for each runner. Note: At least initially, check the past performances and make sure all the horses have at least 4 lines. When you gain a better feel for how New Pace works you can adjust your strategy.

2. Select the contenders for Key horse by using Top 5 BL/BL horses. Go to the Leverage/Pace screen in RDSS. Keep the top 5 BL/BL horses. The KEY horse will come from these horses 98-99% percentage of the time.

3. The Blue Arrow qualifiers (i.e. KEY Contenders indicator) on the Leverage/Pace screen (usually 2-3 horses for dirt races and up to 5 for turf races) are based on the parameter values of VT, CVT, BVT and BVTR. An arrow horse is one that meets the parameter limits for all four of these factors. KEY horses will meet these parameters 85 % of the time based on our current research. If we include Maidens in the study, we get 75% within parameters for Maidens. The KEY horse will not always have the lowest scores of the arrow horses which is why we investigate which of the arrow horses, BEST fits the race shape that we expect. Remember that the arrow values are only based on the single race chosen as the best of the last three Perceptor values.

4. Look at the Visual Pace Bias (VPB) tool and number (Sum of the Top 3 QSP/Quirin Speed Points) as a key factor to indicate how the race will be run. The QSP point total is shown at the bottom right-hand side of the Entries screen, and also just above the Running Style (RS) column on all Analysis screens (currently only the Leverage/Pace screen), also on the NewPace screen. Generally speaking when the point total is less than or equal to 12, the race will be biased Early, 13-17 points indicate a neutral pace, and 18 points or more indicate a highly pressured race that favors late runners.

3. The far right hand panel on the Leverage/Pace screen shows the LPR, EPR and TPR ranks for each horse. If the race is biased early look at the highest ranked EPR horses within the top 3 TPR horses; if its biased late, look at the highest ranked LPR horses within the top 3 TPR horses. The Key horse will be in the top 3 TPR horses 83-85% of the time. This will give you a sense of which horses SHOULD be strongest in this race.

4. With the likely shape of the race in mind, go to the SEGMENTS screen and note the top three horses. Look for confirmation that the VPB score points to a horse that meets the criteria. Also note the horse shown on the graph as being the leader in segment F1.

5. Remember, at this point we are NOT looking for the winner, but the horse most likely to finish first or second - in other words, our KEY horse.

6. Next, go to the NewPace (NP) screen to further understand how the race will most likely be run in order identify the KEY horse which best fits the pace scenario. If the race has low or medium VPB points, use the HIGH or Unpressured option; if the race has heavy pressure use the LOW or Pressured option.

7. A word of caution on the use of the NP screen. Review the past performances of the horses in the race. If the horse is inexperienced, say three or less races, the low and high range values shown on the NP graph often have a wide variance as the horse learns to race. As the horse matures the gaps between good and lesser races should narrow. If they do, then use of the highest ranking numbers is confirmed. If the worst and best races occur sporadically in the PPs its an indication that running to the highest of the ranking numbers is less likely. It is also good practice to review at least the last half of the races in the PPs to see if the low and high NP values are worse, the same, or better than what the NP graph shows in that smaller snapshot of the horses performance.

8. Learn to pick the KEY horse by working enough races so that you have the confidence that you can be correct a high percentage of the time. I would suggest working 20-40 practice races and note the outcome of your choice. Keep a record how often the horse you choose finished either first or second, and thus became, the KEY horse. You do not have to work current races in order to practice this technique. You can do it at any track, surface or distance. You might find that your work is better on dirt or turf or in sprints or in routes. This is just another way of handicapping yourself.

9. Next, we will address the steps you should take to pick the COMPANION horses that go with the KEY horse that will provide a way to capture both Exacta and Trifecta wins at a reasonable price.

Bill Lyster